Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

August 12, 2013

JO – Buy Coffee (update 2 August 21 – 41%)

Filed under: -25 to -49%, Long Calls, Long Stock — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:30 pm

Buy DEC 25 calls for < 2.30.
Stop loss 1.10 ish.

Buy stop shares at about 26.05.
Stop loss 23.93

+ Gann Global has a nice video out advising long coffee suggesting a minimum 30% rise.
Long term coffee chart.

KC weekly cot august 12 2013

JO weekly aug 12 3013

+ All daily CCI’s are pointing up.
+ Today was a NR7 on the ETF sitting right on support.

JO daily august 12 2013

Update 1 August 13
Bought call for 1.85.

Update 2 August 21
Closing position at 1.10. Price did not break up, it continued with the main trend.

October 3, 2012

Corn – long on buy stop -31% (update 1, Oct 9)

Filed under: -25 to -49%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:16 pm

4 days ago while price was limit up, I think there were 10’s of thousands of buy orders wanting to get filled. The next trading day, Monday, all that buy pressure evaporated. Interesting.

Update October 9: Stopped out -31%.

July 16, 2012

Bought SBUX OCT 52.5 call for 3.65 (update 1, July 22) -41%

Filed under: -25 to -49%, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:05 am

+ RSI’s rising.
+ Past 2 days had good volume.
– Might be premature. Could wait for a back test.

Update: July 22
– Decline on big volume
+ Still in triangle.
+ The position is an option so I don’t have to deal with a CMG situation.

Keeping the position to take advantage of a possible CNG situation.

Update July 23: Gapped lower under a trend line. Far from bullish unless price could rapidly get back above the trend line.

June 19, 2011

December wheat – buy since oversold near previous support. (update 4, June 22) -46%

Filed under: -25 to -49%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:36 pm

Buy stop near 760.5
Stop loss near 741.

+ NR7 doji.
+ 7 down days in a row.
+ Daily and weekly RSI are low.
+ Price oversold near previous support.
Seasonals Major cycles are mostly pointing down.
+ The doji is almost completely outside the shorter term Bollinger Bands.
+ Commercials are net long and buying.
+ An AB*1.62 mark was hit.

June 19: Opps.. Correction, the 10,20,30, and 40 cycles are rather negative, but the MRCI seasonals are right at a turing point.

June 20: Moving buy stop down to 756, today’s high.

June 21: Long in overnight trade at 756.5. Margin is $4,050.

June 22: I don’t know why, but the stop did not trigger in overnight session. So let’s see if it triggers in the day session 🙂 Price was weak yesterday and made new lows overnight so I expect this trade won’t end up making money.

Opened gap down and so I put the stop under that low. It was taken out -46%.

April 14, 2011

Long SLW June 47 calls at 2.30 and general silver update +3%, -48%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, -25 to -49%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:37 pm

I really wanted to wait until tomorrow’s option expiration. But Xiphos Trading’s sentiment summed up the situation:

In the precious metals almost everyone is PETRIFIED of the downside (me too!) but the upside risk perception seems to be unvalued to me.

Not only was the price of silver was holding strong and rising as stocks were nearing the close, but the silver correction was very, very shallow compared to other silver corrections and compared to gold, crude, stocks, etc. It’s just silly not to be long most of the time.

I chose not to buy any far out of the money calls. They are all very expensive and too stressful to hold. 47’s are enough leverage. Typically I would prefer 42’s or 43’s when price is at 43.

In this case I figure that if SLW gaps open and does not hold the gap, the options can be sold. If SLW opens weak, sell for a small loss.

My take on CDE -7% and PAAS about -8% today from the news of the Bolivian gov wanting Bolivian silver? Less supply the public can buy via stocks. People are saying that is silver is up so much today. If that was true, then why is gold up a fair amount too??

Look how popular silver is getting. This snap shot was taken near the COMEX close. I cheery picked it — it’s more a representation at the extreme end of things. But still, silver is a small market compared to gold. Supposedly 🙂

The big picture suggests to me that silver can rise quickly for at least a few more weeks. Using the ratio (4.75) of the lead in vs. the rise to about $50/oz from the first consolidation, this recent rise would go to about $70/oz.

References
+ If March 1980 silver is similar to the current price pattern, a time based stop loss can be rather tight

April 15: Sold at the open +3%. Will probably buy again if price rises above the open, or near the end of the session, or the 60 min CCI declines and makes a bottom. The point is to avoid a big dip. I am happy to buy back in at a higher price.

Back in at 2.55. Started trading above the open price, already had a over 2 million shares traded and it seemed like there were a lot of buyers.

