Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

January 20, 2015

Snippets and quotes

Filed under: Just Watching — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:05 am

Hyperinflation unfolds when a government CANNOT issue debt so they print. — Martin Armstrong

A tiger doesn’t lose sleep over the opinion of sheep. — Zig

When small people begin to cast big shadows, it means that the sun is about to set. — Lin Yutang

A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: we did it ourselves. — Lao Tzu

How We Got Our (7) Kids in College by Age 12
… we never say “buy this or that curriculum” or “follow these steps and — presto! — your kids will get into college by 12.” What we do share is the advice that if we as parents LET OUR KIDS WORK AT THEIR OWN PACE, PROVIDE MATERIAL THAT THE KIDS ARE INTERESTED IN, AND NEVER HOLD THEM BACK, then they’ll begin to see amazing results. 

As a nation begins to prosper, it ALWAYS begins to import goods and it also invests its income outside the home country. This causes the current account to decline into negative territory yet it is reflective of a boom, not a bust. — Martin Armstrong on India

DEBT has always been the Great Destroyer of Civilization. It is the opium of governments since the dawn of time. — Martin Armstrong

Markets work. As prices move higher, new supplies are bound to be discovered and flood the market. It’s only a matter of time. — Porter Stansberry

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists. — 1935

Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. – Jack Bogle

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it—but in the end, there it is. – Winston Churchill

I began learning long ago that those who are happiest are those who do the most for others. — Booker T. Washington

An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile—hoping it will eat him last. — Winston Churchill

So we pour in data from the past to fuel the decision-making mechanisms created by our models, be they linear or nonlinear. But therein lies the logician’s trap: past data from real life constitute a sequence of events rather than a set of independent observations, which is what the laws of probability demand… It is in those outliers and imperfections that the wildness lurks. — Peter L. Bernstein

Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail. — Ralph Waldo Emerson

The greatest remedy for anger is delay. — Thomas Paine

Goal seeking emerges directly from a long-term drive to increase future freedom of action… Intelligence should be viewed as a physical process that tries to maximize future freedom of action and avoid constraints in its own future. — Alex Wissner-Gross

Mathematicians think in symbols, physicists in objects, philosophers in concepts, geometers in images, writers in impressions, and idiots in words — Nassim N. Taleb

An easy way to find out if people really know what they are talking about is ask:

  •  What is the error rate? A real study / scientist will have a number handy, or at least be able to address the topic in a sensible way. A fruadster will, at best say, “I don’t know”, worst make stuff up.
  • What is the sample population size? If there are a million of something, but only 10 are tested, probably meaningless. For simple studies, a very general rule of thumb is that the sample size needs to be at least 30.
  • What is the chance, with error rate, that that will happen to me?

August 7, 2014

SLW – Time to go long

Filed under: *OPEN TRADES, Long Calls, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:47 am

The SLW : Silver ratio keeps rising, and it looks like a mini breakout is holding.
Short March 2015 27 put @ 2.95
Long March 2015 27 call @ 2.55

No stop loss.

SLW daily AUG 7 2014

Update 1, Jan 20 2015
Well, it was not time to go long after all. Will likely be rolling over the options.

SLW daily 20 jan 2015

May 6, 2014

Long term trade: short VXX, UNG, long SYLD, FYLD, USCI (update 1, June 3)

Filed under: *OPEN TRADES, Short Stock — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 3:22 pm

Let’s track a $10,000 trade that takes advantage of contango, and value. The start time will arbitrarily be the first week of May and be updated every few months. It is going to be volatile 🙂

VXX weekly may 14 2014

UNG weekly May 4 2014

Update 1, June 3
I’m choosing not to include UNG because the case for it is less clear to me. Originally I included it because it would likely offset volatility. That’s not a very good reason. VXX is volatile. Might as well embrace it. So VXX is now 50% of this long term trade. So for the month of June, this trade is up 9% mainly because VXX is down 17% for the month.


