Buy Jan 30 calls for 1.30.
Stop loss is a close a bit below point C.
Buy Jan 30 calls for 1.30.
Stop loss is a close a bit below point C.
I do less shorting. Over 90% of my 7 figure trades have come from being long a leading stock breakout. — Dan Zanger
Don’t short valuation. Short obsolescence, debt, and fraud. — Porter Stansberry
Why I’ll Never Worry About What the Government’s Going to Do Next: Shopping trumps politics. — Dan Ferris
Love is like sunshine. It brings a golden glow 2 it’s beholder’s face & ND a warm feeling all over their body. It awakens souls & opens eyes & when its over, it leaves billions of small memories called stars 2 remind the world, that it still exists.
From the promoters that texting while driving is super bad… Well it turns out less that 2% of all fatal accidents in the US are associated with texting.
Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt. — Abraham Lincoln
The truth will set you free, but at first, you will hate it. — Dr. Steven Greer
The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark. — Michelangelo
Blessed are the cracked, for they let in light. — Groucho Marx
When you want to be an artist or entrepreneur everything conspires to keep you from that because its ultimately scary. Putting yourself out there to be judged. — Ep. 152: Dan Andrews Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
What can I do for you so that you will pay me $1,000? — ibid
The single most important motivator is making progress in meaningful work. — Teresa Amabile
Bought March 2014 50 call for $300.
Stop loss is a close below 47ish.
Partial profits target is new highs.
There will likely be significant volatility, but stocks are headed much, much higher. Specifically…
The lists change weekly, and who wants to go long 100 stocks, sometimes at a local top? So select those that have been resting a bit (month or 2), and buy when they leave that base.
Update 1, October 5:
- Entry: Why wait until the trend line is broken? Buying the stock around point 1 would have resulted in a 15% drawdown. And if the overall market had gone lower, this stock could have gone much lower. Note that because a new low was made the trend line is redrawn (blue).
- The ABC correction is ubiquitous. It flushed out the weak hands. Chances are about 50/50 the correction is over. AWAY’s correction so far seems to be a complex correction. That’s okay. Not breaking the trednline to the upside kept us out of the position.
- Initial stop loss: Note price never closed below lower support (point 2).
- Options verses shares: Shares would have resulted in a 15% drawdown. For 100 shares, that would be about $450. (Maybe much more. Stocks like this can drop substantially.) A JAN 2014 30 call options would have cost about $450 and right now is worth about $285. In other words, long dated at or in the money options can reduce risk.
Buy DEC 24 call for 1.75
+ Commercial COT still very net long
+ Price just broke out of the 2 year down trendline.
Update 1, September 17:
Price broke back below the trend line invalidating the reason for the trade so time to exit. -34%
Disclaimer: Musings, in general, I have no proof, April Fools…
- Jeff Clark, excellent trader, suggests a small rise of about $5, then that could be it. But that could fail and things.
But as the price of oil approaches the $113 target level and the threat of military action runs its course, oil is likely to form an important intermediate-term top.
- CCI’s looking weak.
The following was sent to a lot of people via a list. The response:
I don’t know why? The following seems to be a very rational and concrete way to handle a complicated situation:
I like Bruce Schneier’s take on security. A great way to evaluate options is to put a price tag on all the variables so they can be easily compared.
A) Hydrant information is already public, just not convenient. And to some degree, pipe information is probably knowable “enough” just from connecting dots on a map because small pipes flow into bigger pipes, and the start and end of lines are obvious.
- The cost to an attacker to gather this data is very low.
- The cost of keeping this data (servers, managing and monitoring access) is ???
- The benefits (in $$$) to making parts of this info transparent so it can be used is ???
- There are benefits to local people taking ownership of local infrastructure — they take care of it more. What is that worth ($$$)?
“Security by obscurity” has low value.
B) Past threats
- What was the cost of each way stopping past threats?
- What is the cost of each preventive measures? Including false positives.
Typically, standard police work probably stopped the threats, and or the majority of threats would have a minor effect.
C) The public’s fears are typically very irrational and disproportionate.
- What is the real cost, in dollars, of mitigating each of those fears?
- Rank all threats via probability.
- What is the cost of mitigating real threats?
Present this information to the public and ask them how much money they want to spend, in aggregate, and per person. It’s educational without being preachy or boring, takes pressure off policymakers (who would prefer to go overboard to be able to say, “we did everything possible” rather than have a problem on their watch (I would!)), and people have an easy way to compare alternatives so discussion can be concrete.
D) Out of date data.
- Just indicate when updated. If it’s very important, the user can double check things.
E) The GIS data.
Applying the general 3 levels of threat:
- The opportunistic (stealing stuff from unlocked cars, etc.). Basic common sense (locks, gates) fixes the vast majority of this. GIS data is safe because these people don’t even know what GIS is — it has no value to them.- The moderately determined (people who deploy a moderate amount of resources). People could spend weeks in planning, join a company to get trust, passwords, etc. One rule of thumb is that roughly 75% of security problems are inside jobs. If true in this case, that automatically provides a ratio of problems to solve.
- The very well funded, typically government, military, etc. Basically can’t readily protect against them — too costly.
Mr. Schneier often says, after the obvious threats are addressed, it’s often better to allocate resources for monitoring and fast intervention and remediation, rather than on increasingly low risk reward situations. Darwin’s adaptability.
If the grass looks greener on the other side of the fence, it may be that they take batter care of it there . — Cecil Selig
Even moderation should not be taken to excess. — me
People are like stained-glass windows. They sparkle and shine when the sun is out, but when the darkness sets in, their true beauty is revealed only if there is a light from within. — Elisabeth Kübler-Ross
What is the only section of a grocery story a person can get stuck in for 10 years and thrive? The veggie section.
Be curious. Read widely. Try new things. What people call intelligence just boils down to curiosity. — Aaron Swartz
And we know that’s a measurement error because it’s messing up my data. – Shawn Achor: The happy secret to better work
Keep me away from wisdom which does not cry, philosophy which does not laugh, and greatness which does not bow before children. — Ghibran.
The skill of writing is to create context in which other people can think. — Edwin Schlossberg – Tim O’Reilly Some Lessons For Startups
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. — Richard Feynman
The maximum power principle can be stated: During self organization, system designs develop and prevail that maximize power intake, energy transformation, and those uses that reinforce production and efficiency. – H.T.Odum 1995
~ It has been pointed out by Boltzmann that the fundamental object of contention in the life-struggle, in the evolution of the organic world, is available energy. In accord with this observation is the principle that, in the struggle for existence, the advantage must go to those organisms whose energy-capturing devices are most efficient in directing available energy into channels favorable to the preservation [then thriving] of the species. – A.J.Lotka 1922
Quit the world. Quit the next world. Quit quitting. — Ram Dass
There are 10 kinds of people. Those that understand binary and those that don’t. — ?
An idea is something you have; an ideology is something that has you. — ?
Authority gone to one’s head is the greatest enemy of truth. — Albert Einstein
Good propaganda fools the people who see it. Great propaganda fools the people who make it. — Dan Neil
It’s not what you say, it’s what they hear. – Red Auerbach’s famous remark about basketball coaches talking to their basketball players
There’s nothing more practical than a good theory. — Kurt Lewin, considered to be the founder of social psychology.
The best criticism of the bad is the practice of the better. — Francis of Assisi
It’s hard to be militant in defense of moderation. – Garrison Keillor
An error is the more dangerous in proportion to the degree of truth which it contains. – Henri Frederic Amiel
When we feel good, we are allowing good. When we don’t feel good, we are not allowing good. — Abraham