Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

March 22, 2014

Possible SLW buy based on SLW : Silver ratio

Filed under: *OPEN TRADES, Long Stock — Tags: , — Jeff @ 9:17 am

Ed Steer: For the week:
- Gold was down 3.4
- The HUI lost 8.6%.
This is normal

- Silver was down 5.5%
- Silver stock index closed lower by only 2.9%.
This is not normal. Typically the index should be down over 10% (if not 5,000%!). The typical explanation is that strong hands are buying silver shares and silver and the silver shares should go up soon. When the top is near, silver should keep going up, and silver shares should under preform.

Graphically, the SLW : silver ratio is rising, suggesting more upside in general. If true, for the next few days, SLW is a buy on a stop of about 25.5, with stop loss a bit under 24.5.

SLW Ag ratio MAR 22 2014

March 18, 2014

Economic events and cosmology, specifically inflation (update 1, Mar 2014)

Filed under: Systems — Jeff @ 12:45 am

In the book The Big Bang Never Happened: A Startling Refutation of the Dominant Theory of the Origin of the Universe Mr Lerner noted that the major cosmology theories seemed to be associated with dominant economic themes. I don’t have the examples handy, but recall that the “inflationary universe” addition to the broken Big Bang Theory happened near the late 70′s, etc.

The article talks about String Theory. Might some of the quotes be like what Mr. Paulson says?:

  • The title is “A Universe [bailout] Built for Us”.
  • “Although string [TARP] theory is enormously complex, requiring a total of 11 dimensions to work correctly…”
  • “… the basic equations [plan] have as many as 10^1,000 possible solutions … this means the theory [plan] could never be proved right or wrong [sucker!]. Some critics say this dooms string theory [the plan] … Others insist is is yet another clue that the multiverse is real [trust us, our plan will work].”
  • With the amount of paper money being printed up, “Eternal Chaotic Inflation” sounds right.

Update March 18, 2014
Major discovery bolsters Big Bang theory of universe
As far as I know, there is still zero evidence that directly supports the current iteration of the big bang theory. I like the Null Physics alternative. Funny thing is that the article should be about gratuity waves, yet focuses a lot more on inflation.

Suppose the dominant cosmology is just a projection of collective consciousness. If so, the linguistics of the article are lovely.

  • “This has been like looking for a needle in a haystack, but instead we found a crowbar,” said Pryke. [It's a blunt instrument.]
  • “These results are not only a smoking gun for inflation, they also tell us when inflation took place and how powerful the process was,” Loeb said. [Big inflation is coming.]
  • the advance adds to our knowledge of one of the three key pillars of modern cosmology [life] — inflation, dark matter and dark energy. [Dark matter/energy: we don't even know what 2/3 of reality is. But we know the other 3rd is inflation.]
  • “Without inflation we would not be here,” he said. [Can it be more blunt?]
  • Alan Guth, who proposed the idea of inflation in 1980, described the latest study as “definitely worthy of a Nobel Prize. [The articles is even tied to actual physical inflation!]
  • … evidence of this super-fast inflation the would be considered “most significant cosmological discovery in nearly two decades…” [This inflation / default will be bigger than any event of the past 2 decades.]
  • “I doubt many cosmologists [people] will get much sleep tonight.” [Foreshadowing]

The primary issue is that observed reality does not mesh with the big bang theory unless large amounts of inflation are incorporated.

An update of the above chart. Notice the percent changes are about 0 to 40%, not -20 to +20 percent.

AMC Mar 18 2014

Obviously the system is different since about 2008/2010.


The monetary base has gone up a lot, and yet, the economy in general is just kind of puttering g along. (Not taking into account overall credit, which is like money {for a while}.)
AMB_mar 18_billions

Bottom line: Serious inflation might, finally, be on deck.

February 13, 2014

SLW move so far looks strong.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff @ 5:44 pm

Today even when silver and SPY were dipping, SLW was rising. Pretty good show of relative strength.

The HUI : SPY weekly ratio has tentatively broken out.

HUI SPY feb 13 2014

The SLW : silver ratio is also looking like SLW price can easily go higher: SLW is leading silver by a lot. The orange arrows show that the ratio has already broken out to the upside. Typically a sign of strength.

SLW silver daily feb 13 2014

Update: And just the fact that price had an outside up day and did not really test the January high and 170 EMA — that also shows strength.

