Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

August 19, 2011

5 and 20 dollar up days in silver coming up???

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:32 am

Clif High’s Web bots have long suggested silver could have $5 and $20 up days on it’s way to around $600/oz. Well, last May that turned out to be $5 down days — the bots are a nascent science and timing can be, and has been a real challenge. However, the general archetype level usually manifests at some point, and things usually turn out less dire than indicated.

Silver has been sleeping / suppressed for around 30 years — a tighter spring than any other contemporary commodity ever as far as I know. So it would not be a surprise to see an explosive move like a couple of 2 dollar days to about $45, then, capitulation to test $50. Then, fiddle around for a few days, and have a nice 5 dollar up day. Then a few more $5 up days. And finally, marking a point of recognition, a $20 up day or two, followed by the alleged fractional reserves of COMEX, LBMA, GLD, and SLV closing their door.

I still wonder if the fed/gov can kick the can into 2012? Although they seem very good at what they do, fighting math is really expensive.

Clif’s latest interview — talks finance first, then audience questions, and ends with fascinating info regarding boats. One of his best interviews ever.

4 Comments »

  1. Explosive $2 up days… You mean like today? πŸ™‚

    Not sure what to make of these web bots. I’m not at all familiar with the algorithms behind them but I have long been interested in the idea that one could mine the internet for all kinds of sentiment data and use it prognosticate. I’m sure there’s already lots of that going on, but I’ve actually been interested in doing some work on it myself. Just haven’t really had the time to do it. I just read an article recently about a new hedge fund that mines sentiment data on twitter and uses it to place trades.

    There are several things on my mind right now, such as the upcoming gold margin hikes (sure to happen sometime next week), and what effect that might have on silver. Gold will have a sharp correction, but the depth of the correction will probably depend on what comes out of the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting next weekend as well as the GDP number due out that Friday. If these events spark a strong overdue/oversold rally in the stock market then that will drive the gold correction deeper. Of course, if the Fed announces or strongly hints at more easing then the correction should be bought, especially if it’s a “scary” one. Even if they don’t, it’s still a correction to be bought.

    What do you think about the partial backwardation developing in the gold futures strip? I don’t see any backwardation on CME’s website today but I saw it on my quotes. It’s not as bad as silver, but maybe a sign of things to come?

    Comment by silverflaunt — August 19, 2011 @ 3:56 pm

  2. Yes the web bots are fascinating! I participate on http://webbotforum.com/ — it’s a fantastic group of people and they are doing excellent interviews. Clif just responded to an email that said the Venezuela plan to bring home gold is fulfilling 22% of the linguistics for the [rich riot]. If I have it right, that is a main temporal market for a near term (days, weeks) explosion in silver prices.

    I don’t know what the markets will do near term.. I like Mr. Ferguson’s post today http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2138/your-consideration The whole point is that *IF* the debt issue is past the knee of the exponential curve and so the acceleration is accelerating. The fed/gov/banksters have to keep printing at an ever faster pace to keep avoiding the math. Someday they will be run over. It seems like there is an decent chance that can happen in the next week or so. Even if they do manage to kick the can a bit further, the corrections in the metals should be short lived.

    I look at the backwardation, COT data, etc. but don’t put too much stock on it since I can’t quantify what the fed/gov/banksters are doing to it. I don’t even know if it is even honestly reported. Anything can be justified in the name of “national security” aka status quo. I put much more value on what James Turk and Eric Sprott have to say since they have companies in the thick of things.

    I think that once the mass consciousness figures out the best places for stored wealth are precious metals are the safest place to be it’s game over for all shenanigans and an ocean of fait will try to fill pond. The web bots have had the meme [panic to own (precious metals)] at a [global level] for a long time. And if the above ground ratio of silver to gold really is around 5:1 or 1:1 (or even 1:5) things are going to get a bit “disorderly” πŸ™‚ Right now silver could cost about $360 to $2,000 / oz. That’s why I always have a few very far out of the money calls in silver and SLW.

    Comment by Jeff — August 21, 2011 @ 12:42 pm

  3. Nice. I listened to the most recent interview where Turd was asking Clif questions and I had trouble making heads or tails of it. Seems like there’s a lot of subjectivity and interpretation. I’ll check out that forum when I get a chance, maybe it will shed some light.

    Speaking of kicking the can, I read something on Zerohedge awhile back where they said on or around Sept 30th the House would need to vote a continuing resolution. So even if there is a brief respite in September from the debt ceiling issue, it’s going to come right back into the forefront in a month. Should be good times again.

    I really don’t expect QE3 from the Fed at Jackson Hole, but if they don’t do something, the current trends are going to remain in place regardless of how many margin hikes the CME enacts. The stock market feels like it just wants to implode. I would expect a knee-jerk downside reaction in gold providing a great buying opportunity.

    Comment by silverflaunt — August 22, 2011 @ 3:52 pm

  4. There is a lot of subjectivity. Although things are usually clear at the top archetype level, we always want to know more details — where, when, magnitude, etc. Then Clif wades through a mass of words and relationships between words, memes, etc. It is usually murky at the detail levels.

    Well, it looks like a correction has starts. Lets see where it goes! πŸ™‚

    Comment by Jeff — August 23, 2011 @ 11:43 am


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