Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

March 15, 2011

Encouragement to simply be prepared: Possible earthquake on the West Coast from credible geologist.

Filed under: Editorials — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:56 pm

Apologies, I don’t have time to write this up properly, but here it is raw. The purpose of this post is to suggest that if there is a big earthquake on the West Coast in the next week, consider assuming it is a much bigger deal than first reported until proven differently.

Former USGS geologist warning of a big West Coast earthquake within March 19-26. He mentions several marine die offs as well. He predicted the 1989 world series earthquake 4 days before it happened plus a few others.

Reasons to take this minimum action:
+ Being prepared costs little ahead of time, but can be challenging and expensive after events.
+ Marine die offs seem to be strongly correlated with major earthquakes.
+ He has a track record.
+ I am not yet very concerned about radiation from Japan having grave consequences on the West Coast. But if another 8/9 earthquake is near one of the West Coasts nuclear power plant’s or other large quantities of stored toxins, that is a concern. Diablo Canyon is not designed for that magnitude at all.
+ This is consistent with the Expando Planet Model of the planets: earthquakes with growing amplitude and frequency.

Expando Planet Model: About every 11,000 years (?) the sun burps (I disagree with the postulated reason) and some of that energy recharges a postulated plasma core in the earth. A byproduct is some energy turns to matter which causes the earth to grow. (I have not yet fully explored this theory, but it is interesting and on face value explains a lot.)

Some explanation: Part 1, Part 2. Short video.

Preparing for open ended events…
Basically prepare in stages until you are comfortable again. Most people can’t leave in a hurry, and if “rescued” can’t bring a bunch of stuff. So the first step is to have a small waterproof container to hold laminated phone numbers, passwords, a few gold coins, cash, credit cards, copies of ID, matches, and a multi tool. Next, as you can see from the headlines, the affected people in Japan, just like every other situation, are having trouble with water, warmth and shelter. (Now they are talking about food.) So the next step is everyone should have at least a backpack with enough stuff to go camping for a week, including 2 water filters. Next is car camping for a month. Etc.

From the only person I know of that can predict weather Piers Corbyn, PhD. The dangerous times the world is now in – Videos & Comment from Piers Corbyn on Looming Nuke, weather extreme and further earthquake disasters.

Assuming the above is somewhat accurate: if there is a big quake that effects nuclear power plants, or other sites with large amounts of potential toxins, I would not wait to hear what the authorities have to say. I would panic gracefully and get all the duffle bags of emergency stuff in the car and get upwind and far away with a quickness. There seems to be a window of opportunity (12-24 hours?) to leave while information is being digested. Once an issue is clear to everyone, store shelves can be bare and freeways jam up very quickly.

Caution about other’s opinions…
About maps and models of possible plumes of nasties, “garbage in, garbage out”. If it’s coming from a truly competent person, great. Otherwise, use your discretion.
+ A valuable rule of thumb that can show if a person is at least not grossly incompetent is ask, “So, what’s the percent error??” The person should know right off the bat, at least in general.
+ Always check the units. “The units are your friends.” Make sure you understand what the units mean relative to something you understand.
+ If someone says “the model (whatever) indicates a 10.453% chance of xyz” they are likely clueless. It’s just way too much “precision”. When dealing with emergencies / people / many variables / etc., most numbers will have just one significant figure: 10% chance, 40% chance, etc.

Or lack of volunteering basic, yet critical info…
– I have not seen any credible projections of fallout types, times, concentrations, locations and half lives for the West Coast. Why? Are the “authorities” incompetent, negligent, or hoarding critical info? A translated Austrian website is the only credible source I have seen so far. Why do I have to go to Austria to find out what I want to know in California!?!?

+ What to do if caught without KI or KIO3 tablets in a nuclear emergency…
+ A milestone: the system seemingly accelerating faster than one can keep up
+ Where’s the big bust? Is the new system growing faster than the old one is crashing?

March 16: Example of the cost and stress of not being minimally prepared: I was able to purchase some bulk KI (11,000 doses) for our school with no issues Sunday at 7 pm PST for less than $200 (0.018 $/dose). There was still plenty during Monday. 28 does were sold on eBay for $610. That’s $21.78/dose. Even with a mini panic building, people still had hours to take action before paying 1,210 times more than they needed too. Right now KI is about $10/dose on eBay.

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