SLW daily feb 13 2014

February 9, 2014

January Snippets

Filed under: Snippets — Jeff @ 2:02 pm

Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better. – Albert Einstein

The difference between a rut and a grave is the depth. — Gerald Burrill

Blame is not for failure, it is for failing to help or ask for help. — Jorgen Vig Knudstorp, CEO of The Lego Group It changes everything. Suddenly it becomes in my interest to be transparent on my real weaknesses, my real forecast, because I know I will not be blamed if I fail, but if I fail to help or ask for help. — Yves Morieux: As work gets more complex, 6 rules to simplify

  • Understand what other people do.
  • Reinforce the integrators.
  • Expand the amount of power available.
  • Increase the need for reciprocity.
  • Expose employees to the shadow of the future.
  • Place blame on the uncooperative.

Things are either of the light (win-win), or the not light. There is no gray in the decision, just in the manifestation. — me

There are two ways of spreading light: to be the candle or the mirror that reflects it. — Edith Wharton

Time is the ultimate tester (and breaker) of all things – as such, time equates to volatility. Mother Nature is the master of incremental advancement (biological and societal evolution) through multi-dimensional long run trial and error (serendipitous random tinkering).

Many “Soviet-Harvard” type errors come via disregard of time gaps – the delayed distribution of hidden costs and consequences (mistaking absence of evidence for evidence of absence). Those who suffer from neomania – love of the new – arrogantly assume we can improve on designs we don’t truly understand, even when nature has taken centuries, or even millennia, to perfect what clearly works.

Because existence is such a non-linear phenomenon – e.g. our hunter gatherer ancestors did not get an “average” or “balanced” nutritional intake each day, but rather feasted on some occasions and fasted on others – it bears out that Mother Nature (and thus our ancient biological systems) have intrinsically adapted to this nonlinearity, and even found ways to benefit from it (moderate level stressors strengthen the bones and muscles, random fluctuations in air pressure intake can benefit the lungs etc.).

The principle of “via negativa” suggests that, in terms of taking action, subtraction often trumps addition because it is so hard to improve on nature’s time-tested original (without dilutive side effects). Infant mortality and life-saving surgery aside, the simple exhortation to stop smoking (give up cigarettes) has had more positive health impact than virtually all “modern medicine” advances of the 20th century. — Embrace Optionality and Don’t Drink Orange Juice: “Antifragile” Review (Taleb ond nature)

Uncertainty sucks! I found that “trying” to let go of attachment was too hard. So I gave up, which allowed peace to flow. Instead of fighting the attachment and pain of attachment, I thanked the attachment for illustrating: how much I cared, what I cared about, and that I was not all the way balanced in this area. — Me

How about some Rumi
- Whatever you are seeking, is seeking you.
- Lovers don’t finally meet somewhere. They’re in each other all along.
- If the house of the world is dark, Love will find a way to create windows.
- As you live deeper in the heart, the mirror gets clearer and cleaner.
- Wherever you stand, be the soul of that place.
- Stay in the spiritual fire. Let it cook you.
- Try something different. Surrender.

October 16, 2013

CORRECTION: TSN, not NGVC: buy after possible ABC correction. -50% (update 1, feb 9)

Filed under: IBD Bounty, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff @ 12:46 pm

Buy Jan 30 calls for 1.30.
Stop loss is a close a bit below point C.

NGVC daily oct 15 2013

+ The “IBD Bounty”, a very simple breakout system.

Updated February 9 2014
Apologies — I mixed up 2 posts. The above chart is correct, but the ticker should be TSN. I am deciding, that for this strategy, that stop losses triggers when price goes down significantly for a few days. To the point it’s very unlikely to ever be profitable. Assuming the environment is basically a bull market. The reason why is the call that cost 1.30 could have been sold for at least 2.50 in January. Instead, it was sold for about a 50% loss.

TSN daily FEB 9 2014


October 4, 2013

September Snippets

Filed under: Snippets — Jeff @ 2:42 pm

I do less shorting. Over 90% of my 7 figure trades have come from being long a leading stock breakout. — Dan Zanger

Don’t short valuation. Short obsolescence, debt, and fraud. — Porter Stansberry

Why I’ll Never Worry About What the Government’s Going to Do Next: Shopping trumps politics. — Dan Ferris

Love is like sunshine. It brings a golden glow 2 it’s beholder’s face and a warm feeling all over their body. It awakens souls and opens eyes and; when its over, it leaves billions of small memories called stars 2 remind the world, that it still exists.

