Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

August 7, 2014

SLW – Time to go long

Filed under: *OPEN TRADES, Long Calls, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:47 am

The SLW : Silver ratio keeps rising, and it looks like a mini breakout is holding.
Short March 2015 27 put @ 2.95
Long March 2015 27 call @ 2.55

No stop loss.

SLW daily AUG 7 2014

Update 1, Jan 20 2015
Well, it was not time to go long after all. Will likely be rolling over the options.

SLW daily 20 jan 2015

October 16, 2013

CORRECTION: TSN, not NGVC: buy after possible ABC correction. -50% (update 1, feb 9)

Filed under: IBD Bounty, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:46 pm

Buy Jan 30 calls for 1.30.
Stop loss is a close a bit below point C.

NGVC daily oct 15 2013

Related
+ The “IBD Bounty”, a very simple breakout system.

Updated February 9 2014
Apologies — I mixed up 2 posts. The above chart is correct, but the ticker should be TSN. I am deciding, that for this strategy, that stop losses triggers when price goes down significantly for a few days. To the point it’s very unlikely to ever be profitable. Assuming the environment is basically a bull market. The reason why is the call that cost 1.30 could have been sold for at least 2.50 in January. Instead, it was sold for about a 50% loss.

TSN daily FEB 9 2014

 

September 13, 2013

Coffee – Nibbling long again -34% (update 1, Sept 17)

Filed under: Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:43 am

Buy DEC 24 call for 1.75
+ Commercial COT still very net long
+ Price just broke out of the 2 year down trendline.

JO daily sep 12 7.18 pst

Related
JO – Buy Coffee (update 2 August 21 – 41%)

Update 1, September 17:
Price broke back below the trend line invalidating the reason for the trade so time to exit. -34%

JO daily sep 17 8.20.2013

August 12, 2013

JO – Buy Coffee (update 2 August 21 – 41%)

Filed under: -25 to -49%, Long Calls, Long Stock — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:30 pm

Buy DEC 25 calls for < 2.30.
Stop loss 1.10 ish.

Buy stop shares at about 26.05.
Stop loss 23.93

+ Gann Global has a nice video out advising long coffee suggesting a minimum 30% rise.
Long term coffee chart.

KC weekly cot august 12 2013

JO weekly aug 12 3013

+ All daily CCI’s are pointing up.
+ Today was a NR7 on the ETF sitting right on support.

JO daily august 12 2013

Update 1 August 13
Bought call for 1.85.

Update 2 August 21
Closing position at 1.10. Price did not break up, it continued with the main trend.

September 17, 2012

“Nothing, but nothing, moves like silver.” Maybe no weekly dip for another 4 weeks. -100% (update 4, Jan 21)

Filed under: -Below -100%, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:00 am

September 16
Don’t recall who to attribute the quote too, but it has always stuck with me.

EDIT New image: (can now compare current rise with past rise directly)

Old image:

I’m not big on “targets”, and these might not be drawn correctly, but here are a few.

Related:
+ The obvious and GARGANTUAN silver opportunity
+ Silver And Gold – Long If A Buy Stop Triggers Near Yesterday’s Highs.
+ Silver: 4 Reasons To Be Long

Update September 17, 2012: Bought a few JAN 2013 70 calls for 0.010 on the dip (for fun). The chances of them ever being worth anything is very remote. And if silver explodes, the chance of being paid for holding them just as remote 🙂 That’s why it’s “for fun”. (Sep 18: I left an open order for some more and was filled at 0.005 🙂

Update September 30, 2012: Bought a few JAN 55’s for 0.04 for fun too.
+ New Silver Upleg

Update 3, October 21:

Update 4, January 21, 2013:
Cheap options usually expire worthless. 🙂

SIH13 daily jan 17 2013

September 14, 2012

FCX (copper): looking to go long due to favorable COT (update 4, Oct 21)

Filed under: +Over +101%, Long Calls, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:50 am

September 1, 2012
A blurb and background (with a great chart!) from Brett Eversole

The big news sources enjoyed reporting that China’s copper imports fell 17.5% between May and June. What they didn’t tell you is that June imports were up 24% over the previous year. And July imports were up again.

Because “large traders” are near historic short levels, Mr. Eversole suggests that FCX could rise over 100% in the next 14 months.

FCX trades for Monday:
Long NOV 35 calls for about $285. (A normal strategy.)
Short SEP 34 puts for about $40. (Due to commercial buying, downside is likely limited.)
Long Jan 2012 2014 45 calls for about $275. (If the “target” price and time is 60 in a year, 45 is half way between 30 and 60. I usually vastly favor trend following over “targets”, but this is very defined. Let’s see what happens.)

+ Solid up volume days in the past 2 months with declining down volume.
+ RSI’s are fine.
+ Broke and tested the near term down trend line. Next trend line hurdle is associated with the January 2011 top.
– Missed the low risk entry on Friday.
– The seasonals and historic cycles are unclear to me.

Notice FCX has had 2 dips toward the down trend line. HG has only had one. Supposedly the stock leading the commodity is bullish for both.

Related:
+ Update on acquiring nickels. Currently worth 7.27 cents (Now 4.8 cents) Seriously, who could not be saving nickels??? KISS!
+ Waiting for a bounce setup in copper near 3.23.

