Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

December 26, 2010

Apparently real weather forecasting! (up to 85% correct)

Filed under: Favorite Posts, Systems — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:13 am

“Meteorologists” are incorrect most of the time. They can’t even correctly forecast temps in sunny mid California a day ahead most of the time. So why would anyone listen to them for short or long term forecasts?? They obviously don’t understand the system. A breath of fresh air: Apparently Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction does!

“Standard meteorology models ignore solar and lunar factors and are associated with the failed science and falsified data of the CO2-based warmist view of climate and are bound to fail again and again.”

And he getting recognition with this month’s snow and cold forecast made in May 2010.

[Piers Corbyn] seems to get it right about 85 per cent of the time and serious business people – notably in farming – are starting to invest in his forecasts. … He looks at the flow of particles from the Sun, and how they interact with the upper atmosphere, especially air currents such as the jet stream, and he looks at how the Moon and other factors influence those streaming particles. He takes a snapshot of what the Sun is doing at any given moment, and then he looks back at the record to see when it last did something similar. Then he checks what the weather was like on Earth at the time – and he makes a prophecy.

Notice the theory is readily understandable, makes sense, and lists an accuracy number. Informative slide show.

Weather models typically use some of the most expensive computer systems and have low accuracy rates. While this person apparently does things with a laptop and public domain data and produces high accuracy rates. The irony! Also, points out a seeming tendency that once a system is understood, it does not take heroics to manipulate it.

Feb 27: Scientist spells out new theory of world temperature fluctuations This comment is fascinating:

…said Piers to the dinner guests in what must be one of the shortest scientific papers* in one of the most celubrious locations around…

Most things are conceptually simple, although in practice, after iteration, potentially complex appearing. So when a theory can be stated in a few sentences and seems reasonable, it’s time to pay attention. And again the “60 year cycle” idea crops up.

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