From the promoters that texting while driving is super bad… Well it turns out less that 2% of all fatal accidents in the US are associated with texting.

Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt. — Abraham Lincoln

The truth will set you free, but at first, you will hate it. — Dr. Steven Greer

The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark. — Michelangelo

Blessed are the cracked, for they let in light. — Groucho Marx

When you want to be an artist or entrepreneur everything conspires to keep you from that because its ultimately scary. Putting yourself out there to be judged. — Ep. 152: Dan Andrews Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

What can I do for you so that you will pay me $1,000? — ibid

The single most important motivator is making progress in meaningful work. — Teresa Amabile

September 23, 2013

NGLS – Buying due to small breakout. +3% (update 1, Jan 6)

Filed under: +0 to +5%, IBD Bounty — Tags: — Jeff @ 8:12 am

Bought March 2014 50 call for $300.
Stop loss is a close below 47ish.
Partial profits target is new highs.

NGLS daily sep 23 2013

The “IBD Bounty”, a very simple breakout system. Watching AWAY.

Updated January 6, 2014. +3%
Decided to sell for a small profit a few trading days ago. (Sorry, just catching up now — normally I post trades in near real time.) There were 3 past times the position could have been (partially) sold for a bigger profit. But that did not happen since I was “waiting” for a bigger move.

NGLS daily Jan 5 2014

September 20, 2013

The “IBD Bounty”, a very simple breakout system. Watching AWAY.

Filed under: IBD Bounty — Tags: — Jeff @ 9:57 am

There will likely be significant volatility, but stocks are headed much, much higher. Specifically…

The lists change weekly, and who wants to go long 100 stocks, sometimes at a local top? So select those that have been resting a bit (month or 2), and buy when they leave that base.

  • Enter when Trader Vic’s near or medium term down trend line is broken to the upside. This is the catalyst. Trading above a significant reference point tends to “show” price wants to go up more than down.
  • Buy shares, or in-the-money 6 month calls. These are momentum stocks. If they haven’t gone up after a few months, something is not right.
  • Initial stop loss below nearest low, or rising trend line, or EMA’s.
  • Exits. 50% at first resistance, or a big gap up, etc., the rest with a close below the 20 EMA.
  • Postion size: Risk/use 5% of available capital.

AWAY sep 19 2013 daily

Update 1, October 5:
- Entry: Why wait until the trend line is broken? Buying the stock around point 1 would have resulted in a 15% drawdown. And if the overall market had gone lower, this stock could have gone much lower. Note that because a new low was made the trend line is redrawn (blue).
- The ABC correction is ubiquitous. It flushed out the weak hands. Chances are about 50/50 the correction is over. AWAY’s correction so far seems to be a complex correction. That’s okay. Not breaking the trednline to the upside kept us out of the position.
- Initial stop loss: Note price never closed below lower support (point 2).
- Options verses shares: Shares would have resulted in a 15% drawdown. For 100 shares, that would be about $450. (Maybe much more. Stocks like this can drop substantially.) A JAN 2014 30 call options would have cost about $450  and right now is worth about $285. In other words, long dated at or in the money options can reduce risk.

AWAY daily oct 5 2013

September 13, 2013

Coffee – Nibbling long again -34% (update 1, Sept 17)

Filed under: Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff @ 7:43 am

Buy DEC 24 call for 1.75
+ Commercial COT still very net long
+ Price just broke out of the 2 year down trendline.

JO daily sep 12 7.18 pst

JO – Buy Coffee (update 2 August 21 – 41%)

Update 1, September 17:
Price broke back below the trend line invalidating the reason for the trade so time to exit. -34%

