Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

January 24, 2011

Short March Crude on break of major uptrend line +1%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, Futures Trades, Mistakes — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:14 am

I will update the charts this weekend. For now:

Jan 21: Moved stop loss down to 89.875.

– Monthly, weekly and daily CCI all moving down.
– Price under the now declining 34 EMA.
– NR7 bar today and perpetual mini crud sitting on up trend line so if price wants to rise, it should soon. Otherwise price just might have been resting from the recent move and continue in the next day or 2.
The commercials are very net short and the funds are very net long. The commercials can usually get shorter while the funds probably can’t get much longer.

However — caution is warranted since the trend line on the perpetual futures QM is slightly, but significantly different: We could see a bounce.

Jan 23: Exited in night session at 89.462. Opps did not record entry of 89.55. +3% Actually +1%
A bit concerned about the trend line differences and would rather reenter the trade or pass.

Jan 24: I felt mad at myself earlier for missing the move. So until I am centered again, I can’t trade. I focused more on a short term overnight pattern rather than the main trend. As I was allowing myself to be upset about it, I missed an opportunity to re short at 88.65. The thing that was associated with less profit was not a premature exit — it was beating myself up.

The first thoughts unworkable thoughts were, “I missed the trade, and I’m not good at getting back in on moves like this (ironically as price was going below 88.65!).” My workable thoughts are now, “The truth is I just got the new intraday software going and am still getting used to it. I have not traded intraday in a long time with the proper software: Mistakes could be expected at first as skill improves. I accurately identified a trade and made a profit on it. Time to wait for the next opportunity.”

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