Update 2, August 7
As of August 1, 2014, this portfolio is up 8%. For the sake of easy record keeping, profit loss calculations will stay the same. But for actual trading I decided to add a stop loss for when the VXX is very oversold. Unless one wants a set-and-forget system, it’s silly to remain short. So when the long term RSI or medium term RSI are around < 30, place a stop on the most recent significant high (short white line). Go short again after the rising trend line (long white line) is broken. Big uptrends are typically about 3 months long, yet price can rise almost 300%. It comes right back down again (historically), but why take the trip if there is an easy way to avoid it?

VXX daily AUG 6 2014

May 4, 2014

April snippets

Filed under: Just Watching — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:36 pm

The  best way to manage anything is by making use of its own nature. — Lao Tzu

You always learn more by studying when something doesn’t work. — Porter Stansberry

From Strenghts Finder 2.0 Amazon review, “We found that if your manager focuses on your strengths, your chances of being actively disengaged go down to one in one hundred. However, if your manager primarily focuses on your weaknesses, your chances of being actively disengaged are 22%, and if your manager ignores you, that percentage rises to 40%… It basically mirrors the psychology of raising kids — being completely ignored is the worst possible psychological state. You would actually feel better if your manager went from ignoring you to focusing on what you do wrong all the time, because then at least she’s paying attention to you.

The biggest threat to your wealth is not the government, the banks or market manipulators, says Rick Rule. It is almost always your own lack of conviction, courage, or knowledge… So don’t fear manipulation. Fear your own mistakes due to emotional decision-making and prejudices set by your experience in the immediate past.

“I have no contract with the United States government,” Bundy said. “I was paying grazing fees for management and that’s what BLM was supposed to be, land managers and they were managing my ranch out of business, so I refused to pay.” — ABC news (Awesome!! contracts, vs law, and contracts peacefully won for the first time in a long time. If the “law” “implies” that Mr. Bundy pays rent, then it also implies that the BLM manages well. That is all indirect communication and a management mess. Much better to use contracts that specify the responsibilities of each party, and the amends if not fulfilled.

Value converts everything into a social hieroglyphic … Obstacles in the path are not obstacles; they are the path … You were born an original, don’t die a copy. — ???

Wait for the wisest of all counselors, time. — Pericles

Good intelligence is 0.9 of any battle. — Napoleon

Order and simplification are the first steps toward the mastery of a subject. — Thomas Mann

Losing an illusion makes you wiser than finding a truth. — Ludwig Borne

I’d rather see folks doubt what’s true than accept what isn’t. — Frank A.  Clark

It is not who is right, but what is right, that is important. — Thomas Huxley

The  best way to manage anything is by making use of its own nature. — Lao Tzu

Managers are people who do things right, and leaders are people who do the right thing. — Warren G. Bennis

It’s gotta come from the heart, if you want it to work. — Susannah Clark

A champion is someone who gets up, even when they can’t. — Unknown

Try not to become a person of success but a person of value. — Albert Einstein

The richest person is not who has the most, but who needs the least. -— Unknown Author

Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the men of old; seek what they sought. -— Basho

The cure for boredom is curiosity. There is no cure for curiosity. -— Ellen Parr

Today I caught myself smiling for no reason… then I realized I was thinking about you. — Unknown

Look up: “…smart phones and dumb people…”

March 22, 2014

Possible SLW buy based on SLW : Silver ratio

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:17 am

Ed Steer: For the week:
– Gold was down 3.4
– The HUI lost 8.6%.
This is normal

– Silver was down 5.5%
– Silver stock index closed lower by only 2.9%.
This is not normal. Typically the index should be down over 10% (if not 5,000%!). The typical explanation is that strong hands are buying silver shares and silver and the silver shares should go up soon. When the top is near, silver should keep going up, and silver shares should under preform.

Graphically, the SLW : silver ratio is rising, suggesting more upside in general. If true, for the next few days, SLW is a buy on a stop of about 25.5, with stop loss a bit under 24.5.

SLW Ag ratio MAR 22 2014

Update 1, May 4 2014
And avoiding that down draft is why I like to buy on a stop. A small divergence seems to have marked a local bottom.
Ag SLW ratio May 4 2014

March 18, 2014

Economic events and cosmology, specifically inflation (update 1, Mar 2014)

Filed under: Systems — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:45 am

In the book The Big Bang Never Happened: A Startling Refutation of the Dominant Theory of the Origin of the Universe Mr Lerner noted that the major cosmology theories seemed to be associated with dominant economic themes. I don’t have the examples handy, but recall that the “inflationary universe” addition to the broken Big Bang Theory happened near the late 70’s, etc.

