Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 14, 2012

ACOM and DVA: long if buy stops triggered. +1%, -3% (update 4, Sept 14)

Filed under: +0 to +5%, -0 to -4%, Long Stock — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:30 pm

August 30, 2012
This indicator suggests tomorrow is a low risk time to got long stocks for a short term bounce.

But since the Summation Index is toppy, use tight stops and get out too soon.

ACOM
+ An NR8 even though the broad market had a down day.
+ Short term RSI crossed over medium term RSI.
– Medium term RSI still heading down.
+ – Depending on the source 17 (finviz)30 (yahoo)% of float is short.
EDIT: NASDAQ indicates a short ratio of about 16 days to cover as of August 15.

So buy on a stop around 31 with a stop loss around 30.45.

DVA
+ Price could have dropped a lot today, but didn’t.
– A fair amount of red volume bars.

Buy stop around 97.37. Stop loss around 95.45.

Update 1, September 1: Long ACOM at about 31.02 and DVA at 97.40.
– Neither stock went up much at all.
– Low volume on both stocks even though stocks in general had decent volume.

Update 2, September 5: Moving DVA stop to around 98.15.

Update 3, September 11: Stopped out yesterday at about 98.10. +1%.

Price is kind of weak:
– The spike up 4 days ago saw price close in the lower half. (Should have sold half right then.)
– Filled gap yet kept going down.
– Tested short term EMA (yellow) and is, so far, under the EMA.
– Finally bounced, so far, off the minor down trend line.
– Short term RSI (yellow) has some more room to decline.

Update 4, September 14: Stopped out of ACOM for a -3% loss.

June 25, 2012

GNC – Buy on a stop (update 3, July 22) -2%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, Long Stock — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:10 pm

+ 13% of float is short.
+ Past 2 months look like a large bull flag.
+ NR7 today.
+ Pretty good volume 1 day back.
– Medium term RSI flat, but not rising.

Update June 27: Move stop to break even.
Update June 27: Will likely exit unless price moves up tomorrow. Stocks in general were up and GNC “was” up, but then retreated. Not exactly positive. We will see what tomorrow looks like.

Update July 22: I got out the next day on weak prices @ -2%. I should have left the original stop alone. On the other hand, keeping tight stops helps avoid a CMG situation (currently would be a 30% loss if “buy and hold”), and it’s a momo stock. If it’s not going up on at least ok volume, why be in it? And as Raymond Merriman points out:

Mercury retrograde. It just reinforces our rule under Mercury retrograde: take profits too soon (i.e. take profits quickly, like every 1-4 days, and don’t wait for your price target to get hit and don’t expect a break of resistance to be a buy signal or a break of support to be a sell signal. It is just as likely to be a fake out.

Update July 22 at night: The more I look at this the more it seems like price wants to go lower.
– Price deeply backtested the breakout point twice now.
– Only 2 up volume days.

If there was not a big gap down, one low risk trade could be shorting at Fridays low with a stop at Friday’s high. If not much happens, cover quickly in a day or 2. 20% of float is short.

CMG – Buy on a stop -2%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, Long Stock — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:49 pm

+ Doji bar today.
+ Low volume when price was down and stocks general volume wasn’t down commensurately.
+ All 3 RSI’s rising.
+ Low float of 31 million.
– PE of 57.

Better to have tight stops on momo’s. Keeping a 2% loss from being a 7% loss is similar to giving yourself 2 more tries to enter a profitable trade.

Update July 22: If this was a buy and hold trade, it would be down 30% right now.

August 15, 2011

Bought December Cocoa 2900 call for $1,670 (update 2, August 16) -1%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, Futures Trades, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:00 am

Seems to be at weekly support.

Opps wanted to add the seasonals.

August 18: Closed position since there was a huge outside reversal. -1%

If today’s bar was simply like coffee’s, I would have kept it.

June 1, 2011

Long APKT June 70 puts for 1.70 and LULU June 87.5 puts for 3.98 (update 1, June 4) -3%, +3%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, -0 to -4%, Long Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:43 pm

Game plan: If stocks gap down and start to rise above yesterday’s lows, or open up and keep going up, sell. Otherwise hold.

I usually don’t buy puts near the end of a big down day, but there seemed to be a good chance of at least temporary follow through.

– Today’s bar broke out and then failed and undercut yesterday’s almost hammer low.
– RSI > 70 on monthly timeframe. Also > 70 on the weekly a few months ago (often there is a lag). Those alone suggest a trip to the weekly magenta EMA at some point.

