Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

October 16, 2013

CORRECTION: TSN, not NGVC: buy after possible ABC correction. -50% (update 1, feb 9)

Filed under: IBD Bounty, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:46 pm

Buy Jan 30 calls for 1.30.
Stop loss is a close a bit below point C.

NGVC daily oct 15 2013

Related
+ The “IBD Bounty”, a very simple breakout system.

Updated February 9 2014
Apologies — I mixed up 2 posts. The above chart is correct, but the ticker should be TSN. I am deciding, that for this strategy, that stop losses triggers when price goes down significantly for a few days. To the point it’s very unlikely to ever be profitable. Assuming the environment is basically a bull market. The reason why is the call that cost 1.30 could have been sold for at least 2.50 in January. Instead, it was sold for about a 50% loss.

TSN daily FEB 9 2014

 

September 23, 2013

NGLS – Buying due to small breakout. +3% (update 1, Jan 6)

Filed under: +0 to +5%, IBD Bounty — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:12 am

Bought March 2014 50 call for $300.
Stop loss is a close below 47ish.
Partial profits target is new highs.

NGLS daily sep 23 2013

Related
The “IBD Bounty”, a very simple breakout system. Watching AWAY.

Updated January 6, 2014. +3%
Decided to sell for a small profit a few trading days ago. (Sorry, just catching up now — normally I post trades in near real time.) There were 3 past times the position could have been (partially) sold for a bigger profit. But that did not happen since I was “waiting” for a bigger move.

NGLS daily Jan 5 2014

September 20, 2013

The “IBD Bounty”, a very simple breakout system. Watching AWAY.

Filed under: IBD Bounty — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:57 am

There will likely be significant volatility, but stocks are headed much, much higher. Specifically…

The lists change weekly, and who wants to go long 100 stocks, sometimes at a local top? So select those that have been resting a bit (month or 2), and buy when they leave that base.

  • Enter when Trader Vic’s near or medium term down trend line is broken to the upside. This is the catalyst. Trading above a significant reference point tends to “show” price wants to go up more than down.
  • Buy shares, or in-the-money 6 month calls. These are momentum stocks. If they haven’t gone up after a few months, something is not right.
  • Initial stop loss below nearest low, or rising trend line, or EMA’s.
  • Exits. 50% at first resistance, or a big gap up, etc., the rest with a close below the 20 EMA.
  • Postion size: Risk/use 5% of available capital.

AWAY sep 19 2013 daily

Update 1, October 5:
Illustrations:
– Entry: Why wait until the trend line is broken? Buying the stock around point 1 would have resulted in a 15% drawdown. And if the overall market had gone lower, this stock could have gone much lower. Note that because a new low was made the trend line is redrawn (blue).
– The ABC correction is ubiquitous. It flushed out the weak hands. Chances are about 50/50 the correction is over. AWAY’s correction so far seems to be a complex correction. That’s okay. Not breaking the trednline to the upside kept us out of the position.
– Initial stop loss: Note price never closed below lower support (point 2).
– Options verses shares: Shares would have resulted in a 15% drawdown. For 100 shares, that would be about $450. (Maybe much more. Stocks like this can drop substantially.) A JAN 2014 30 call options would have cost about $450  and right now is worth about $285. In other words, long dated at or in the money options can reduce risk.

AWAY daily oct 5 2013

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