Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

July 22, 2012

Soy verses corn Commitment of Traders (update 1, July 25)

Filed under: Systems — Tags: , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:56 am

Zero hedge’s Forget Corn, Is Soy Poised For Lift-Off? has some fun charts. Now gander at the COT:

True the stronger sisters are soys, but it’s interesting that while soy commercials are record net short, corn commercials are not even close. Curious dichotomy. If commercials are expecting higher prices, why has it taken corn so long to start rising relative to soys? I don’t know. I do know that corn is at all time highs and commercials are no where near very net short.

For comparison:

+ Waiting patiently to short soybean meal… Going to wait some more 🙂

Update July 25: After this apparent 2 day correction, corn is significantly closer to it’s highs compared to the other grains. This is in line with the COT.

December corn is even closer to the highs.

Also, if the grains really are in raging bull market, there should rarely be more than 2 down days in a row. And likely there should now be at least 3 up days in a row. EDIT to add: If price is still in a consolidation, I would expect today to still close positive and then have possibly 2 more down days before new highs. Basically create an ABC pattern with today being the B.

Weather Action self suggests an 80% accuracy. I have only partially checked this claim out a few months ago in real time: it seemed true. (Tweets)

It’s my understanding Mr. Corbyn basically looks at what is going on with the Sun (spots, flares, etc.) and correlates that with past jet stream info and thus weather. I think he runs his whole “weather model” on his laptop. Which is hilarious if those predictions really are about 80% accurate. (I think current weather models, that have trouble predicting anything 5 mins out, run on some of the most expensive computers around.)

July 16 video suggested that the basic situation in the USA will be the same for all July and, if I understand it, into mid August.

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