Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

July 22, 2013

FXA – Sell put + 82% (update 1, Sep 20)

Filed under: +76 to +100%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:28 am

Sell SEP 90 put for $85.
Buy AUG 88 put for $15, just in case.

+ Commercials are record net long. Doesn’t mean price can’t go lower, but it’s low probability, and significant downside should be limited.

AUD COT weekly july 22 2013

FXA daily july 21 2013

Update September 20:
+ 82% Won’t be adding a protective put in the future. Should have sold it near the initial low, though.

FXA daily sep 202013

September 21, 2012

NGX12 – Selling NOV puts. +91% (update 2, Oct 4)

Filed under: +76 to +100%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:26 am

Selling NOV 2.8 puts for 0.079

Update 1, October 3
+ Natural Gas — Now this is what a bottom looks like

The option is currently worth 0.010. It’s simple to close the position soon since the the bulk of profit is already done.

Update 2, October 4: Officially closed, +91%.
+ An Update on the Biggest Long-Term Trend in the Market Today

May 8, 2011

Looking to short July coffee (5th update, May 26) +99%

Filed under: +76 to +100%, Futures Trades — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:46 pm

+ Could bounce from a test of yellow 34 EMA.
– Pretty big volume the past 3 days and not so much the 6 days before that.
– Monthly and weekly CCI trending down.
– RSI daily divergence.
– Weekly RSI > 70 since last December. Suggests a pull back to magenta 170 EMA.
+ Price has not broken rising trendline for this move.

10 year cycle.

20 year cycle.

30 year cycle.

Commercials have been nicely short for a while.

This would be about a 2 week swing trade. Thinking price could move up a bit for 1-4 days. Will be watching intra day and try to short via futures and puts.

Opps, wanted to show the monthly chart. As Martin Armstrong just pointed out, “Anytime a market doubles like this [silver] in the last few months going into a high, it is the kiss of death.”

May 10: Short on May 9th at 2.878. Stop loss 2.954 ish.

May 11: Stop loss lowered to: 2.8715 ish.
– Price just blew through the lower Bollinger band with volume.
± AB=CD on the 60 min targets about 2.7.

May 14: Looking at the monthly chart indicates that the major tops were followed by 4-6 months of weakness with at least 50% of the rise retraced. I am tempted to start adding shorts, but since I’m being much more conservative due to last month’s poor trading, I won’t unless the opportunity has a good risk reward ratio. (I managed to lose money shorting crude’s huge 2008 drop by getting too cute.) Current target is around 2.45. Will lower stop loss to around 2.80 Sunday night.

May 26: Covered +99%. In addition to comments on the chart:
+ RSI started turing up.
+ Volume in down days trending down the past few weeks.
+ Although I was looking for a test of the medium EMA (magenta line), the weekly CCI possibly bottoming suggests time is running out for a decline and price could easily test the yellow EMA.
+ The fed/gov’s will apparently keep printing. Respect that effect on nominal prices.

March 30, 2011

Sold CNQ put (paper trade) (update May 15) +100% (put), -17% (stock)

Filed under: +76 to +100%, -05 to -24%, Long Stock, Mistakes, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:58 pm

Sold April 49 put for 0.50 yesterday when price was about 48.53.

+ Price opened below yesterdays low, tagged the 34 ema and rose a fair amount.
+ From the IBD big cap 20.
+ Stock is in an uptrend.
– Volume is pretty weak. THe very conservative might wish to cover.

May 15: No more paper trades. I was deluding myself that I was not solely focused on silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. Using Fridays low as the exit point for getting out of the stock.

March 24, 2011

PCH – selling far out of the money puts, again (paper trade) (updated May 15) +80%

Filed under: +76 to +100%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:49 pm

Sold May 35 puts for 0.50.

(Notice all these PCH put shorts have made money, easily.)

+ Looks like price might be coming out of a 4th wave. Doubtful it would close below 35.
+ EMA’s all moving up.
+ CCI’s all moving up.
– Volume is a bit tepid, but that’s the only slight negative I see.
+ In fact, the weekly CCI starting to rise from a dip with a rising monthly CCI is quite bullish.

The reason these are far out of the money puts is because there are not that many strike prices to choose from.

References
+ PCH – selling far out of the money puts +100%
+ Timber: An Excellent Retirement Vehicle

May 15: No more paper trades. I was deluding myself that I was not solely focused on silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. Covering at 0.10.

February 24, 2011

PCH – selling far out of the money puts +100%

Filed under: +76 to +100%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:27 pm

Sold March 35 puts for 0.30.

+ Price had a nice reversal of the 34 ema on good volume.
+ Longer term ema’s trending up.
+ Weekly CCI > monthly CCI.
+ Daily CCI is low.
+ 5.4% dividend.

March 24: Puts expired worthless, +100%.

January 26, 2011

Sell ECA puts (+90%) on backtest of triangle breakout, partial profit on calls +116%

Filed under: +76 to +100%, +Over +101%, Favorite Posts, Long Calls, Mistakes, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:00 pm

Sold ECA FEB 28 puts for $68 per contract.

– 3 distribution days the last week.
+ Tested the 34 EMA twice and closed higher.
+ Rising monthly and weekly CCI’s.
+/- Price is in a triangle and probably won’t close below the lower trend line without at least a bounce.

