Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

January 20, 2015

Snippets and quotes

Filed under: Just Watching — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:05 am

Hyperinflation unfolds when a government CANNOT issue debt so they print. — Martin Armstrong

A tiger doesn’t lose sleep over the opinion of sheep. — Zig

When small people begin to cast big shadows, it means that the sun is about to set. — Lin Yutang

A leader is best when people barely know he exists, when his work is done, his aim fulfilled, they will say: we did it ourselves. — Lao Tzu

How We Got Our (7) Kids in College by Age 12
… we never say “buy this or that curriculum” or “follow these steps and — presto! — your kids will get into college by 12.” What we do share is the advice that if we as parents LET OUR KIDS WORK AT THEIR OWN PACE, PROVIDE MATERIAL THAT THE KIDS ARE INTERESTED IN, AND NEVER HOLD THEM BACK, then they’ll begin to see amazing results. 

As a nation begins to prosper, it ALWAYS begins to import goods and it also invests its income outside the home country. This causes the current account to decline into negative territory yet it is reflective of a boom, not a bust. — Martin Armstrong on India

DEBT has always been the Great Destroyer of Civilization. It is the opium of governments since the dawn of time. — Martin Armstrong

Markets work. As prices move higher, new supplies are bound to be discovered and flood the market. It’s only a matter of time. — Porter Stansberry

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists. — 1935

Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. – Jack Bogle

The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it—but in the end, there it is. – Winston Churchill

I began learning long ago that those who are happiest are those who do the most for others. — Booker T. Washington

An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile—hoping it will eat him last. — Winston Churchill

So we pour in data from the past to fuel the decision-making mechanisms created by our models, be they linear or nonlinear. But therein lies the logician’s trap: past data from real life constitute a sequence of events rather than a set of independent observations, which is what the laws of probability demand… It is in those outliers and imperfections that the wildness lurks. — Peter L. Bernstein

Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail. — Ralph Waldo Emerson

The greatest remedy for anger is delay. — Thomas Paine

Goal seeking emerges directly from a long-term drive to increase future freedom of action… Intelligence should be viewed as a physical process that tries to maximize future freedom of action and avoid constraints in its own future. — Alex Wissner-Gross

Mathematicians think in symbols, physicists in objects, philosophers in concepts, geometers in images, writers in impressions, and idiots in words — Nassim N. Taleb

An easy way to find out if people really know what they are talking about is ask:

  •  What is the error rate? A real study / scientist will have a number handy, or at least be able to address the topic in a sensible way. A fruadster will, at best say, “I don’t know”, worst make stuff up.
  • What is the sample population size? If there are a million of something, but only 10 are tested, probably meaningless. For simple studies, a very general rule of thumb is that the sample size needs to be at least 30.
  • What is the chance, with error rate, that that will happen to me?

May 4, 2014

April snippets

Filed under: Just Watching — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:36 pm

The  best way to manage anything is by making use of its own nature. — Lao Tzu

You always learn more by studying when something doesn’t work. — Porter Stansberry

From Strenghts Finder 2.0 Amazon review, “We found that if your manager focuses on your strengths, your chances of being actively disengaged go down to one in one hundred. However, if your manager primarily focuses on your weaknesses, your chances of being actively disengaged are 22%, and if your manager ignores you, that percentage rises to 40%… It basically mirrors the psychology of raising kids — being completely ignored is the worst possible psychological state. You would actually feel better if your manager went from ignoring you to focusing on what you do wrong all the time, because then at least she’s paying attention to you.

The biggest threat to your wealth is not the government, the banks or market manipulators, says Rick Rule. It is almost always your own lack of conviction, courage, or knowledge… So don’t fear manipulation. Fear your own mistakes due to emotional decision-making and prejudices set by your experience in the immediate past.

“I have no contract with the United States government,” Bundy said. “I was paying grazing fees for management and that’s what BLM was supposed to be, land managers and they were managing my ranch out of business, so I refused to pay.” — ABC news (Awesome!! contracts, vs law, and contracts peacefully won for the first time in a long time. If the “law” “implies” that Mr. Bundy pays rent, then it also implies that the BLM manages well. That is all indirect communication and a management mess. Much better to use contracts that specify the responsibilities of each party, and the amends if not fulfilled.

Value converts everything into a social hieroglyphic … Obstacles in the path are not obstacles; they are the path … You were born an original, don’t die a copy. — ???

Wait for the wisest of all counselors, time. — Pericles

Good intelligence is 0.9 of any battle. — Napoleon

Order and simplification are the first steps toward the mastery of a subject. — Thomas Mann

Losing an illusion makes you wiser than finding a truth. — Ludwig Borne

I’d rather see folks doubt what’s true than accept what isn’t. — Frank A.  Clark

It is not who is right, but what is right, that is important. — Thomas Huxley

The  best way to manage anything is by making use of its own nature. — Lao Tzu

Managers are people who do things right, and leaders are people who do the right thing. — Warren G. Bennis

It’s gotta come from the heart, if you want it to work. — Susannah Clark

A champion is someone who gets up, even when they can’t. — Unknown

Try not to become a person of success but a person of value. — Albert Einstein

The richest person is not who has the most, but who needs the least. -— Unknown Author

Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the men of old; seek what they sought. -— Basho

The cure for boredom is curiosity. There is no cure for curiosity. -— Ellen Parr

Today I caught myself smiling for no reason… then I realized I was thinking about you. — Unknown

Look up: “…smart phones and dumb people…”

March 22, 2014

Possible SLW buy based on SLW : Silver ratio

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:17 am

Ed Steer: For the week:
– Gold was down 3.4
– The HUI lost 8.6%.
This is normal

– Silver was down 5.5%
– Silver stock index closed lower by only 2.9%.
This is not normal. Typically the index should be down over 10% (if not 5,000%!). The typical explanation is that strong hands are buying silver shares and silver and the silver shares should go up soon. When the top is near, silver should keep going up, and silver shares should under preform.

