Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

February 2, 2011

Long Cocoa. Extended, but can get more so for a week. +1%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, Futures Trades — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:11 am

Long March cocoa at 3348.
Stop loss at 3280.

+ Looks like the last bar was part of a correction: rather long lower wick.
+Monthly and weekly CCI’s rising with weekly over monthly.
+/- Daily CCI rather high, but not unexpected if price is strong: dip should be small nad not give daily CCI time to get near -100.
EMA both rising with the 34 above the 170.
+ Very strong volume the past few weeks.
– Daily RSI > 70. For the past few years, this has almost always lead to a pullback. But when price was very strong it took a week or so to stat the pullback. So the stop can be kept very close.
– Commercials are net short, but not at extremes.

A bit risky for me, but should be okay with a tight stop. Drilled down to 60 minute chart for a buy stop closer to the sell stop.

Feb 3: Sold at 3351 +1%. Expected price to be ripping upward. It’s not, so time to be flat.

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