Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

January 17, 2013

SLW – Looking to buy on a stop due to price breaking above down trend line. -8% (update1, Feb 17)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Stock — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:18 pm

+ Medium term RSI now above a long term RSI that seems to be rising.
+ Multiple indications of silver shortages.
+ January us mint silver eagle sales pass 6 million, mint suspends sales, states eagles are sold out!!
+ fed/gov keeps printing money.
+ price broke over the down trend line and had a little rest on near term EMA support.

Buy stop near todays high.
Stop loss around 3.75.

SLW daily jan 17 2013

Update 1 Feb 17
Stopped out even with a fairly wide stop loss near the trading range low. Note the updated down trend line.
SLW daily feb 17 2013

January 15, 2013

FB – sell Feb 30 call for > $200 (update 2, Jan 29) -16%

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Short Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:07 pm

Not selling if the stock opens significantly down. (Could fill the gap and keep going up.)
– Down on volume.
– Short term RSI closing under medium term RSI.

Should at least stall out here.
Stop loss is a close above 32.

+ FarceBook Is Out Of Gas

FB daily jan 15 s013

Update January 16: Filled at $220.

Update January 29: Covered at $256, -16%.

I would not want to be long, but more so, I don’t want to be short right before earnings tomorrow. The reward is not worth the risk.

FB daily jan 29 2013 10.45 pst AM

Update January 31:
Option had a low of $51 and closed at $155.

FB daily Jan 31 2013

November 6, 2012

Coffee – Buy stop due to NR7, and long term support near 150. -16%

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:50 pm

+ Medium and short term RSI’s are historically low.

Buy stop near today’s high.
Stop loss a bit under today’s low.
– Volume is not particularly positive.

Update December 3 2012: Stopped out 2 days after trade was entered. -16%.
KCZ12 daily Dec 3 2012

October 22, 2012

Corn – Buy stop due to favorable RSI’s and NR7 -21% (update 2, Nov 6)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:15 pm

Although the seasonals don’t seem favorable…

Nor the 10, 20, 30 year historical cycles (the 20 year looks best in a way)…

We have a tight stop loss.

Related
Corn – long on buy stop -31%

Update 1, October 23: Lowered buy stop to near today’s high.

Update 2, November 6: -21%.

October 13, 2012

WPRT – Long if buy stop triggered. -5% (update 1, Oct 21)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Stock — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:01 am

Caterpillar… soon, they’ll be powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG)… To expedite LNG-powered product development, Caterpillar has teamed up with LNG-engine-maker Westport Innovations (WPRT)… Here’s what Frank Curzio wrote about Westport…

Sales are expected to grow north of 50% annually over the next five years. The company projects profitability by 2014. But that could happen sooner as more trucking fleets save millions of dollars a year in fuel costs by switching their engines over to natural gas.

+ Primarily liking the RSI configuration.
+ Declining volume this past week.
+ Tight stop loss. (I’m getting done with loose stop losses.)

Update October 1: Stopped out -5%. The possible short term inflection point resolved downward. Now the shorter EMA’s are firmly heading down.

October 3, 2012

Silver – attempting to add to longs. -20% (update 1 Oct 9)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:01 pm

Attempting to add another long silver position near a 34.91 buy stop. Stop loss is a little lose at 34.15 ish. Adding too: Silver and gold – Long if a buy stop triggers near yesterday’s highs.

Update 1, October 9: Stopped out -20%. Not sure why I did not buy an option instead. Physical demand is still reported to be high.

ANIK – buy stop about 15.32 -11% (update 1)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Stock — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:18 pm

Stop loss is about 13.65. I’m using a wide stop loss initially, but will likely tighten it up quickly and take profits too soon.

+ From IBD’s 85-85 list.
+ Low float of 10.7 million.
+ Insiders own 18%.

Update 1 October 21: Stopped out. -11%. The experiment with wide stops is officially over 🙂

September 19, 2012

ACOM – Trying long again -8% (update 2, Oct 22)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Stock, Mistakes — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:38 pm

+ Weekly has a large channel.
– Daily has price trading below the red up trend line.

Buy stop around 31.50.
Stop loss around 28.90

Related:
+ ACOM and DVA: long if buy stops triggered. +1%, -3%

Update 1, October 11: I think this was a bad trade — I was trying too hard and too bullish with thinking that with every central bank in the solar system printing, everything will go up. Likely true, but it will take time. Few seem to understand this. Another lesson in “trade the bars, not my stary eyes”. Price is at support — almost time for another try at long, but the NYSI is trending down.

Update 2, October 22: Just to come full circle…

July 25, 2012

Silver, looking to go long SIZ12 on a stop (update 1, July 30) -7%

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Futures Trades, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:56 am

Buy stop near 27.65.
Stop loss around 26.50.
Bought a December 40 call 2 days ago for 0.1234. For record keeping, lets say the cost was 0.15, a bit above the current ask.

+ Down trend line has been broken with a consolidation sitting on top of it.
+ Long term RSI turning up.
– Short and mid term EMA’s pointing down.
– Bearish(?) rising wedge.

Update July 26 2012: Moved stop loss to about 27.25. Pretty weak “breakout” so far.

Update July 30 2012: Moving stop up to 27.35 ish.
– Volume not great.
+ RSI’s all pointing up and not over extended.

Update August 1: Stop hit -7%. I don’t think I handled this well. Because price was not really accelerating up, it would be better to have at least a break even stop since if price came back into the channel, it would likely go rather deeply into it.

(Edit: opps posted the September chart. Here is the December chart).

July 10, 2011

December soybean oil — looking to go long. (update 4, August 23) -8%

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:34 pm

Of course the safer entry was the NR7 2 bars ago, but I missed it. A buy stop at the previous bar high and stop loss under should do fine.

Weekly chart.

10, 20, 30, 40 year cycles — seems to be a turning point about mid July.

The MRCI monthly chart shows, relative to past lofty price levels, a lot of consolidation at a high level.

July 13: Long from 57.64, stop loss at 57.2. If price fills the gap, it should not go much lower. In fact it might be a good idea to take partial profit if price is not strong tomorrow.

July 18: Stop loss moved to 57.44. Price “should” not go below this.

July 19: Moved stop up to 57.5. Almost a good idea to stop and reverse.

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