Graphically, the SLW : silver ratio is rising, suggesting more upside in general. If true, for the next few days, SLW is a buy on a stop of about 25.5, with stop loss a bit under 24.5.

SLW Ag ratio MAR 22 2014

Update 1, May 4 2014
And avoiding that down draft is why I like to buy on a stop. A small divergence seems to have marked a local bottom.
Ag SLW ratio May 4 2014

February 13, 2014

SLW move so far looks strong.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:44 pm

Today even when silver and SPY were dipping, SLW was rising. Pretty good show of relative strength.

The HUI : SPY weekly ratio has tentatively broken out.

HUI SPY feb 13 2014

The SLW : silver ratio is also looking like SLW price can easily go higher: SLW is leading silver by a lot. The orange arrows show that the ratio has already broken out to the upside. Typically a sign of strength.

SLW silver daily feb 13 2014

Update: And just the fact that price had an outside up day and did not really test the January high and 170 EMA — that also shows strength.

SLW daily feb 13 2014

August 29, 2013

Crude Oil — Looking to short soon

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:30 pm

– Commercials appear to be near record short.
QM weekly COT aug 29 2013

– Jeff Clark, excellent trader, suggests a small rise of about $5, then that could be it. But that could fail and things.

But as the price of oil approaches the $113 target level and the threat of military action runs its course, oil is likely to form an important intermediate-term top.

– CCI’s looking weak.
qmv13 aug 29 daily 2013

– Cycles point lower too.
CL cycles august 29 2013

August 11, 2013

XOM – sell puts soon? (update 1, Aug 15)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:31 am

+ Medium term magenta CCI is nearing a bottom.
+ Up trend line nearby.
+ Medium term magenta EMA nearby.

Giving it a few more days then might sell a SEP 90 or 92.5 put.

XOM daily Aug 11 2013

Update 1, August 15
This is why I like to wait for confirmation: price can easily just keep going. The fact that price went through 2 significant supports could suggest this move is rather strong.

XOM daily Aug 15 2013

July 21, 2013

A little silver update… (update 1, July 22)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:23 pm

+ Bullish percent is finally rising.

BPGDM weekly july 21 2013

+ SLW is leading the $silver price. Supposedly that means a rally has legs.

SLW silver ratio daily july 21 2013

I have always preferred SLW. Well, it looks like FSM might be better.
+ SLW declined lower than FSM on multiple time frames.
+ FSM’s rise over the last month or so has been about 5% higher than SLW.

FSM SLW july 21 2013

I’m currently long FSM SEP 2.50 calls.

FSM daily july 21 2013

Update July 22: So far incorrect in assuming FSM will outpace SLW. After first hour of trade, FSM +2%, SLW +6%

February 27, 2013

SLW – still waiting for a low risk buy pattern.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:31 pm

+ The signs of a desperate bottom are starting to appear in the junior-mining sector… We’re starting to see dollar bills trading for 80 cents. Has a chart and a table (Stansberry).

– 1 issue is there is no prior chart support near 31.5 to 32 to the left. I have read that does not suggest a solid bottom. Bouncing off decent support, say 28 or 26.5-ish, supposedly would suggest a solid bottom

SLW silver ratio daily feb 28 2013

+  SLW – Waiting for a low risk buy due to small short interest, and SLW:silver ratio strength.

February 17, 2013

SLW – Waiting for a low risk buy due to small short interest, and SLW:silver ratio strength.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:33 pm

SLW Short Interest
SLW weekly feb 17 2013

SLW silver ratio daily feb 17 2013

+ SLW – Looking to buy on a stop due to price breaking above down trend line. -8%

October 22, 2012

SLW – Lots of nice and big green volume bars. (update 1, Oct 24)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:00 pm

With seemingly every gov debasing, SLW might just be the premier security.

+ SLW : Silver ratio musings…
+ SLW:silver ratio suggests higher prices
Silver – attempting to add to longs. -20%
+ 25 prominent hedge funds position’s on gold and silver hold no surprises: No silver, 3% of positions gold related and typically small.
“Nothing, but nothing, moves like silver.” Maybe no weekly dip for another 4 weeks.
+ Silver and gold – Long if a buy stop triggers near yesterday’s highs. +103% +130%

Update 1, October 24: Well, things don’t seem so bullish now 🙂 With the openly admitted and active debasement actions by multiple gov’s, I continue to be surprised that the metals are not ascending in a big, or at least steady, way. Just another reason for me not to trade what I think. Just trade what I see.

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