Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 24, 2012

CRUS: Buy stop with limit. +39% (update 4, Sep 24)

Filed under: +26 to +50%, Long Stock — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:00 pm

Buy stop about 28.42, limit of about 28.60. Definitely using a limit due to possible gap over the down trend line.
Stop loss about 26.70.
Possibly buy Sept 27 calls for about 5.20.

Daily:
+ Decent up volume the past 2 weeks.
+ Rising medium term RSI.
+ 15% of shares are short.

Weekly:
+ Recent 3 weeks could just be a test of the past February 2011 high.
– Midterm RSI pointing down.
– Recent consistant up volume, but not like 2010.
+ Not a super extended stock
– The possible correction might need some more time.

So, if the buy stop is triggered, price better rise quickly or it’s time to get out.

Update July 28: In at 28.42. Stop loss moved up to about 27.35.

Update July 30: Stock is up about 23% after hours. Will very likely sell half near the open.

Update July 31: Sold half for +27%. Stop loss on the other half at 30.30 ish.

Update August 23, 2012: Moving stop loss up to about 38.70.

Update Sep 1: About 15% of float is short! Opps! Why do people short stocks hitting new all time highs? Maybe because the CRUS insiders are selling a fair amount in August? But still, why not wait for momentum to flag?

Update September 7: Moving stop loss up to about 40.35.

Update September 24: Stopped out +51%. (27 + 51) / 2 = + +39% overall.

October 23, 2011

Looking to go long December cocoa due to seasonals, COT, and NR7. (update 5, Nov 9) +40%

Filed under: +26 to +50%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:48 pm

Buy stop near 2954. Dyslexia?? 🙂 2594.
Stop loss near 2542.

+ Seaonals look to be at a turning point.

+ The mid term RSI is above the long term RSI.
+ The recent bottom in early October was tested.

October 24:
+ Ok volume so far. Expecting to get near 2700 relatively easily or else get out.

November 3: Stop moved up to 2665.

November 7: Moved stop up to around 2670. Price should rise from today’s NR7.
+ There was decent up volume the past 3 green bars.
+ Price is resting on the shorter term EMA.
– There is a potential seasonal turing point around November 9th.

November 8: Stopped out. +40% based on margin.
– Down on volume. (If volume was light, that might just be running stops like this. With volume though seems more bearish. Will be interesting to see what happens over he next week.

November 9: Why it was profitable to get out. Maybe today is a bottom. Don’t want to find out the hard way.

May 16, 2011

Long HLF June 100 puts for 1.60, and May 100 puts for 0.20 (update 2, May 17) +29%, +50%

Filed under: +26 to +50%, Long Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:20 pm

(Sorry for the late notice, had to be out rapidly this morning.)
+ The purpose of the very short term puts are if the stock starts to decline rapidly, the puts can go up in value 10 times. So even if the timing is off 5 tries in a row, the 6th or 7th can make the whole thing worth while.
– NR7 doji bar after a good run up.
– RSI is > 70 on all 3 major time frames.

May 17: Sold everything because price did not drop through the 10 EMA. +29% with the June puts and +50% on the May puts.

March 3, 2011

SLW – Part 2 of the silver and SLW campaign -36%, +41%, -3%

Filed under: +26 to +50%, -0 to -4%, -25 to -49%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:29 pm

Part 1: SLW – long short term and long term calls -4%, +60%, +65%, -15%, +53%

Open positions:
June 60 calls for 0.31.
June 45 calls for 4.35.
July silver 60 calls for 0.042.

Earnings to be reported after the close. If you sell a product for $30 that cost you $4 and you only have 23 employees, earnings might be okay — except for things that come up like HL’s skeletons.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Upside targets of around 45.12 and 46.67 provided by Rick Ackerman’s method. If price open’s gap up it might be time to sell the 45 calls? If price opens lower with a gap – that will be an interesting decision.

+ SLW has a good backtest on the December high.
+ At all time highs with good fundamentals.
+ Volume keeps rising.

References
+ The obvious and GARGANTUAN silver opportunity
+ Surveying the playing field: fortunes can be made or lost in the next month or so, and sent to PCH

March 5: Brian Hunt’s Market Notes showcases SLW.

Our friend Jeff Clark of Casey Research has commented that Silver Wheaton is such a terrific silver play, we can use it to judge the severity of a precious metals mania. If gold and silver enter a mania phase, Silver Wheaton will be the stock magazine publishers throw on their covers… it will be the “must own” stock discussed at cocktail parties… and folks will talk about Silver Wheaton’s royalty stream like they talked about Cisco’s networking sales back in 1999.

That is what I am betting on.

March 8: Steve Sjuggerud on SLW: Up 40% in Seven Weeks, Still Room to Double

SLW has a fair number of gaps, and I did not sell this one. Usually when a move is rather extended to the upside and there is a gap on the open, it’s a good time to sell. But not always, especially if price is not extended. I did not sell at point 10 because:
+ I want to keep the position despite daily price movements, unless they are very bearish. (Yesterdays bar did not even take out the low of the bar before it. Compare that to point 1 and 2. Point 4 is a little different because it might have received support from the 10 ema.)
+ Price is not extended compared to the the old high at point 2. (definitely extended compared to the recent bottom mid February.)
+ The 2011 backwardation has been following 2008 closely. That implies price can go up for at least 5 more days with minor corrections.

