Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 23, 2013

NGLS – Buying due to small breakout. +3% (update 1, Jan 6)

Filed under: +0 to +5%, IBD Bounty — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:12 am

Bought March 2014 50 call for $300.
Stop loss is a close below 47ish.
Partial profits target is new highs.

NGLS daily sep 23 2013

The “IBD Bounty”, a very simple breakout system. Watching AWAY.

Updated January 6, 2014. +3%
Decided to sell for a small profit a few trading days ago. (Sorry, just catching up now — normally I post trades in near real time.) There were 3 past times the position could have been (partially) sold for a bigger profit. But that did not happen since I was “waiting” for a bigger move.

NGLS daily Jan 5 2014

July 22, 2013

ACT – Buying backtest and channel (update 2, Aug 27) +3%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, Backtest — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:43 am

Buy stop about 127.50.

Stop loss about 116.

+ IBD Top 50 stock.
+ Nice tight sideways channel too.
– Edit: Opps! Chart price label should be “backtest”, not “retest”.

ACT daily july 21 2013

Update 1 August 21
Stop loss moved up to about 131. Medium term CCI is pointing down and crossed below long term CCI.

ACT daily aug 21 2013

Update 2 August 27
Will likely exit tomorrow morning.

Update 3 August 28
Stopped out 131.75 +3%
– Broke out of the rising trend line and short term EMA.
– All CCI’s seem to be rolling over.

Actually, shorting below today’s low with near today’s high a stop loss, is an okay reward : risk ratio. Initial target would be around 123.

ACT daily aug 28 2013

September 30, 2012

KCZ12 – Bullish COT +1% (update 2, Oct 4)

Filed under: +0 to +5%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 1:54 pm

Buy stop 175.10
Stop loss 167.30.

+ Just back tested a 12 month old down trend line.
+ Medium term RSI above long term RSI and seems to be rising. Since this is basically a weekly pattern, a move up should last for a few weeks.
+ Nice long tail yesterday on trendline and EMA support.
+ COT is bullish.

Update 1, October 3: Moving stop up to a bit lower than break even. If price drops below 177.80 I will take partial profits. The RSI’s seem very bullish to me, so price “should” not drop much. If it does, I’m missing something and it’s definitely time to reduce exposure.

Update 2, October 4: Both stop losses hit, +1%. Will see if there is another low risk opportunity to go long in the next few days.

September 14, 2012

ACOM and DVA: long if buy stops triggered. +1%, -3% (update 4, Sept 14)

Filed under: +0 to +5%, -0 to -4%, Long Stock — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:30 pm

August 30, 2012
This indicator suggests tomorrow is a low risk time to got long stocks for a short term bounce.

But since the Summation Index is toppy, use tight stops and get out too soon.

+ An NR8 even though the broad market had a down day.
+ Short term RSI crossed over medium term RSI.
– Medium term RSI still heading down.
+ – Depending on the source 17 (finviz)30 (yahoo)% of float is short.
EDIT: NASDAQ indicates a short ratio of about 16 days to cover as of August 15.

So buy on a stop around 31 with a stop loss around 30.45.

+ Price could have dropped a lot today, but didn’t.
– A fair amount of red volume bars.

Buy stop around 97.37. Stop loss around 95.45.

Update 1, September 1: Long ACOM at about 31.02 and DVA at 97.40.
– Neither stock went up much at all.
– Low volume on both stocks even though stocks in general had decent volume.

Update 2, September 5: Moving DVA stop to around 98.15.

Update 3, September 11: Stopped out yesterday at about 98.10. +1%.

Price is kind of weak:
– The spike up 4 days ago saw price close in the lower half. (Should have sold half right then.)
– Filled gap yet kept going down.
– Tested short term EMA (yellow) and is, so far, under the EMA.
– Finally bounced, so far, off the minor down trend line.
– Short term RSI (yellow) has some more room to decline.

Update 4, September 14: Stopped out of ACOM for a -3% loss.

September 11, 2011

Considering shorting gold or silver — only for a short heretical time :-) (update 2, Sep 12) +4%, +9%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, +06 to +25%, Long Puts — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:16 pm

(Did you know the origin of “heretic” is ‘able to choose’?)

A longer term look at gold.

A possible downside target could be 1,750 ish.

Great post by Peter Brandt Silver is a cross dresser!

References: Silver, seasonality, SIFO, BASENS comparison, SLW

Sep 12: Long GLD OCT 175 puts at 6.75. Long SLV OCT 39 puts for 2.10.
Sept 12: sold the GLD puts for +4%. There was little leverage in them (I bought them poorly which did not help). It seems better to deploy the money in a different way. I don’t pay much attention to how “expensive” options are. I might look into that. I was also short December gold. That ended up at +8%. I’m impressed gold did not go lower. And SLW is recovering well. In fact too well. Sold the SLV puts for +9%. This whole precious metals correction might just end up being sideways consolidation. And every central bank is printing like crazy.

