Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

June 3, 2012

Buying Euro calls due to commercials being so net long. (-82%)

Filed under: -75 to -99%, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:08 pm

Long an August 1.32 call at 0.01101. (currently down 2/3rds)

+ Commercials (green line) are hugely net long.
+ Also interesting, the small traders (blue line) — weak hands — are record net short.
+ Investing advertisements are starting to tout strategies that short the Euro.

The weekly COT is just begging for a short covering rally.

The main question is timing. The weekly chart:
+ Price at Bollinger Band support.
+ Short term RSI (yellow) less than 30.
– Medium and long term RSI’s heading lower.
– Not much else.

The daily chart:
+ Oversold on short and mid term RSI’s
+/- Good volume on green candle, but not very good volume.
– Not near any obvious support.

The USX (about 60% the inverse of the Euro) seems to be at a turning point.

The strategy is to keep buying inexpensive calls with 2-3 months time on big down days. If the Euro gets a short covering rally, one call should pay for all the rest.

Update June 23: Sold on Thursday -82%. Price is not shooting up like I would expect. I did not handle this trade well. I should have either bought far out of the money calls to begin with or near the money and got out when price started down again.

April 28, 2011

Long SLW, (update 3: May 15) +0% -100%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, -75 to -99%, -Below -100%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:23 am

June 45 calls at average price of 2.15.
June 70 calls average price of 0.082.

Stop loss is price closing below this morning’s low.

The MRCI monthly silver chart is finally starting to look a bit extended.

+ Silver Warehouse Shenanigans or the Real Deal? Scroll down for the newer info and some historical perspective.
+ James Turk – The Waterfall Decline in the US Dollar Has Begun If true, far out of the money options might pay off well.
+ Mr Ferguson is suggesting a metal rise into mid next week followed by a dip into May 12 to 20 timeframe.

3 90% silver dies are currently worth $10.65.

Just speculation: At this point Mr. Bernanke would have to resign or be fired to stop the metal train.

EDIT: Sold the June 45s for 2.16. Don’t want to get caught in a down draft: SLW is still weak and I expect it to be weak until silver is above 50. Interestingly, the 70 calls are bid 9, ask 10. These are more long term speculations that I won’t trade hopefully for a while.

Now it’s best to wait until the medium term CCI looks to be bottoming. Price could easily go to the magenta 170 EMA near 41.

April 29: The trendline has been broken to the upside. Time to wait for a backtest. Those June 45 calls are now trading for 1.80, down -16%.

May 15: I was greedy regarding silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. Just going to assume the out of the money in-a-galexy-far-away option will be worthless.

February 14, 2011

Long SA since price looks to be breaking out of a 6 month channel (updated May 15) -78%

Filed under: -75 to -99%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:28 am

Bought May 34 calls at 1.80. Okay to buy out of the money calls since if price breaks out, it could make it to 37.

+ Price had a decent tentative breakout on okay volume.
+ EMA’s all trending up.
+ Monthly and weekly CCI’s moving up.
– Daily CCI not very low, but not expected if a true breakout.
– No follow through volume.
+ Float is only 36 million shares.
+ 14% of shares are shorted.
+ The short ratio is over 12. That’s a fair number of days.

Feb 23: Everything seems fine. Especially like the short ratio being 12.6 with a low float.

Xiphos Trading’s monthly SA chart, “Largest % of float short of any gold/silver miner of size”.

May 15: I was greedy regarding silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. Made a mistake of not taking partial profit and then a few weeks later “hoping.” Out at 0.40 (I think).

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