April 18: Opps, that was expensive. Out at -48%. Should have sold when the nascent breakout failed on Friday. And another clue was Friday closed low in the daily range. I choose to get out completely rather than wait and see if price recovers — after all, this is a buy zone. But it is more important for me to get centered again and sit with what caused the mistake.

March 31, 2011

Buy October sugar on a stop (update May 15) -43%

Filed under: -25 to -49%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:16 pm

Buy on a stop around 24.58.
Stop loss around 23.28.

+ A low risk buy stop has presented itself.
– The commitment of traders is not ideal.
+ This could be the start of a 5th wave up if looking at the weekly chart.
– If not, this trade will stop out due to being a bit early.

The sugar seasonals might be suggesting a nice multi week trend for early April.

+ Since the weekly CCI seems to be trending up, should be able to at least get above the 34 EMA.
+ October was selected rather than May since resistance was clearer.

– May sugar does have good volume though. But expiration is getting rather close.

May 15: No more paper trades. I was deluding myself that I was not solely focused on silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. -43% based on stop loss.

March 3, 2011

SLW – Part 2 of the silver and SLW campaign -36%, +41%, -3%

Filed under: +26 to +50%, -0 to -4%, -25 to -49%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:29 pm

Part 1: SLW – long short term and long term calls -4%, +60%, +65%, -15%, +53%

Open positions:
June 60 calls for 0.31.
June 45 calls for 4.35.
July silver 60 calls for 0.042.

Earnings to be reported after the close. If you sell a product for $30 that cost you $4 and you only have 23 employees, earnings might be okay — except for things that come up like HL’s skeletons.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Upside targets of around 45.12 and 46.67 provided by Rick Ackerman’s method. If price open’s gap up it might be time to sell the 45 calls? If price opens lower with a gap – that will be an interesting decision.

+ SLW has a good backtest on the December high.
+ At all time highs with good fundamentals.
+ Volume keeps rising.

References
+ The obvious and GARGANTUAN silver opportunity
+ Surveying the playing field: fortunes can be made or lost in the next month or so, and sent to PCH

March 5: Brian Hunt’s Market Notes showcases SLW.

Our friend Jeff Clark of Casey Research has commented that Silver Wheaton is such a terrific silver play, we can use it to judge the severity of a precious metals mania. If gold and silver enter a mania phase, Silver Wheaton will be the stock magazine publishers throw on their covers… it will be the “must own” stock discussed at cocktail parties… and folks will talk about Silver Wheaton’s royalty stream like they talked about Cisco’s networking sales back in 1999.

That is what I am betting on.

March 8: Steve Sjuggerud on SLW: Up 40% in Seven Weeks, Still Room to Double

SLW has a fair number of gaps, and I did not sell this one. Usually when a move is rather extended to the upside and there is a gap on the open, it’s a good time to sell. But not always, especially if price is not extended. I did not sell at point 10 because:
+ I want to keep the position despite daily price movements, unless they are very bearish. (Yesterdays bar did not even take out the low of the bar before it. Compare that to point 1 and 2. Point 4 is a little different because it might have received support from the 10 ema.)
+ Price is not extended compared to the the old high at point 2. (definitely extended compared to the recent bottom mid February.)
+ The 2011 backwardation has been following 2008 closely. That implies price can go up for at least 5 more days with minor corrections.

The other reason I want to hold onto the position is silver really could explode up at any time. Among other things, the stream of rumors about JPM offering cash premiums to not take delivery from the COMEX is continuous. Mr Chapman, about 1.5 minutes in, is saying premiums were at 80%. IF true that puts the real price of silver at around 65 frn’s/oz. Then add backwardation, the lack of Silver Maples, funky warehouse stats, etc, etc… One could sell the gap and be chasing price big time to get back in. Maybe that is a good plan? If every major gap was sold and bought back 1-2 days later, that would probably cover the loss of having to chase price. But I’m not at the computer all the time. So I don’t want the stress.

Note that usually when price gaps up, it just heads down. None of this bouncing back stuff after 10 minutes. If silver really is bullish, SLW could open up, and just start accelerating up 15% in a short amount of time.

March 10: Sold June 45 calls -36%. Will be updating the gap info above and point out the psychological blind spot. In summary, the account just gave away 5 points. The rational for not selling the gap up was having to buy back at a higher price. If if I that happened, would it take 5 points to do it? Probably not. I don’t have good enough rules for dealing with gaps. Will update this weekend.

March 11: Was doing other things so missed the gap down open. Will wait for a pullback on the 60 min chart. I was thinking last due to the big gap, it might take a few days to get a good bottom in. Nope!