+ On both these charts, if prices really are headed down, the weekly CCI magenta line will get below -100 and price will could drop 15-20 points in a week. That reward is why I took the risk.
– But since the options expire soon, price has to move down quickly or it’s time to be out.
– Both stocks did not have huge volume today. So possibly they declined not so much due to selling, but a lack of buying?? I’m hoping the selling kicks in soon πŸ™‚

June 4: Closed both positions on Thursday when LULU rose quickly intraday. And APKT was not even going down. Basically I shorted at the incorrect time as mentioned in this update.

May 26, 2011

Probably buy PAL calls — lowest RSI since 2001 (update 2, June 4) +0%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, Long Calls — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:14 pm

Looking at JULY 4 calls for around 0.20. (Might even sell June 4 puts?)

+ Short ratio is about 2 to 3 days.
+ A bunch of NR7 bars and little doji’s.
– Monthly CCI is still headed down but it might lag. Just looking for a good bounce here.

May 27: bought for 0.25. Trade looks good so far.

June 4: Sold the calls for 0.25 on Thursday +0%. I was more expecting a slower rise up to the yellow 34 EMA. When price gaped open and sold off Wednesday to close the recent gap and kept going, I gave it a half hour on Thursday to head back up and it didn’t.

May 16, 2011

Looking to short July cocoa (update 2, May 18) -1%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:20 pm

Short around 2995 ish.
Stop loss 3041 ish.

– Weak volume today
– Weak bounce off trend line.
– Monthly and weekly CCI’s trending down.
+ Daily CCI oversold.
± Setting on a 8 month long trend line.
± Commitment Of Traders is neutral.
– Seasonals suggest a sharp move down, but it seems to be a few days early for that.

May 17:

May 18: Stopped out. MIght have been a mistake to lower the stop loss a bit soon. Will be interesting to see what happens the next few days.

April 28, 2011

Long SLW, (update 3: May 15) +0% -100%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, -75 to -99%, -Below -100%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:23 am

June 45 calls at average price of 2.15.
June 70 calls average price of 0.082.

Stop loss is price closing below this morning’s low.

The MRCI monthly silver chart is finally starting to look a bit extended.

+ Silver Warehouse Shenanigans or the Real Deal? Scroll down for the newer info and some historical perspective.
+ James Turk – The Waterfall Decline in the US Dollar Has Begun If true, far out of the money options might pay off well.
+ Mr Ferguson is suggesting a metal rise into mid next week followed by a dip into May 12 to 20 timeframe.

3 90% silver dies are currently worth $10.65.

Just speculation: At this point Mr. Bernanke would have to resign or be fired to stop the metal train.

EDIT: Sold the June 45s for 2.16. Don’t want to get caught in a down draft: SLW is still weak and I expect it to be weak until silver is above 50. Interestingly, the 70 calls are bid 9, ask 10. These are more long term speculations that I won’t trade hopefully for a while.

Now it’s best to wait until the medium term CCI looks to be bottoming. Price could easily go to the magenta 170 EMA near 41.

April 29: The trendline has been broken to the upside. Time to wait for a backtest. Those June 45 calls are now trading for 1.80, down -16%.

May 15: I was greedy regarding silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. Just going to assume the out of the money in-a-galexy-far-away option will be worthless.

March 3, 2011

SLW – Part 2 of the silver and SLW campaign -36%, +41%, -3%

Filed under: +26 to +50%, -0 to -4%, -25 to -49%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:29 pm

Part 1: SLW – long short term and long term calls -4%, +60%, +65%, -15%, +53%

Open positions:
June 60 calls for 0.31.
June 45 calls for 4.35.
July silver 60 calls for 0.042.

Earnings to be reported after the close. If you sell a product for $30 that cost you $4 and you only have 23 employees, earnings might be okay — except for things that come up like HL’s skeletons.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Upside targets of around 45.12 and 46.67 provided by Rick Ackerman’s method. If price open’s gap up it might be time to sell the 45 calls? If price opens lower with a gap – that will be an interesting decision.

+ SLW has a good backtest on the December high.
+ At all time highs with good fundamentals.
+ Volume keeps rising.

References
+ The obvious and GARGANTUAN silver opportunity
+ Surveying the playing field: fortunes can be made or lost in the next month or so, and sent to PCH

March 5: Brian Hunt’s Market Notes showcases SLW.

Our friend Jeff Clark of Casey Research has commented that Silver Wheaton is such a terrific silver play, we can use it to judge the severity of a precious metals mania. If gold and silver enter a mania phase, Silver Wheaton will be the stock magazine publishers throw on their covers… it will be the “must own” stock discussed at cocktail parties… and folks will talk about Silver Wheaton’s royalty stream like they talked about Cisco’s networking sales back in 1999.

That is what I am betting on.

