I might be a bit late to the party — price could easily be doing a fake breakdown. We will see. Stop loss is a strong close above 141.
October 17: Since anyone can now get in at a better price 🙂 this trade will be official. Long DEC 135 puts for 1.76.
– RSI’s could still go down much more, not that they have too. Just that there is room.
October 25: -61% I was late to the party 🙂
(Did you know the origin of “heretic” is ‘able to choose’?)
A longer term look at gold.
A possible downside target could be 1,750 ish.
Great post by Peter Brandt Silver is a cross dresser!
References: Silver, seasonality, SIFO, BASENS comparison, SLW
Sep 12: Long GLD OCT 175 puts at 6.75. Long SLV OCT 39 puts for 2.10.
Sept 12: sold the GLD puts for +4%. There was little leverage in them (I bought them poorly which did not help). It seems better to deploy the money in a different way. I don’t pay much attention to how “expensive” options are. I might look into that. I was also short December gold. That ended up at +8%. I’m impressed gold did not go lower. And SLW is recovering well. In fact too well. Sold the SLV puts for +9%. This whole precious metals correction might just end up being sideways consolidation. And every central bank is printing like crazy.
Game plan: If stocks gap down and start to rise above yesterday’s lows, or open up and keep going up, sell. Otherwise hold.
I usually don’t buy puts near the end of a big down day, but there seemed to be a good chance of at least temporary follow through.
– Today’s bar broke out and then failed and undercut yesterday’s almost hammer low.
– RSI > 70 on monthly timeframe. Also > 70 on the weekly a few months ago (often there is a lag). Those alone suggest a trip to the weekly magenta EMA at some point.
+ On both these charts, if prices really are headed down, the weekly CCI magenta line will get below -100 and price will could drop 15-20 points in a week. That reward is why I took the risk.
– But since the options expire soon, price has to move down quickly or it’s time to be out.
– Both stocks did not have huge volume today. So possibly they declined not so much due to selling, but a lack of buying?? I’m hoping the selling kicks in soon 🙂
June 4: Closed both positions on Thursday when LULU rose quickly intraday. And APKT was not even going down. Basically I shorted at the incorrect time as mentioned in this update.
(Sorry for the late notice, had to be out rapidly this morning. More commentary later.)
May 17: Sold puts since stock was bouncing well off the 10 EMA. +3%
(Sorry for the late notice, had to be out rapidly this morning.)
+ The purpose of the very short term puts are if the stock starts to decline rapidly, the puts can go up in value 10 times. So even if the timing is off 5 tries in a row, the 6th or 7th can make the whole thing worth while.
– NR7 doji bar after a good run up.
– RSI is > 70 on all 3 major time frames.
May 17: Sold everything because price did not drop through the 10 EMA. +29% with the June puts and +50% on the May puts.
Update: sold for 8.10. +1% Looks like price will bounce a bit?
Price had a chance to drop and didn’t. That’s certainly not crazy bearish.
Update: Bought again at 8.15. The stock just kept looking weak. I don’t expect more than a drop to 325. Since price is near a gap area and a trend line goes through that gap, I wonder if the stock could gap down a few points on Monday??
– Weekly CCI has a long way to fall if it want’s too.
-Monthly CCI is declining.
+ Daily CCI is quite oversold.
May 17: Seems like things will bounce. Took partial profit, then sold the rest a few minutes later. +58%.
Bought Feb 240 puts for $2.75.
Exit if price closes above 34 EMA.
I have no idea if this is the start of a trend down in general.
Of the 23 times $SPX has gone at least 30 days w/o a 1% drop, coming off a 52-week high, it was higher 3 days later 74% of the time. — Tweeted Jason Goepfert of sentimentrader.com today.
But I do expect the very over bought stocks to roll over a bit at some point. FFIV is down 22% after the close. I keep attempting to catch some of these but have so far not. Let’s try again:
– Book value / share -18. Huh??
– Both insiders and institutions have been selling.
– Was an IBD Top Stock and now isn’t.
– 6 distribution days in the past 4 weeks.
+/- Sitting on the long term uptrend line. If price drops below that it should go to the 170 EMA which is about 230. So I picked a put half way to that possible target.
– The weekly RSI is > 70 which can mean a reversion to the 170 EMA.
– The monthly RSI > 70 which can mean a reversion to the lower weekly Bollinger Band at about 210.
– The 34 EMA is trending down. Another chance to short is if price goes up and kisses the EMA from below.
Jan 28: Price closed about the 34 EMA so got out at $0.81 -71%