The article talks about String Theory. Might some of the quotes be like what Mr. Paulson says?:

  • The title is “A Universe [bailout] Built for Us”.
  • “Although string [TARP] theory is enormously complex, requiring a total of 11 dimensions to work correctly…”
  • “… the basic equations [plan] have as many as 10^1,000 possible solutions … this means the theory [plan] could never be proved right or wrong [sucker!]. Some critics say this dooms string theory [the plan] … Others insist is is yet another clue that the multiverse is real [trust us, our plan will work].”
  • With the amount of paper money being printed up, “Eternal Chaotic Inflation” sounds right.

Update March 18, 2014
Major discovery bolsters Big Bang theory of universe
As far as I know, there is still zero evidence that directly supports the current iteration of the big bang theory. I like the Null Physics alternative. Funny thing is that the article should be about gratuity waves, yet focuses a lot more on inflation.

Suppose the dominant cosmology is just a projection of collective consciousness. If so, the linguistics of the article are lovely.

  • “This has been like looking for a needle in a haystack, but instead we found a crowbar,” said Pryke. [It’s a blunt instrument.]
  • “These results are not only a smoking gun for inflation, they also tell us when inflation took place and how powerful the process was,” Loeb said. [Big inflation is coming.]
  • the advance adds to our knowledge of one of the three key pillars of modern cosmology [life] — inflation, dark matter and dark energy. [Dark matter/energy: we don’t even know what 2/3 of reality is. But we know the other 3rd is inflation.]
  • “Without inflation we would not be here,” he said. [Can it be more blunt?]
  • Alan Guth, who proposed the idea of inflation in 1980, described the latest study as “definitely worthy of a Nobel Prize. [The articles is even tied to actual physical inflation!]
  • … evidence of this super-fast inflation the would be considered “most significant cosmological discovery in nearly two decades…” [This inflation / default will be bigger than any event of the past 2 decades.]
  • “I doubt many cosmologists [people] will get much sleep tonight.” [Foreshadowing]

The primary issue is that observed reality does not mesh with the big bang theory unless large amounts of inflation are incorporated.

An update of the above chart. Notice the percent changes are about 0 to 40%, not -20 to +20 percent.

AMC Mar 18 2014

Obviously the system is different since about 2008/2010.


The monetary base has gone up a lot, and yet, the economy in general is just kind of puttering g along. (Not taking into account overall credit, which is like money {for a while}.)
AMB_mar 18_billions

Bottom line: Serious inflation might, finally, be on deck.

February 13, 2014

SLW move so far looks strong.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:44 pm

Today even when silver and SPY were dipping, SLW was rising. Pretty good show of relative strength.

The HUI : SPY weekly ratio has tentatively broken out.

HUI SPY feb 13 2014

The SLW : silver ratio is also looking like SLW price can easily go higher: SLW is leading silver by a lot. The orange arrows show that the ratio has already broken out to the upside. Typically a sign of strength.

SLW silver daily feb 13 2014

Update: And just the fact that price had an outside up day and did not really test the January high and 170 EMA — that also shows strength.

SLW daily feb 13 2014

February 9, 2014

January Snippets

Filed under: Snippets — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 2:02 pm

Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better. — Albert Einstein

The difference between a rut and a grave is the depth. — Gerald Burrill

Blame is not for failure, it is for failing to help or ask for help. — Jorgen Vig Knudstorp, CEO of The Lego Group

It changes everything. Suddenly it becomes in my interest to be transparent on my real weaknesses, my real forecast, because I know I will not be blamed if I fail, but if I fail to help or ask for help. — Yves Morieux: As work gets more complex, 6 rules to simplify

  • Understand what other people do.
  • Reinforce the integrators.
  • Expand the amount of power available.
  • Increase the need for reciprocity.
  • Expose employees to the shadow of the future.
  • Place blame on the uncooperative.

