Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 14, 2012

Snippets and quotes for September

Filed under: Snippets — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:47 am

Talent hits a target no one else can hit; Genius hits a target no one else can see. — Arthur Schopenhauer

… antifragility … is what benefits from the following phenomena (within some parameters): volatility, stress, uncertainty, error, chaos, variation, time–because time is volatility and things like that…

…via negativa is–I’ve got a little more aggressive with via negativa by showing that removing does not have … long term side effects… Whereas in a complex system, every time you add something you have side effects. And you can’t predict what they are, by nature of complex systems…

And nature doesn’t like debt. Nature likes redundancies. This mechanism of overreaction is redundancy. — Nassim Taleb (January 2012).

You can deny reality; but, you cannot deny the consequences of denying reality. — Ayn Rand

Sugar is the canary in the commodity sector coal mine. It’s a purer measure of price inflation or deflation. Sugar crops aren’t as vulnerable to weather disruptions such as droughts or floods. So the supply versus demand equation is more stable than that of most other food commodities. — Jeff Clark

– Luck is more important than skill.
– Risk is the most when you feel the safest.
– Look for evidence that proves your ideas wrong.
– There are no experts of things that move.
– Too much information becomes toxic.
– The wise plead ignorance to world events.
– We cannot compare current reality with an alternative.
– Our highest currency is respect.
– “Randomness” is unknowledge.
– Be prepared for multiple contingencies.
– “I don’t know,” is a sign of intelligence.
– We are swayed by the sensational.
– Seize every opportunity, for they are rare.
– Go to parties — chitchat leads to breakthroughs. — Notes from Dan Wallace about Nassim Taleb’s “The Black Swan”

Overconfidence can lead to the illusion of superiority, the illusion of optimism, and the illusion of control. Increase accuracy by identifying reference points, assessing the distribution of outcomes, selecting a probable outcome, asssing the reliability of the selected outcome, and fine tuning.

…the accuracy of forecasts in systems with phase transitions is dismal, even by so-called experts.
Michael J. Mauboussin

Be a witness, not a judge. Listen to your heart, not opinions. Focus on joy. — internet

Out beyond ideas of right-doing and wrong-doing, there is a field. I’ll meet you there. — Rumi

Humans have an inherent tendency to infer other people’s intentions from their actions. — Blakemore

Blowups and explosive errors happen the most in fields where there is a penalty for simplicity. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Paraphrased slightly by Farnam Street, Clay Christensen said: “Questions are places in your mind where answers fit. If you haven’t asked the question, the answer has nowhere to go. It hits your mind and bounces right off. You have to ask the question – you have to want to know – in order to open up the space for the answer to fit.”

We are not retreating – we are advancing in another direction. — General Douglas MacArthur

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