Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

January 24, 2011

Watch UPS – Candlesticks have long lower shadows +2%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 1:00 pm

Waiting to see what Monday brings. But otherwise:
Buy April 72.5 calls or stock buy stop around 73.
Exit on a close below 72.
Possibly short Feb 70 puts for around $0.60 But considering a perceived toppyness of the market, I’m reluctant to open this position. I would not even consider it unless the options were liquid. Maybe trade a half position?

– Daily CCI is suggesting a pullback.
+ Most of the last 10 candles have a rather long lower shadow. I take that to mean when price gets below about 71.75 demand picks up.
+ Recently had 2 accumulation days.
+ Price used the 34 EMA and rising trend line as support.
+ Insiders, nor institution are selling.
+ Monthly CCI still heading up.

Jan 24: Bought March 72.5 calls for $1.80. Not buying April calls was a small mistake. I prefer calls with at about 3 months before expiration. Tight stop.
Sold for $1.85 + 2%. Price was weak and pulled back quite a bit mid day. Want to be taking profits too soon. Checking now, price closed well, but volume is weak.

Jan 28: This is what can happen when stocks don’t “act right”. Those calls are now worth $1.08 -40%. It’s interesting how the last 3 days also had long lower candle shadows.

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