JO daily sep 17 8.20.2013

September 11, 2013

10 Dating Ideas Almost Nobody Wants To See, Hear, Or Know

Filed under: 10 Ideas, Editorials — Jeff @ 8:51 pm

Disclaimer: Musings, in general, I have no proof, April Fools…

  • First, give some space and relax:
  • No sex until you see, understand, and accept, their shadow side. Everyone is a package; there are no line item vetoes.
    • Soon tech will be to the point where we can tell our bed at night, “Make me half zebra with iridescent stripes that shed rose petals” and billions of nano bots will have us ready by morning. So we will shroud with increasingly pretty and distracting covers. Learn how to get the heart now — talk about gender identity issues!
    • Conversely, you are having sex with their shadow too. Hmmm… do you have any idea what it looks like? The fangs? The claws? The abject stupid? Beer goggles can’t fix it!!
  • Try not to break item 1 too soon. ;-) But…
    • Waiting until everything is known and perfect will doom the species. Even moderation shouldn’t be taken to excess.
  • Partners should bring out the best in each other. Everything we want is already inside of us. Nice, warm and fuzzy, but…
  • Dating sucks because consciousness attracts consciousness, and 90% of us have trouble letting go of baggage, thus, therefore, ipso facto, and a prima facie: duh, we have baggage.
    • If your dates consistently tend to be a !?#*@*@!!, list what you hate about them. 95% chance they are just mirroring your own baggage. So title the list, Things I Don’t Want To, But Might Want To, Change Someday Even Though It’s Definitely All Their Fault. Now pick one and sit with it until you understand it’s facets, and the heat dissipates. Doesn’t mean they are not still !?#*@*@!!’s, just that they are not driving your life off a cliff.
      • Now you don’t have to find a real therapist. Ironic! Because good therapists are rarer than good dates. That’s why a monk lifestyle seems so alluring and sexy.
      • Focus on what you do well. NOT baggage, unless it is in the way. Then, be optimistic! Maybe you only have one piece of baggage? Work though it and see if that was good enough.
  • Consider asking your date, “What do you want?” Be vulnerable first.
    • Defenselessness shows that you are comfortable with yourself and have some courage.
    • Shows your are not just mirroring what you think they want to hear that you think they want you to think you hear… too freaking confusing.
    • Makes people feel safer, and so, lie less.
  • Don’t gossip. Bonding over gossip is fun and easy, but then all you have is a hollow relationship based on disparaging others.
    • And those others will likely find out in seconds, probably from your date, hate your guts, key your car, and forever spread nasty gossip about you.
  • Be kind. Life is challenging. You will probably never see them again, unless you want a crappy relationship, so give them a complement. What  children remember most about parents? If they were kind or not.
  • Men, sorry: women are smarter and more capable than us, in multiple ways.
    • Historically, while we were running around chasing stuff that ran away from us (easy to bond over and rather fun until they chase us back), women were having to raise kids, get along with each other, grow food, make food, and be the last defense to marauders. They often let us think we are smarter to save the effort of being in a power struggle they win anyway.
    • Also historically, women had to deal with worrying about us not returning. Was our absence due to the allure of marauding another village’s women? Or were we painfully hobbling home half eaten? Women tend to like us, but this presents them with more work to do: Find another mate, or nurse us until we die from smelly infections, and then find another mate anyway. So, women like it when we return when we say we will return, and give them something valuable. This used to be called survival, now because it’s trivial for women to procure their own protein, this is called romance and it’s more complicated.
    • Men have to adapt: now the chase is to do something that uniquely speaks to a woman’s soul so that they know we are paying attention to them (not too their sister).
  • Women, sorry: We are confused with adapting from primarily protecting you and our children (our genes), to nicely supporting you and your children.
    • Historically “protection” and “nice support”, are mostly mutually exclusive. An effective protector tends to shoot first and ask questions later because empathetic ponderers are super easy to kill, making you and your kids more vulnerable. That’s why there are 10 times more psychopathic males than females.
    • And protectors need to be roaming about looking for trouble to keep battles away from home. But males are still social creatures, yet are often away from the supportive social nexus.
    • So, historically, young males are lonely jerks who need a lot of testosterone to stay alive but then are sexually frustrated and make poor snap decisions. Currently there are more around because war changed from physical, to economic and informational.
    • The old pattern of dealing with stuff was hard to let go of because it’s so alluringly simple:
    • Can I hump it?
      • Yes, then do so. (But don’t bring it home!) Then find something else to encounter.
      • No? Well, can I eat it?
        • Yes, then do so, and bring some back home, stay for a bit, then go protecting again.
        • No? Well, can I kill it?
          • Yes, then do so. Then find something else to encounter.
          • No? Well, umm.. can I hump it?
  • “Power is never granted, only taken”. Lead the way with grace to receive what you want.

leaf heart

Zenith expressions of joy are universal, pure, and innocent; best romantic framework known…

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