Things are either of the light (win-win), or the not light. Gray is in the manifestation, not the decision. — me

There are two ways of spreading light: to be the candle or the mirror that reflects it. — Edith Wharton

Time is the ultimate tester (and breaker) of all things – as such, time equates to volatility. Mother Nature is the master of incremental advancement (biological and societal evolution) through multi-dimensional long run trial and error (serendipitous random tinkering).

Many “Soviet-Harvard” type errors come via disregard of time gaps – the delayed distribution of hidden costs and consequences (mistaking absence of evidence for evidence of absence). Those who suffer from neomania – love of the new – arrogantly assume we can improve on designs we don’t truly understand, even when nature has taken centuries, or even millennia, to perfect what clearly works.

Because existence is such a non-linear phenomenon – e.g. our hunter gatherer ancestors did not get an “average” or “balanced” nutritional intake each day, but rather feasted on some occasions and fasted on others – it bears out that Mother Nature (and thus our ancient biological systems) have intrinsically adapted to this nonlinearity, and even found ways to benefit from it (moderate level stressors strengthen the bones and muscles, random fluctuations in air pressure intake can benefit the lungs etc.).

The principle of “via negativa” suggests that, in terms of taking action, subtraction often trumps addition because it is so hard to improve on nature’s time-tested original (without dilutive side effects). Infant mortality and life-saving surgery aside, the simple exhortation to stop smoking (give up cigarettes) has had more positive health impact than virtually all “modern medicine” advances of the 20th century. — Embrace Optionality and Don’t Drink Orange Juice: “Antifragile” Review (Taleb ond nature)

Uncertainty sucks! I found that “trying” to let go of attachment was too hard. So I gave up, which allowed peace to flow. Instead of fighting the attachment and pain of attachment, I thanked the attachment for illustrating: how much I cared, what I cared about, and that I was not all the way balanced in this area. — Me

How about some Rumi
– Whatever you are seeking, is seeking you.
– Lovers don’t finally meet somewhere. They’re in each other all along.
– If the house of the world is dark, Love will find a way to create windows.
– As you live deeper in the heart, the mirror gets clearer and cleaner.
– Wherever you stand, be the soul of that place.
– Stay in the spiritual fire. Let it cook you.
– Try something different. Surrender.

October 16, 2013

CORRECTION: TSN, not NGVC: buy after possible ABC correction. -50% (update 1, feb 9)

Filed under: IBD Bounty, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:46 pm

Buy Jan 30 calls for 1.30.
Stop loss is a close a bit below point C.

NGVC daily oct 15 2013

+ The “IBD Bounty”, a very simple breakout system.

Updated February 9 2014
Apologies — I mixed up 2 posts. The above chart is correct, but the ticker should be TSN. I am deciding, that for this strategy, that stop losses triggers when price goes down significantly for a few days. To the point it’s very unlikely to ever be profitable. Assuming the environment is basically a bull market. The reason why is the call that cost 1.30 could have been sold for at least 2.50 in January. Instead, it was sold for about a 50% loss.

TSN daily FEB 9 2014


October 4, 2013

September Snippets

Filed under: Snippets — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 2:42 pm

I do less shorting. Over 90% of my 7 figure trades have come from being long a leading stock breakout. — Dan Zanger

Don’t short valuation. Short obsolescence, debt, and fraud. — Porter Stansberry

Why I’ll Never Worry About What the Government’s Going to Do Next: Shopping trumps politics. — Dan Ferris

Love is like sunshine. It brings a golden glow 2 it’s beholder’s face and a warm feeling all over their body. It awakens souls and opens eyes and; when its over, it leaves billions of small memories called stars 2 remind the world, that it still exists.

From the promoters that texting while driving is super bad… Well it turns out less that 2% of all fatal accidents in the US are associated with texting.

Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt. — Abraham Lincoln

The truth will set you free, but at first, you will hate it. — Dr. Steven Greer

The greater danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high and falling short; but in setting our aim too low, and achieving our mark. — Michelangelo

Blessed are the cracked, for they let in light. — Groucho Marx

When you want to be an artist or entrepreneur everything conspires to keep you from that because its ultimately scary. Putting yourself out there to be judged. — Ep. 152: Dan Andrews Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

What can I do for you so that you will pay me $1,000? — ibid

The single most important motivator is making progress in meaningful work. — Teresa Amabile

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