Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 24, 2012

10 year notes – short on a stop (update 4, Sep 24) -60%

Filed under: -50 to -74% — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:00 am

September 17
– Under 2 trend lines of resistance.
– RSI’s all pointing down but not too low.
– Weak up volume today
– Those 2 days of big up volume were quickly erased. The next day’s price did not even break the high’s. That can’t be bullish.
+ Price has not broken below the mid term EMA.

Update 1, September 18: I’m really not that interested in shorting gov debt. I think it will be the very last thing to drop because debt is the basis of FRN’s. Turd Ferguson’s Brass Tacks post basically confirmed this idea.

Update 2, September 18: Move sell stop to near today’s low.

Update 3, September 19: Move sell stop to near today’s low.

Update 3.x, September 19:Xiphos Trading’s take
How the Fed Just Destroyed the Bond Market, By Jeff Clark (Has an interesting chart.)

Move sell stop to near today’s low. Stop loss a bit higher than today’s high.

Update 4, September 24: Stopped out -60%. (Always based on full overnight initial margin.) I should really just wait until a definite down trend is established, or a very low risk juncture.

January 19, 2011

Bought Feb puts on AZO -71%

Filed under: -50 to -74%, Long Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:31 pm

Bought Feb 240 puts for $2.75.
Exit if price closes above 34 EMA.

I have no idea if this is the start of a trend down in general.

Of the 23 times $SPX has gone at least 30 days w/o a 1% drop, coming off a 52-week high, it was higher 3 days later 74% of the time. — Tweeted Jason Goepfert of today.

But I do expect the very over bought stocks to roll over a bit at some point. FFIV is down 22% after the close. I keep attempting to catch some of these but have so far not. Let’s try again:

Book value / share -18. Huh??
– Both insiders and institutions have been selling.
– Was an IBD Top Stock and now isn’t.
– 6 distribution days in the past 4 weeks.
+/- Sitting on the long term uptrend line. If price drops below that it should go to the 170 EMA which is about 230. So I picked a put half way to that possible target.
– The weekly RSI is > 70 which can mean a reversion to the 170 EMA.
– The monthly RSI > 70 which can mean a reversion to the lower weekly Bollinger Band at about 210.
– The 34 EMA is trending down. Another chance to short is if price goes up and kisses the EMA from below.

Jan 28: Price closed about the 34 EMA so got out at $0.81 -71%

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