Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

June 25, 2012

GNC – Buy on a stop (update 3, July 22) -2%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, Long Stock — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:10 pm

+ 13% of float is short.
+ Past 2 months look like a large bull flag.
+ NR7 today.
+ Pretty good volume 1 day back.
– Medium term RSI flat, but not rising.

Update June 27: Move stop to break even.
Update June 27: Will likely exit unless price moves up tomorrow. Stocks in general were up and GNC “was” up, but then retreated. Not exactly positive. We will see what tomorrow looks like.

Update July 22: I got out the next day on weak prices @ -2%. I should have left the original stop alone. On the other hand, keeping tight stops helps avoid a CMG situation (currently would be a 30% loss if “buy and hold”), and it’s a momo stock. If it’s not going up on at least ok volume, why be in it? And as Raymond Merriman points out:

Mercury retrograde. It just reinforces our rule under Mercury retrograde: take profits too soon (i.e. take profits quickly, like every 1-4 days, and don’t wait for your price target to get hit and don’t expect a break of resistance to be a buy signal or a break of support to be a sell signal. It is just as likely to be a fake out.

Update July 22 at night: The more I look at this the more it seems like price wants to go lower.
– Price deeply backtested the breakout point twice now.
– Only 2 up volume days.

If there was not a big gap down, one low risk trade could be shorting at Fridays low with a stop at Friday’s high. If not much happens, cover quickly in a day or 2. 20% of float is short.

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