Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 24, 2012

Sugar – looking to go long due to COT, historical price support and short term NR7 + 15% (update 2, Sep 24)

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Futures Trades — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:00 pm

September 11, 2012
The COT is bullish.

In a bullish position historically testing the 2006 peak at 20.

October sugar has a nice weekly pattern.

But it’s too close to first notice day. So onto March 2013 sugar. The weekly has a huge triangle.

The daily has
EDIT: Opps! This is for October. The trade is for March.
+ NR7 = buy stop at 19.65. (Actually 20.28 for March 2013) Stop loss near 19.20.
+ Good volume the past 3 days, but this might be an artifact from rolling over contracts.
– Just had 3 up days.
– Medium term RSI might need one more dip down.

Update September 17, 2012: Moving a partial profit sell stop up to near today’s low of 20.61 and the other half’s stop loss is slightly less than break even near 20.19.

Update September 24, 2012: Stopped out +15%

Similar stops for comparison.

September 17, 2012

Wheat – Interesting NR7 occurrences – looking to go long on a buy stop. + 21% (update 3, Sep 17)

Filed under: +06 to +25% — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:00 pm

Buy stop at around 898.
+ NR7 today helps offer low risk: Stop loss around 879.
+ Very much looks like a bull flag.
+ Medium term RSI (magenta) seems to be turning up.
+ The current correction is almost 2 months old.
– Still a fair amount of down volume on down days.

Update 1, September 12: Move buy stop down to todays high around 893.5. If filled, stop loss around 865.

Update 2, September 14: Took partial profit at 926 due to touching the top of the channel, +43%. Raise stop loss to beak even.

Update 3, September 17: Stopped out at beak even. This is exactly why partial profits are wonderful. (43% + 0%) / 2 = +21%

June 5, 2012

October sugar: Looking for a short covering bounce (+9%)

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:29 pm

Buy stop around 19.54. Stop loss around 19.23.

The small traders are unusually short.

June 6: filled at 19.51, moved stop up to 19.55 ish.

June 7: Stop moved up to 19.68 ish.

June 23: stopped out, +9%.

Pondering things now, it might have been better to buy a call?

September 11, 2011

Considering shorting gold or silver — only for a short heretical time :-) (update 2, Sep 12) +4%, +9%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, +06 to +25%, Long Puts — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:16 pm

(Did you know the origin of “heretic” is ‘able to choose’?)

A longer term look at gold.

A possible downside target could be 1,750 ish.

Great post by Peter Brandt Silver is a cross dresser!

References: Silver, seasonality, SIFO, BASENS comparison, SLW

Sep 12: Long GLD OCT 175 puts at 6.75. Long SLV OCT 39 puts for 2.10.
Sept 12: sold the GLD puts for +4%. There was little leverage in them (I bought them poorly which did not help). It seems better to deploy the money in a different way. I don’t pay much attention to how “expensive” options are. I might look into that. I was also short December gold. That ended up at +8%. I’m impressed gold did not go lower. And SLW is recovering well. In fact too well. Sold the SLV puts for +9%. This whole precious metals correction might just end up being sideways consolidation. And every central bank is printing like crazy.

August 26, 2011

Long half a position SLW OCT 40 calls (update 1, Aug 31) +18%

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:28 am

Mainly long right now due to the EMA test and seasonals. This does seem a bit risky since yesterday’s volume was not stellar. However, todays hammer bar (so far) is making up for that.

August 31: sold at 2.65, +18%. SLW was not confirming silver’s rise on the 5 min chart. Then SLW started to drop. Will post some charts in a new post later. I’m thinking there might be one more significant drop before really starting up in September. If not, I will try to get long again on dips on the 5 min or 60 min chart.

August 18, 2011

Bought SLW Dec 40 calls for 3.55 (update 2, August 23) +17%

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:56 am

Simple backtest of the near term EMA and down trend line.

August 23: going to play it safe and close position if price breaks yesterdays low “decisively” 🙂

August 23: Flat at +17%. I’m thinking there is a potential for some more weakness. If not I can buy above todays high.

June 29, 2011

SLW – long SEP 33 calls at 2.55 (update 1, June 30) +7%

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:14 am

Stop loss: price should steadily work higher. If not, get out.

+ Broke the 2.5 month declining trendline.
+ Middle term RSI crossed over longer term RSI and is still rising while shorter term RSI had a dip and is now rising.
+ Gap was filled 2 days ago.
– EMA’s still pointing down. Will probably take some time to work through those.
+ Volume declining into the tentative low shows declining interest.
– An opening gap up today. But it did get filled and price reversed.

Related
+ SLW update from Steve Sjuggerud – get ready to buy. And upcoming stock turning point might not be a high after all…

June 30: Exited position since the 5 min was weak and the mainly the 60 min has significant room to fall if it wants.

May 27, 2011

Long EZPW using a combination of options. Total cost about $10. (update 2, June 1) +14% basis margin

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Long Calls, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:30 am

This is an experiment. Interactive brokers made setting up the option combination easy. Essentially this makes a “free”call until expiration in June. If price has not moved up much, another short term put can be purchased. Margin is around $800 per option combination.
Long JUL 30 call at 2.11. And to pay for it:
Short DEC 30 put at 2.68. And to have near term down side protection:
Long JUN 30 put at 0.47.

I don’t intend on holding this option combination past June. If EZPW just trades near 33, time to look at exiting.

+ IBD Top 50 stock.
+ Price just seems to be in a consolidation.
+ EMA’s are all trending up.

A good reason to be protected when selling puts on momo stocks. This bar started at about $20 and dipped to about $10.

June 1: close positions due to general market weakness. Long the July 30 call +51%, Short Dec 30 put +17%, the June 30 put will likely expire -100%. +19% overall basis margin. I think I would do an option combo like this again.

June 1.1: Opps, June 30 put – 87%. Overall is about +14% basis margin.

May 26, 2011

Sold June 35 PCH puts for 0.85 — expecting a bounce. (update 1, June 1) +17%

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Short Puts — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 1:45 pm

Will cover on any decent bounce.

+ 3 stabs toward 35 with no follow through.
+ Long legged candles.
+ At long term EMA support and daily Bollinger Band support.
– EMA’s are heading down.
+ Weekly and daily CCI’s oversold.
+ Daily CCI crossed upward over weekly CCI.
– Monthly CCI heading down.
– Fair amount of selling volume, but trending down.

June 1: Wish I covered on the large gap up but was not at the computer near the open yesterday. Price “should’t” have gone this much lower so time to get out. +17% — even though the trade happened about 30 cents lower. Will wait for the daily CCI to dip below -100.

May 12, 2011

Long TSCO July 60 calls at 4.10 (update 2, May 13) +8%

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:13 pm

EDIT: I suppose it would be helpful to say why that’s a nice bar!
+ Kissed the EMA from above.
+ Has decently long lower wick.
+ Almost looks like a hammer.
+ Relatively low volume.
– Would be even better if it was a hammer or a narrow range 7 bar.

The conservative buy stop is at the top of that bar.

May 13: Sold partial profit +12%, then closed at 5%. Overall +8%.

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