While looking at the chart I had a feeling I was missing something. I was. Here is the first chart I was looking at:

Here is a better accurate chart:

Drawing correct trend lines is critical. This new line makes the situation more bullish: Price is backtesting a breakout. It’s actaully time to consider buying the stock, or in the money puts, or even calls.

I like how Trader Vic draws them:

In analyzing a trend on the charts, the most useful tool is the trendline. One of the biggest mistakes made by amateurs and professionals alike is inconsistently defining and drawing the trendline. To be useful, the trendline must accurately reflect the definition of the trend. The method I have devised is very simple and very consistent. It fits both the definition of a trend and the inferences drawn from Dow Theory pertaining to the elements of a change in trend… For an uptrend within the period of consideration, draw a line from the lowest low, up and to the highest minor low point preceding the highest high so that the line does not pass though prices between the two low points… While this method is quite simple, it is extremely consistent and very accurate. The slope of this trendline is a close approximation of the slope you would get by doing a linear regression analysis on the price data over the same time period. Unlike other methods, it prevents you from drawing a trendline to suit your purposes — it prevents you from imposing your wish onto the trendline. It also provides the basis to graphically determine when a change of trend has occurred.

UPDATES:
Jan 12th: bought April 30 calls for $1.25 Lessons: Don’t buy calls in the first 30 -60 minutes of trade. It’s called amateur hour for a reason!

Jan 13th: Decided not to take partial profit yet since the move seems rather strong.

Jan 18th: Took partial profit of $2.79 / option for +120%.

Jan 22: According to Rick Ackerman, passing 2 past left peaks (circled) is bullish.

Jan 25: Covered the short puts at $0.07. +90%
Very well might close out the rest of the calls soon.
– Daily RSI > 70 and that rarely happens in this stock. Occasionally price can go up more, but in the data I have, RSI > 70 always lead to a pullback to the 34 EMA (or so).

Jan 28: Sold calls for 2.65 +112%.

January 19, 2011

Long SLW 33 calls +7%, sold Feb puts +97%

Filed under: +06 to +25%, +76 to +100%, Long Calls, Short Puts — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 2:02 am

Long SLW Mar 33 calls at $2.88 yesterday.
Exit quickly if just a small bounce.

+ A hammer yesterday on the down sloping trend line.
+ Volume is decreasing.
+ The hammer was outside the lower Bollinger Band.
+ The gap from November 4th should provide support.
– Price did not find support on, or in the gap. So will the gap be filled in the future??
– I don’t like trying to catch falling knives.
+ Daily CCI is oversold and about to cross over to the upside the weekly CCI.
– Both monthly and weekly CCI are down trending.
– The silver shortage idea is well supported in multiple regions.
+ Record sales of Silver Eagles this month: (This apparently uses up most of the silver produced in the US.)

From CoinNews.net: US Mint American Silver Eagle sales have already scored their best ever January. Who would have thought? After all, there is still a full week left in the month. On top of that, the bullion coins are rationed, they were unavailable for seven days, and U.S. silver futures tumbled 8.1 percent last week (6.7 percent in London).

Yet, January 2010 is now in the history books. It is the best starting month of a year for the series that dates back to 1986. Despite all the aforementioned obstacles, authorized buyers scooped up 3,090,500 Silver Eagles from the United States Mint as of Friday, Jan. 22.

Why choose SLW? Silver Wheaton: A Double in Waiting? I selected the 33 strike price because I think price will bounce and then possibly retest the lows. So I don’t want to have far out of the money calls.

Jan 19th: Sold for $3.08, +7%. Sold because I wanted to let the gap fill. Will buy again if todays open is taken out. Otherwise price will likely drift down for a day or 2.

Also sold Feb 31 calls for $1.06. 🙂

References: Silver fundamentals suggest higher prices after correction

Jan 22: Feb calls now going for $1.64, -55%.

Feb 9: covered the short puts at 0.11 +97%.

December 30, 2010

Sell February BUD put (paper trade) (updated May 15) +100%, +100%,

Filed under: +76 to +100%, Long Calls, Long Stock, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:57 pm

Action: Sell Feb 55 puts for around $90.
+ Apparently breaking out of the downtrend line.
+ Small down day (would have been if a narrow range day too.)
+ 3 waves down (corrective). EDIT MISTAKE: it’s 5 waves down but the waves overlap. So it could be corrective or a series of 1’s and 2’s. (I think?)
– Monthly CCI going down.
+ Daily and weekly CCI are fine.
+/- Volume: not sure.
+ B bands are compressed. Should expand soon.
– Not above weekly 34 EMA.

Jan 12: Bid NA, ask $0.30, volume of 2 at $0.15.

Jan 28: Kept meaning to sell the paper puts for the past few days but did not get around to it — one issue with “paper trading”. Now they are trading at about 1.55. I have closed all other short put positions, so I will keep this one open and see what happens.

Feb 23: The option expired in the money. The account keeps the premium +100%. Some things to note while waiting to see if a dividend is credited:
– If a call was not sold, the stock could be sold right now for a 0.7% gain.
– A March 55 call could be sold yesterday for 1.00, or today for 1.50. So wait until the daily CCI gets around +100.
– Could sell a June 60 call for 1.10.

March 1: Sell BUD April 55 call for 2.80.

March 23: Could have bought them back for about 1.30 last week. Just missed out on dividends of $1.18/share.

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