Update 1, September 4: Xiphos Trading’s copper chart

Long NOV 35 calls for about $255.
Short SEP 34 puts for $50.
Long Jan 2014 45 calls for about $260.

Update 2, September 7: Peter L Brandt Copper has a history with the compound fulcrum pattern

Long NOV 35 calls for about $255. Now $505.
Short SEP 34 puts for $50. Now $5.
Long Jan 2014 45 calls for about $260. Now $385.

Update 3, September 8: Trend lines matter.

Update 4, September 14: Taking partial profit
Long NOV 35 calls for about $255. Now $810. +217%.
Short SEP 34 puts for $50. Now $1. Doing nothing.
Long Jan 2014 45 calls for about $260. Now $560. +115%.

Update 4, October 21: Trade still preforming well.
Long NOV 35 calls for about $255. Now $630.
Short SEP 34 puts for $50. Expired worthless. +100%
Long Jan 2014 45 calls for about $260. Now $440.

Update September 20 2013
I lost track of things 🙂

September 9, 2012

Silver and gold – Long if a buy stop triggers near yesterday’s highs. +103% +130% (update 7, Oct 21)

Filed under: +Over +101%, Futures Trades, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:00 pm

August 8
First, you might like to read Peter Brandt’s Should the inevitable chart breakout in precious metals be trusted?

Tight stop loss a bit below yesterday’s low.

References:
+ Silver, looking to go long SIZ12 on a stop

Update August 9 2012: In gold at 1619.5 (margin $9,100) Edit: Stop loss around 1593. Lowering silver buy stop to 28.27 ish.

Update August 20 2012: Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46. Will update past stopped out positions later.

Update August 22 2012: Stopped out of gold long at 1593. -30%. Long SIZ12 at 28.27. Stop loss now at 28.38. I should have just bought long dated calls in the first place.

This chart highlights a favored set up of a buy stop on a narrow range 7 bar with support nearby.

Bean oil just showcased another set up.

Update 4, September 9:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, currently 5.15.
Long SIZ12 at 28.27, currently 33.69. Stop loss at about 31.80 because the minor test of 32 held.

Related
+ Silver: 4 reasons to be long
+ The obvious and GARGANTUAN silver opportunity

Update 5, September 30:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, currently 5.7.
Long SIZ12 at 28.27, currently 34.40. Stop loss at about 32.25.

Update 6, October 3:
Attempting to add another long silver position near a 34.91 buy stop. Stop loss is a little loose at 34.15 ish. Actually I decided to make a new post: Silver – attempting to add to longs.

Update 7, October 21:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, stopped out at 3.4. +130%
Long SIZ12 from 28.27, stopped out near 32.25. +103%
I paid tooooo close attention to “news” instead of bars and so left too much on the table. That always costs a lot!

July 25, 2012

Silver, looking to go long SIZ12 on a stop (update 1, July 30) -7%

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Futures Trades, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:56 am

Buy stop near 27.65.
Stop loss around 26.50.
Bought a December 40 call 2 days ago for 0.1234. For record keeping, lets say the cost was 0.15, a bit above the current ask.

+ Down trend line has been broken with a consolidation sitting on top of it.
+ Long term RSI turning up.
– Short and mid term EMA’s pointing down.
– Bearish(?) rising wedge.

Update July 26 2012: Moved stop loss to about 27.25. Pretty weak “breakout” so far.

Update July 30 2012: Moving stop up to 27.35 ish.
– Volume not great.
+ RSI’s all pointing up and not over extended.

Update August 1: Stop hit -7%. I don’t think I handled this well. Because price was not really accelerating up, it would be better to have at least a break even stop since if price came back into the channel, it would likely go rather deeply into it.

(Edit: opps posted the September chart. Here is the December chart).

July 16, 2012

Bought SBUX OCT 52.5 call for 3.65 (update 1, July 22) -41%

Filed under: -25 to -49%, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:05 am

+ RSI’s rising.
+ Past 2 days had good volume.
– Might be premature. Could wait for a back test.

Update: July 22
– Decline on big volume
+ Still in triangle.
+ The position is an option so I don’t have to deal with a CMG situation.

Keeping the position to take advantage of a possible CNG situation.

Update July 23: Gapped lower under a trend line. Far from bullish unless price could rapidly get back above the trend line.

June 3, 2012

Buying Euro calls due to commercials being so net long. (-82%)

Filed under: -75 to -99%, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:08 pm

Long an August 1.32 call at 0.01101. (currently down 2/3rds)

+ Commercials (green line) are hugely net long.
+ Also interesting, the small traders (blue line) — weak hands — are record net short.
+ Investing advertisements are starting to tout strategies that short the Euro.

The weekly COT is just begging for a short covering rally.

The main question is timing. The weekly chart:
+ Price at Bollinger Band support.
+ Short term RSI (yellow) less than 30.
But…
– Medium and long term RSI’s heading lower.
– Not much else.

The daily chart:
+ Oversold on short and mid term RSI’s
+/- Good volume on green candle, but not very good volume.
– Not near any obvious support.

The USX (about 60% the inverse of the Euro) seems to be at a turning point.

The strategy is to keep buying inexpensive calls with 2-3 months time on big down days. If the Euro gets a short covering rally, one call should pay for all the rest.

Update June 23: Sold on Thursday -82%. Price is not shooting up like I would expect. I did not handle this trade well. I should have either bought far out of the money calls to begin with or near the money and got out when price started down again.

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