June 1, 2011

Long APKT June 70 puts for 1.70 and LULU June 87.5 puts for 3.98 (update 1, June 4) -3%, +3%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, -0 to -4%, Long Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:43 pm

Game plan: If stocks gap down and start to rise above yesterday’s lows, or open up and keep going up, sell. Otherwise hold.

I usually don’t buy puts near the end of a big down day, but there seemed to be a good chance of at least temporary follow through.

– Today’s bar broke out and then failed and undercut yesterday’s almost hammer low.
– RSI > 70 on monthly timeframe. Also > 70 on the weekly a few months ago (often there is a lag). Those alone suggest a trip to the weekly magenta EMA at some point.

+ On both these charts, if prices really are headed down, the weekly CCI magenta line will get below -100 and price will could drop 15-20 points in a week. That reward is why I took the risk.
– But since the options expire soon, price has to move down quickly or it’s time to be out.
– Both stocks did not have huge volume today. So possibly they declined not so much due to selling, but a lack of buying?? I’m hoping the selling kicks in soon 🙂

June 4: Closed both positions on Thursday when LULU rose quickly intraday. And APKT was not even going down. Basically I shorted at the incorrect time as mentioned in this update.

May 16, 2011

Long TPX June 60 puts for 1.30 (updated May 17) +3%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, Long Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:27 pm

(Sorry for the late notice, had to be out rapidly this morning. More commentary later.)

May 17: Sold puts since stock was bouncing well off the 10 EMA. +3%

May 13, 2011

Long AAPL June 340 puts for 7.95 (update 4 May 17) +1%, +58%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, +51 to +75%, Long Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:10 am

Update: sold for 8.10. +1% Looks like price will bounce a bit?

Price had a chance to drop and didn’t. That’s certainly not crazy bearish.

Update: Bought again at 8.15. The stock just kept looking weak. I don’t expect more than a drop to 325. Since price is near a gap area and a trend line goes through that gap, I wonder if the stock could gap down a few points on Monday??
– Weekly CCI has a long way to fall if it want’s too.
-Monthly CCI is declining.
+ Daily CCI is quite oversold.

May 17: Seems like things will bounce. Took partial profit, then sold the rest a few minutes later. +58%.

April 14, 2011

Long SLW June 47 calls at 2.30 and general silver update +3%, -48%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, -25 to -49%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:37 pm

I really wanted to wait until tomorrow’s option expiration. But Xiphos Trading’s sentiment summed up the situation:

In the precious metals almost everyone is PETRIFIED of the downside (me too!) but the upside risk perception seems to be unvalued to me.

Not only was the price of silver was holding strong and rising as stocks were nearing the close, but the silver correction was very, very shallow compared to other silver corrections and compared to gold, crude, stocks, etc. It’s just silly not to be long most of the time.

I chose not to buy any far out of the money calls. They are all very expensive and too stressful to hold. 47’s are enough leverage. Typically I would prefer 42’s or 43’s when price is at 43.

In this case I figure that if SLW gaps open and does not hold the gap, the options can be sold. If SLW opens weak, sell for a small loss.

My take on CDE -7% and PAAS about -8% today from the news of the Bolivian gov wanting Bolivian silver? Less supply the public can buy via stocks. People are saying that is silver is up so much today. If that was true, then why is gold up a fair amount too??

Look how popular silver is getting. This snap shot was taken near the COMEX close. I cheery picked it — it’s more a representation at the extreme end of things. But still, silver is a small market compared to gold. Supposedly 🙂

The big picture suggests to me that silver can rise quickly for at least a few more weeks. Using the ratio (4.75) of the lead in vs. the rise to about $50/oz from the first consolidation, this recent rise would go to about $70/oz.

+ If March 1980 silver is similar to the current price pattern, a time based stop loss can be rather tight

April 15: Sold at the open +3%. Will probably buy again if price rises above the open, or near the end of the session, or the 60 min CCI declines and makes a bottom. The point is to avoid a big dip. I am happy to buy back in at a higher price.

Back in at 2.55. Started trading above the open price, already had a over 2 million shares traded and it seemed like there were a lot of buyers.

April 18: Opps, that was expensive. Out at -48%. Should have sold when the nascent breakout failed on Friday. And another clue was Friday closed low in the daily range. I choose to get out completely rather than wait and see if price recovers — after all, this is a buy zone. But it is more important for me to get centered again and sit with what caused the mistake.

February 7, 2011

Long JKS on backtest of EMA’s +2%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:01 am

June 28 calls at 5.20
Stop loss is a close under 34 EMA.

+ Just had 2 down days.
+ EMA’s pointing up
+ Low float stock of about 11 million shares.

This is likely a classic momo stock.

Feb 22: Sold for +2%. Sold because crude was up a lot it and JKS was not. That’s odd?? I was not interested in finding out, and wanted to reduce distractions from silver. And it was a small position.

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