SLW: Dividends could rise to as much as 50% of cash flow

March 23: Long June 46 (2.22) and 65 (0.23) calls 4 days ago. The 65 calls are a bet on a big price run up and will have to be closed if price starts to stall out. I think they were expensive and expire rather soon considering how out of the money they are. But, if silver really starts to run, it’s much better to have exposure to a large number of shares rather than just exposure. The 46 calls were rather out of the money considering what I normally like to do (at the money, or one strike out of the money), but they are already rather profitable.

I sold 3/4 of the June 60 calls (+25%) in order to avoid riding a drop down to 33-36. I doubt that would have happened (famous last words), but I would rather reenter than sit through a major drawdown “hoping”. I obviously was not trading that correction well 🙂 And SLW is still very overbought on a monthly time frame. Really need to learn to sell large gaps up when price is extended.

I still entertain the notion that SLW will be the biggest momo stock ever.

April 14: Sold all the June 60 calls +58% on Tuesday since price looked to go lower. So the average is +41%. I can’t easily find what I sold the June 46 calls for, but it was a profit. But I will drop it since I got into June 47’s that I did not list here (so I don’t keep official track) that I sold in a debacle at a loss. Sold the June 65’s at -3%. That was silly. Too expensive, too far away, and not enough time until expiration.

I did not really preform profitably with the trades in this post. This is one reason I got flat on almost everything on Tuesday.

January 25, 2011

Sold SJT Feb puts on triangle backtest -35%

Filed under: -25 to -49%, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:00 am

Sold Feb 22.5 puts for $0.25.

+ Triangle backtest.
+ Natural gas prices are rising.
+ 34 and 170 EMA’s rising and providing support.
+ Today’s drop almost closed the gap on January 11th.
+/- Daily CCI a bit high, but many times the backtest is too fast for the CCI to bottom.
+ Price seems to be bumping up to the underside of a bigger triangle.
+ Weekly CCI just crossed over the monthly CCI.
– Quite a few distribution days in the past few weeks.

Jan 25: Covered at $0.65 -35%. SJT is associated with natural gas. And since price held up ok yesterday, I did not cover the options. After all there were quite a few levels of support present. Although the lack of volume was a big caution. But I did not notice that, until today and covered asap. The move today is likely just flushing out weak longs. Or it could be some fundamental news item that could send the stock much lower. I don’t know and did not want to find out the hard way. It will be interesting to check back in a month and see what has happened with the options.

January 24, 2011

Sold TBT puts +13%, now long calls too -28%

Filed under: +06 to +25%, -25 to -49%, Long Calls, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:15 am

Bought Sold Feb 38 puts for $1.05.
+ Fundamentals are crazy poor.
+ Muni bonds are doing very poorly and yet money is not flowing from Muni’s to bonds.
+ Monthly and weekly CCI’s are trending up.
– Daily CCI is high.
+ A strong start today was reversed.
+ In a triangle.
+ 34 EMA and 170 EMA are rising.
+ Appears price will close above the 5 EMA.

Jan 19th: Bought Mar 40 calls yesterday for $1.80.
Jan 24: Covered short puts at $0.91 +13%. Exit plan for calls is close at -50% or if price closes above 121.5. Sold the calls for $1.29, -28%.
Lesson: When entries are not great, after a 20% drawdown consider selling half if prices get near break even or better. In this case price was up 20% — that’s a change of 40%.

January 19, 2011

Sold CXW calls: Will states pay for pot smokers to be jailed? -36%

Filed under: -25 to -49%, Mistakes, Short Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:32 am

I have read the US has more people in jail than any other nation and that each inmate costs about $20,000 per year. Apparently about 12% of them are for pot. I wonder how much people will care to continue with that??

Sold Feb 25 calls for $0.70. I did not sell short the shares since this is really not the environment to do so. But since upside seems limited selling calls should work out over the long term.

– 1.24 billion in debt, 34 million in cash.
– Both institutions and insiders are selling shares.
– Monthly, weekly, and daily CCI’s are heading down.
– Below 34 EMA.
– 6 distribution days since December.
+ In a wedge, but speculate price will drop out instead of rise up.

Jan 19th: This is turing into a mistake. If things don’t quickly reverse today, it’s time to keep a small mistake from becoming a big mistake.

Was looking for a drop like this:

Jan 19th: Covered the calls for $1.10 -36% I guess I should have waited a bit more. I am okay with this trade: I cut a potential loss short. One of the worst things to do is let a small loss become a big loss. I did manage to get out near the high though 😉 Now back to watch and wait mode.

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