Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

November 6, 2012

Coffee – Buy stop due to NR7, and long term support near 150. -16%

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:50 pm

+ Medium and short term RSI’s are historically low.

Buy stop near today’s high.
Stop loss a bit under today’s low.
– Volume is not particularly positive.

Update December 3 2012: Stopped out 2 days after trade was entered. -16%.
KCZ12 daily Dec 3 2012

October 22, 2012

Corn – Buy stop due to favorable RSI’s and NR7 -21% (update 2, Nov 6)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:15 pm

Although the seasonals don’t seem favorable…

Nor the 10, 20, 30 year historical cycles (the 20 year looks best in a way)…

We have a tight stop loss.

Related
Corn – long on buy stop -31%

Update 1, October 23: Lowered buy stop to near today’s high.

Update 2, November 6: -21%.

October 3, 2012

Corn – long on buy stop -31% (update 1, Oct 9)

Filed under: -25 to -49%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:16 pm

4 days ago while price was limit up, I think there were 10’s of thousands of buy orders wanting to get filled. The next trading day, Monday, all that buy pressure evaporated. Interesting.

Update October 9: Stopped out -31%.

Silver – attempting to add to longs. -20% (update 1 Oct 9)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:01 pm

Attempting to add another long silver position near a 34.91 buy stop. Stop loss is a little lose at 34.15 ish. Adding too: Silver and gold – Long if a buy stop triggers near yesterday’s highs.

Update 1, October 9: Stopped out -20%. Not sure why I did not buy an option instead. Physical demand is still reported to be high.

September 30, 2012

KCZ12 – Bullish COT +1% (update 2, Oct 4)

Filed under: +0 to +5%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 1:54 pm

Buy stop 175.10
Stop loss 167.30.

+ Just back tested a 12 month old down trend line.
+ Medium term RSI above long term RSI and seems to be rising. Since this is basically a weekly pattern, a move up should last for a few weeks.
+ Nice long tail yesterday on trendline and EMA support.
+ COT is bullish.

Update 1, October 3: Moving stop up to a bit lower than break even. If price drops below 177.80 I will take partial profits. The RSI’s seem very bullish to me, so price “should” not drop much. If it does, I’m missing something and it’s definitely time to reduce exposure.

Update 2, October 4: Both stop losses hit, +1%. Will see if there is another low risk opportunity to go long in the next few days.

September 24, 2012

Sugar – looking to go long due to COT, historical price support and short term NR7 + 15% (update 2, Sep 24)

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Futures Trades — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:00 pm

September 11, 2012
The COT is bullish.

In a bullish position historically testing the 2006 peak at 20.

October sugar has a nice weekly pattern.

But it’s too close to first notice day. So onto March 2013 sugar. The weekly has a huge triangle.

The daily has
EDIT: Opps! This is for October. The trade is for March.
+ NR7 = buy stop at 19.65. (Actually 20.28 for March 2013) Stop loss near 19.20.
+ Good volume the past 3 days, but this might be an artifact from rolling over contracts.
– Just had 3 up days.
– Medium term RSI might need one more dip down.

Update September 17, 2012: Moving a partial profit sell stop up to near today’s low of 20.61 and the other half’s stop loss is slightly less than break even near 20.19.

Update September 24, 2012: Stopped out +15%

Similar stops for comparison.

September 9, 2012

Silver and gold – Long if a buy stop triggers near yesterday’s highs. +103% +130% (update 7, Oct 21)

Filed under: +Over +101%, Futures Trades, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:00 pm

August 8
First, you might like to read Peter Brandt’s Should the inevitable chart breakout in precious metals be trusted?

Tight stop loss a bit below yesterday’s low.

References:
+ Silver, looking to go long SIZ12 on a stop

Update August 9 2012: In gold at 1619.5 (margin $9,100) Edit: Stop loss around 1593. Lowering silver buy stop to 28.27 ish.

Update August 20 2012: Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46. Will update past stopped out positions later.

Update August 22 2012: Stopped out of gold long at 1593. -30%. Long SIZ12 at 28.27. Stop loss now at 28.38. I should have just bought long dated calls in the first place.

This chart highlights a favored set up of a buy stop on a narrow range 7 bar with support nearby.

Bean oil just showcased another set up.

Update 4, September 9:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, currently 5.15.
Long SIZ12 at 28.27, currently 33.69. Stop loss at about 31.80 because the minor test of 32 held.

Related
+ Silver: 4 reasons to be long
+ The obvious and GARGANTUAN silver opportunity

Update 5, September 30:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, currently 5.7.
Long SIZ12 at 28.27, currently 34.40. Stop loss at about 32.25.

Update 6, October 3:
Attempting to add another long silver position near a 34.91 buy stop. Stop loss is a little loose at 34.15 ish. Actually I decided to make a new post: Silver – attempting to add to longs.

Update 7, October 21:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, stopped out at 3.4. +130%
Long SIZ12 from 28.27, stopped out near 32.25. +103%
I paid tooooo close attention to “news” instead of bars and so left too much on the table. That always costs a lot!

July 25, 2012

Silver, looking to go long SIZ12 on a stop (update 1, July 30) -7%

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Futures Trades, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:56 am

Buy stop near 27.65.
Stop loss around 26.50.
Bought a December 40 call 2 days ago for 0.1234. For record keeping, lets say the cost was 0.15, a bit above the current ask.

+ Down trend line has been broken with a consolidation sitting on top of it.
+ Long term RSI turning up.
– Short and mid term EMA’s pointing down.
– Bearish(?) rising wedge.

Update July 26 2012: Moved stop loss to about 27.25. Pretty weak “breakout” so far.

Update July 30 2012: Moving stop up to 27.35 ish.
– Volume not great.
+ RSI’s all pointing up and not over extended.

Update August 1: Stop hit -7%. I don’t think I handled this well. Because price was not really accelerating up, it would be better to have at least a break even stop since if price came back into the channel, it would likely go rather deeply into it.

(Edit: opps posted the September chart. Here is the December chart).

July 15, 2012

OJ: looking to go long Sept OJ on a stop

Filed under: Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:45 pm

Buy stop around 124.45.
Stop loss around 120.20.

+ 4 down days in a row with falling volume.
+ Price testing a rising short term EMA.
– Medium and long term EMA’s falling.
+ Medium term RSI above long term RSI.

June 5, 2012

October sugar: Looking for a short covering bounce (+9%)

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:29 pm

Buy stop around 19.54. Stop loss around 19.23.

The small traders are unusually short.

June 6: filled at 19.51, moved stop up to 19.55 ish.

June 7: Stop moved up to 19.68 ish.

June 23: stopped out, +9%.

Pondering things now, it might have been better to buy a call?

Older Posts »

Blog at WordPress.com.