The other reason I want to hold onto the position is silver really could explode up at any time. Among other things, the stream of rumors about JPM offering cash premiums to not take delivery from the COMEX is continuous. Mr Chapman, about 1.5 minutes in, is saying premiums were at 80%. IF true that puts the real price of silver at around 65 frn’s/oz. Then add backwardation, the lack of Silver Maples, funky warehouse stats, etc, etc… One could sell the gap and be chasing price big time to get back in. Maybe that is a good plan? If every major gap was sold and bought back 1-2 days later, that would probably cover the loss of having to chase price. But I’m not at the computer all the time. So I don’t want the stress.

Note that usually when price gaps up, it just heads down. None of this bouncing back stuff after 10 minutes. If silver really is bullish, SLW could open up, and just start accelerating up 15% in a short amount of time.

March 10: Sold June 45 calls -36%. Will be updating the gap info above and point out the psychological blind spot. In summary, the account just gave away 5 points. The rational for not selling the gap up was having to buy back at a higher price. If if I that happened, would it take 5 points to do it? Probably not. I don’t have good enough rules for dealing with gaps. Will update this weekend.

March 11: Was doing other things so missed the gap down open. Will wait for a pullback on the 60 min chart. I was thinking last due to the big gap, it might take a few days to get a good bottom in. Nope!

SLW: Dividends could rise to as much as 50% of cash flow

March 23: Long June 46 (2.22) and 65 (0.23) calls 4 days ago. The 65 calls are a bet on a big price run up and will have to be closed if price starts to stall out. I think they were expensive and expire rather soon considering how out of the money they are. But, if silver really starts to run, it’s much better to have exposure to a large number of shares rather than just exposure. The 46 calls were rather out of the money considering what I normally like to do (at the money, or one strike out of the money), but they are already rather profitable.

I sold 3/4 of the June 60 calls (+25%) in order to avoid riding a drop down to 33-36. I doubt that would have happened (famous last words), but I would rather reenter than sit through a major drawdown “hoping”. I obviously was not trading that correction well 🙂 And SLW is still very overbought on a monthly time frame. Really need to learn to sell large gaps up when price is extended.

I still entertain the notion that SLW will be the biggest momo stock ever.

April 14: Sold all the June 60 calls +58% on Tuesday since price looked to go lower. So the average is +41%. I can’t easily find what I sold the June 46 calls for, but it was a profit. But I will drop it since I got into June 47’s that I did not list here (so I don’t keep official track) that I sold in a debacle at a loss. Sold the June 65’s at -3%. That was silly. Too expensive, too far away, and not enough time until expiration.

I did not really preform profitably with the trades in this post. This is one reason I got flat on almost everything on Tuesday.

February 25, 2011

UNG – time to sell some more puts (paper trade) +42%

Filed under: +26 to +50%, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:04 am

Sold March 6 puts for 0.70.

+ Hammer at past support.
+ Volume decreasing during decline.
+ Weekly CCI turning up.
+ Daily CCI above weekly CCI, but still low.

References
+ Bought March natural gas due to very long lower candle wick +0%
+ Sell UNG natural gas puts +17%

March 2: Opps, learned something:

WHY WE AVOID THIS POPULAR ETF [UNG] Back in September, we called this fund “The World’s Worst ETF.” The performance chart below shows why. As you can see, natural gas (the blue line) has gained around 40% since striking a bottom in mid-2010. Hamstrung by its futures strategy, UNG (the black line) has lost investors 40% of their money during the same time! Only Wall Street could build a vehicle that generates fees while investors lose money on an asset rising in price.

If you want to “get long gas,” stick with hoarding undeveloped or income-paying gas reserves.

On a month to month basis, it’s not the end of the world, but better to short puts with futures, or ECA.

March 18: Covered, +42%. UNG’s Death Knell Has Been Sounded via the 8K Filing

January 25, 2011

Sold LLL puts as price backtests triangle +41%

Filed under: +26 to +50%, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:00 pm

+ Price seems to have broken out of a 4 month triangle.
+ Pretty good breakout volume.
+ 170 EMA turning up and offing support.
+ Monthly CCI going up.
+/- Price did not back test very far, thus my caution about getting puts 5 points away.

Jan25: Covered for $0.28 (bought for $0.69) +41%. It’s very likely the puts will expire worthless, but I am reducing expose everywhere.

January 20, 2011

Sold WMT Feb 55 puts – not ideal. Breakout seems weak so far +40%

Filed under: +26 to +50%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:50 am

Sold Feb 55 puts for $0.88.
Exit: consider covering early. These options are very liquid so that makes smaller moves easier to profit from.

– The daily CCI is topping out. Not a big deal unless the breakout flops.
– So far today, not much volume.
+ 34 and 170 EMA’s moving up.
– Past month or so has seen a fair amount of red in volume.
+ Past 4 weeks has seen all green bars except for 3 days.

Jan 20: Bought back for $0.53. +66% +40 I did not do the math correctly the first time. It’s ((original – new )/original) *100.
In a toppy market, take profits too soon.

Blog at WordPress.com.