September 11, 2012
The COT is bullish.
In a bullish position historically testing the 2006 peak at 20.
October sugar has a nice weekly pattern.
But it’s too close to first notice day. So onto March 2013 sugar. The weekly has a huge triangle.
The daily has
EDIT: Opps! This is for October. The trade is for March.
+ NR7 = buy stop at 19.65. (Actually 20.28 for March 2013) Stop loss near 19.20.
+ Good volume the past 3 days, but this might be an artifact from rolling over contracts.
– Just had 3 up days.
– Medium term RSI might need one more dip down.
Update September 17, 2012: Moving a partial profit sell stop up to near today’s low of 20.61 and the other half’s stop loss is slightly less than break even near 20.19.
Update September 24, 2012: Stopped out +15%
Similar stops for comparison.
Buy stop at around 898.
+ NR7 today helps offer low risk: Stop loss around 879.
+ Very much looks like a bull flag.
+ Medium term RSI (magenta) seems to be turning up.
+ The current correction is almost 2 months old.
– Still a fair amount of down volume on down days.
Update 1, September 12: Move buy stop down to todays high around 893.5. If filled, stop loss around 865.
Update 2, September 14: Took partial profit at 926 due to touching the top of the channel, +43%. Raise stop loss to beak even.
Update 3, September 17: Stopped out at beak even. This is exactly why partial profits are wonderful. (43% + 0%) / 2 = +21%
Buy stop around 19.54. Stop loss around 19.23.
The small traders are unusually short.
June 6: filled at 19.51, moved stop up to 19.55 ish.
June 7: Stop moved up to 19.68 ish.
June 23: stopped out, +9%.
Pondering things now, it might have been better to buy a call?
(Did you know the origin of “heretic” is ‘able to choose’?)
A longer term look at gold.
A possible downside target could be 1,750 ish.
Great post by Peter Brandt Silver is a cross dresser!
References: Silver, seasonality, SIFO, BASENS comparison, SLW
Sep 12: Long GLD OCT 175 puts at 6.75. Long SLV OCT 39 puts for 2.10.
Sept 12: sold the GLD puts for +4%. There was little leverage in them (I bought them poorly which did not help). It seems better to deploy the money in a different way. I don’t pay much attention to how “expensive” options are. I might look into that. I was also short December gold. That ended up at +8%. I’m impressed gold did not go lower. And SLW is recovering well. In fact too well. Sold the SLV puts for +9%. This whole precious metals correction might just end up being sideways consolidation. And every central bank is printing like crazy.
Mainly long right now due to the EMA test and seasonals. This does seem a bit risky since yesterday’s volume was not stellar. However, todays hammer bar (so far) is making up for that.
August 31: sold at 2.65, +18%. SLW was not confirming silver’s rise on the 5 min chart. Then SLW started to drop. Will post some charts in a new post later. I’m thinking there might be one more significant drop before really starting up in September. If not, I will try to get long again on dips on the 5 min or 60 min chart.
Simple backtest of the near term EMA and down trend line.
August 23: going to play it safe and close position if price breaks yesterdays low “decisively” 🙂
August 23: Flat at +17%. I’m thinking there is a potential for some more weakness. If not I can buy above todays high.
Stop loss: price should steadily work higher. If not, get out.
+ Broke the 2.5 month declining trendline.
+ Middle term RSI crossed over longer term RSI and is still rising while shorter term RSI had a dip and is now rising.
+ Gap was filled 2 days ago.
– EMA’s still pointing down. Will probably take some time to work through those.
+ Volume declining into the tentative low shows declining interest.
– An opening gap up today. But it did get filled and price reversed.
+ SLW update from Steve Sjuggerud – get ready to buy. And upcoming stock turning point might not be a high after all…
June 30: Exited position since the 5 min was weak and the mainly the 60 min has significant room to fall if it wants.
This is an experiment. Interactive brokers made setting up the option combination easy. Essentially this makes a “free”call until expiration in June. If price has not moved up much, another short term put can be purchased. Margin is around $800 per option combination.
Long JUL 30 call at 2.11. And to pay for it:
Short DEC 30 put at 2.68. And to have near term down side protection:
Long JUN 30 put at 0.47.
I don’t intend on holding this option combination past June. If EZPW just trades near 33, time to look at exiting.
+ IBD Top 50 stock.
+ Price just seems to be in a consolidation.
+ EMA’s are all trending up.
A good reason to be protected when selling puts on momo stocks. This bar started at about $20 and dipped to about $10.
June 1: close positions due to general market weakness. Long the July 30 call +51%, Short Dec 30 put +17%, the June 30 put will likely expire -100%. +19% overall basis margin. I think I would do an option combo like this again.
June 1.1: Opps, June 30 put – 87%. Overall is about +14% basis margin.
Will cover on any decent bounce.
+ 3 stabs toward 35 with no follow through.
+ Long legged candles.
+ At long term EMA support and daily Bollinger Band support.
– EMA’s are heading down.
+ Weekly and daily CCI’s oversold.
+ Daily CCI crossed upward over weekly CCI.
– Monthly CCI heading down.
– Fair amount of selling volume, but trending down.
June 1: Wish I covered on the large gap up but was not at the computer near the open yesterday. Price “should’t” have gone this much lower so time to get out. +17% — even though the trade happened about 30 cents lower. Will wait for the daily CCI to dip below -100.
EDIT: I suppose it would be helpful to say why that’s a nice bar!
+ Kissed the EMA from above.
+ Has decently long lower wick.
+ Almost looks like a hammer.
+ Relatively low volume.
– Would be even better if it was a hammer or a narrow range 7 bar.
The conservative buy stop is at the top of that bar.
May 13: Sold partial profit +12%, then closed at 5%. Overall +8%.