Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

January 7, 2009

Long May coffee (update 2)

Filed under: Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:25 am

+ Commercial Traders seem to be net long at historically large values.
+ The down trendline has been broken yesterday with a small test today.
+ If price breaks up through the 34 EMA it could be keep going quite a bit.
+ Risk is pretty small: Stop loss is a bit below 111.60, say 111.30 and can be raised quickly if it is a true breakout.
+ The monthly CCI was recently below -200 on the continuous chart and is tuning up.
+ There have been 9 waves down since the August high (white numbers.
+ The May correlations at Moore Research are positive for the next week.
+ Today is a down day relative to yesterday.
On the monthly chart, price has broken below a long term trendline from 2002.
– The daily CCI only has a little more room to go up. But if a true breakout did occur, the daily CCI would stay overbought.

Action: Buy stop at 114.30, limit at 114.60; Stop loss at 111.30.

UPDATE Jan 6th: The buy stop was not elected. Back to observing.

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