March 8: Steve Sjuggerud on SLW: Up 40% in Seven Weeks, Still Room to Double

SLW has a fair number of gaps, and I did not sell this one. Usually when a move is rather extended to the upside and there is a gap on the open, it’s a good time to sell. But not always, especially if price is not extended. I did not sell at point 10 because:
+ I want to keep the position despite daily price movements, unless they are very bearish. (Yesterdays bar did not even take out the low of the bar before it. Compare that to point 1 and 2. Point 4 is a little different because it might have received support from the 10 ema.)
+ Price is not extended compared to the the old high at point 2. (definitely extended compared to the recent bottom mid February.)
+ The 2011 backwardation has been following 2008 closely. That implies price can go up for at least 5 more days with minor corrections.

The other reason I want to hold onto the position is silver really could explode up at any time. Among other things, the stream of rumors about JPM offering cash premiums to not take delivery from the COMEX is continuous. Mr Chapman, about 1.5 minutes in, is saying premiums were at 80%. IF true that puts the real price of silver at around 65 frn’s/oz. Then add backwardation, the lack of Silver Maples, funky warehouse stats, etc, etc… One could sell the gap and be chasing price big time to get back in. Maybe that is a good plan? If every major gap was sold and bought back 1-2 days later, that would probably cover the loss of having to chase price. But I’m not at the computer all the time. So I don’t want the stress.

Note that usually when price gaps up, it just heads down. None of this bouncing back stuff after 10 minutes. If silver really is bullish, SLW could open up, and just start accelerating up 15% in a short amount of time.

March 10: Sold June 45 calls -36%. Will be updating the gap info above and point out the psychological blind spot. In summary, the account just gave away 5 points. The rational for not selling the gap up was having to buy back at a higher price. If if I that happened, would it take 5 points to do it? Probably not. I don’t have good enough rules for dealing with gaps. Will update this weekend.

March 11: Was doing other things so missed the gap down open. Will wait for a pullback on the 60 min chart. I was thinking last due to the big gap, it might take a few days to get a good bottom in. Nope!

SLW: Dividends could rise to as much as 50% of cash flow

March 23: Long June 46 (2.22) and 65 (0.23) calls 4 days ago. The 65 calls are a bet on a big price run up and will have to be closed if price starts to stall out. I think they were expensive and expire rather soon considering how out of the money they are. But, if silver really starts to run, it’s much better to have exposure to a large number of shares rather than just exposure. The 46 calls were rather out of the money considering what I normally like to do (at the money, or one strike out of the money), but they are already rather profitable.

I sold 3/4 of the June 60 calls (+25%) in order to avoid riding a drop down to 33-36. I doubt that would have happened (famous last words), but I would rather reenter than sit through a major drawdown “hoping”. I obviously was not trading that correction well πŸ™‚ And SLW is still very overbought on a monthly time frame. Really need to learn to sell large gaps up when price is extended.

I still entertain the notion that SLW will be the biggest momo stock ever.

April 14: Sold all the June 60 calls +58% on Tuesday since price looked to go lower. So the average is +41%. I can’t easily find what I sold the June 46 calls for, but it was a profit. But I will drop it since I got into June 47’s that I did not list here (so I don’t keep official track) that I sold in a debacle at a loss. Sold the June 65’s at -3%. That was silly. Too expensive, too far away, and not enough time until expiration.

I did not really preform profitably with the trades in this post. This is one reason I got flat on almost everything on Tuesday.

February 11, 2011

SLW – long short term and long term calls -4%, +60%, +65%, -15% +53% (part 1)

Filed under: +51 to +75%, -0 to -4%, -05 to -24%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:49 am

Long March 36 calls at 1.53, and June 60 calls at 0.25.

I had a dream this morning that I was flying from Hawaii. I arrived in time but there were a lot of number on my pre boarding ticket, and it seemed none of them were being called. Not a big deal, I did make it to the counter and got a ticket and started scampering to the plane. I was not rushing — what’s the worst that can happen? Stay another day in Hawaii? But I was scampering.

Translation: While you are overtrading, the plane is taking off. True.

Silver
+ Instead of price dropping, it seems to have been waiting for the ema’s to catch up.
+ EMA’s all pointing up.
+ Price rose past the 3 peaks to the left easily. If I have it correctly, Rick Ackerman says that is bullish.
– The monthly CCI is pointed down. Not ideal — was the correction enough?
+ Fundamentally, silver is crazy bullish.

SLW
+ Price nestled into the ema’s.
– Overall, I would prefer SLW leading silver. But what do I know.
+ Fundamentally, SLW is even more crazy bullish than silver (If silver does not go down much over the next few months).

Feb 14: Not to be overtrading or anything, but buying Mar calls was a mistake. In the bustle to open the positions, I was not centered and thought March was further away (Isn’t it still January?!?!?). Anyway, sold the March calls -4% and bought June 36 calls at 3.66. I feel much better now. The position is bigger than the normal size and it is much better to make it right, than stress about the timing. “The first loss is the best loss”.

Feb 19: Sold the June 36 calls for 5.90 ish +60% because they were $3 in the money. Bought June 39 calls at about 4.41. I did this to increase the number of options. If price really is explosive, more options are better than fewer. But the options are quite expensive right now so I picked an at-the-money strike. The June 60 calls purchased at about 0.28 are trading for 0.56. (I foolishly exited these at break even of 0.22 and bought back in.) I also bought a few highly speculative silver July 60 calls at 0.042.

A number of things were done correctly: Much more than one position is being traded. So on the rollover 10% of the ~:windfall” profit was removed from the account. The rollover also happened after 11:00 PCT when prices tend to rest.

Rick Ackerman is suggesting a target of 45.01. Chart

Update of Why I prefer SLW to CDE, HL, PAAS, SSRI and silver:

Xiphos Trading “FWIW talked to my bro-in-law at GS today, said they covered half their short vega (VOL) last week. Meltup has trading desk alarmed.”

References
+ Silver backwardation growing even as price rises: speculative targets based on 2008 LBMA backwardation

Feb 21: SLW might open quite high tomorrow. Time to sell and buy back betting the gap will close? I don’t know. I was going to write out a few thoughts I had on this, but it’s time for bed. I will likely do nothing unless SLW really starts dropping. This is not the time to over trade or get cute. Many eyes might now be focusing on silver and the silver stocks. There are only a handful and SLW might open around 43 drop for 15 minutes to close the gap at the December high of 32.34 then be at 45 2 minutes later. All with high volatility which might mean large enough spreads such that it would be challenging to even profit on a 2% drop. Plus the stress of it all.

Just like Feb 19th, if it’s time to roll contracts up a few strikes, I will do it later in the trading day.

Feb 23: Yesterday I did sell half the in the money calls and bought June 43 calls for 3.86. Thoughts were thus:
+ Because silver price “should” keep going up for at least 20% over the next 2 weeks, I want to keep the position.
+ But it would be nice to sell the big gap up unless it takes off to the upside.
+ So I sold half the position as prices was declining and bought the 43 calls.
+ Although I could have waited and bought much lower toward the end of the day, the object was only to roll forward half the contracts and hopefully make back the spread, which happened πŸ™‚
+ If there was a down draft I would wait until that was over. But I would buy at the end of the day almost for sure so that I kept the position.

SLW has had much, much more volume compared to it’s past and compared to any other major silver stock. Since price is going up, that seems quite bullish. SLW’s price relative strength the past 5 days:

Feb 24: Rolled the other half of June 39 calls to June 43 call during the morning weakness. +70%. (Average of whole position = +65%)
– Gold has been up 7 days in a row.
– Silver and SLW are way above the 10 EMA. On the break down below 39.65 all June 34 calls were sold -15%.
– If price closes below yesterdays low, that could mean dropping probably tomorrow too.
– There is also the unfilled gap around 37.

– Silver broke out to 30 year new highs and is could back test.

The June 60 calls have only been added to in dribs and drabs.

The intention is to buy when SLW calls again when when price gets to 36-37, or rises above today’s high.

Feb 25: I am changing my mind. Possibly buy calls the morning weakness? Silver bounced hard from it’s backtest of the 10 ema. Hmm… Ideally, it would be nice to see SLW leading silver stocks, and silver leading gold. And if SLW is very strong, the gaps don’t need to be filled.

Feb 26: Long June 43 calls at 3.25. So far I am pleased with this trade. Price could have opened down and kept going for $2. Part of the reason the calls were entered was the strength of the magenta CCI. It suggested that price would have follow through even if timing is off. And the yellow CCI was turing up again. And the longer term blue CCI looked to be bottoming.

Which is nice because price did turn right down πŸ™‚

It would have be best if price closed above yesterday’s high, but this might be good enough.

Time to post the 5 day comparison chart again: SLW is almost double everything else.

March 2: I will put in the numbers tomorrow. Raymond Merriman’s silver index is suggesting a +2% reversal. I am not sure, but I think that about 10% of the time it turns out to be an acceleration. If a reversal, might have to take action. SLW’s earnings are tomorrow which makes things interesting.

March 3: Sold June 43 calls for 4.99 +53%. Bought June 45 calls for 4.35. This is the end of part 1. the June 45, June 60, and July silver 60 calls, will be followed on: SLW – Part 2 of the silver campaign

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