Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

August 12, 2013

JO – Buy Coffee (update 2 August 21 – 41%)

Filed under: -25 to -49%, Long Calls, Long Stock — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:30 pm

Buy DEC 25 calls for < 2.30.
Stop loss 1.10 ish.

Buy stop shares at about 26.05.
Stop loss 23.93

+ Gann Global has a nice video out advising long coffee suggesting a minimum 30% rise.
Long term coffee chart.

KC weekly cot august 12 2013

JO weekly aug 12 3013

+ All daily CCI’s are pointing up.
+ Today was a NR7 on the ETF sitting right on support.

JO daily august 12 2013

Update 1 August 13
Bought call for 1.85.

Update 2 August 21
Closing position at 1.10. Price did not break up, it continued with the main trend.

January 17, 2013

SLW – Looking to buy on a stop due to price breaking above down trend line. -8% (update1, Feb 17)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Stock — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:18 pm

+ Medium term RSI now above a long term RSI that seems to be rising.
+ Multiple indications of silver shortages.
+ January us mint silver eagle sales pass 6 million, mint suspends sales, states eagles are sold out!!
+ fed/gov keeps printing money.
+ price broke over the down trend line and had a little rest on near term EMA support.

Buy stop near todays high.
Stop loss around 3.75.

SLW daily jan 17 2013

Update 1 Feb 17
Stopped out even with a fairly wide stop loss near the trading range low. Note the updated down trend line.
SLW daily feb 17 2013

October 13, 2012

WPRT – Long if buy stop triggered. -5% (update 1, Oct 21)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Stock — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:01 am

Caterpillar… soon, they’ll be powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG)… To expedite LNG-powered product development, Caterpillar has teamed up with LNG-engine-maker Westport Innovations (WPRT)… Here’s what Frank Curzio wrote about Westport…

Sales are expected to grow north of 50% annually over the next five years. The company projects profitability by 2014. But that could happen sooner as more trucking fleets save millions of dollars a year in fuel costs by switching their engines over to natural gas.

+ Primarily liking the RSI configuration.
+ Declining volume this past week.
+ Tight stop loss. (I’m getting done with loose stop losses.)

Update October 1: Stopped out -5%. The possible short term inflection point resolved downward. Now the shorter EMA’s are firmly heading down.

October 3, 2012

ANIK – buy stop about 15.32 -11% (update 1)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Stock — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:18 pm

Stop loss is about 13.65. I’m using a wide stop loss initially, but will likely tighten it up quickly and take profits too soon.

+ From IBD’s 85-85 list.
+ Low float of 10.7 million.
+ Insiders own 18%.

Update 1 October 21: Stopped out. -11%. The experiment with wide stops is officially over 🙂

September 24, 2012

CRUS: Buy stop with limit. +39% (update 4, Sep 24)

Filed under: +26 to +50%, Long Stock — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:00 pm

Buy stop about 28.42, limit of about 28.60. Definitely using a limit due to possible gap over the down trend line.
Stop loss about 26.70.
Possibly buy Sept 27 calls for about 5.20.

Daily:
+ Decent up volume the past 2 weeks.
+ Rising medium term RSI.
+ 15% of shares are short.

Weekly:
+ Recent 3 weeks could just be a test of the past February 2011 high.
– Midterm RSI pointing down.
– Recent consistant up volume, but not like 2010.
+ Not a super extended stock
– The possible correction might need some more time.

So, if the buy stop is triggered, price better rise quickly or it’s time to get out.

Update July 28: In at 28.42. Stop loss moved up to about 27.35.

Update July 30: Stock is up about 23% after hours. Will very likely sell half near the open.

Update July 31: Sold half for +27%. Stop loss on the other half at 30.30 ish.

Update August 23, 2012: Moving stop loss up to about 38.70.

Update Sep 1: About 15% of float is short! Opps! Why do people short stocks hitting new all time highs? Maybe because the CRUS insiders are selling a fair amount in August? But still, why not wait for momentum to flag?

Update September 7: Moving stop loss up to about 40.35.

Update September 24: Stopped out +51%. (27 + 51) / 2 = + +39% overall.

September 19, 2012

ACOM – Trying long again -8% (update 2, Oct 22)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Stock, Mistakes — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:38 pm

+ Weekly has a large channel.
– Daily has price trading below the red up trend line.

Buy stop around 31.50.
Stop loss around 28.90

Related:
+ ACOM and DVA: long if buy stops triggered. +1%, -3%

Update 1, October 11: I think this was a bad trade — I was trying too hard and too bullish with thinking that with every central bank in the solar system printing, everything will go up. Likely true, but it will take time. Few seem to understand this. Another lesson in “trade the bars, not my stary eyes”. Price is at support — almost time for another try at long, but the NYSI is trending down.

Update 2, October 22: Just to come full circle…

September 14, 2012

ACOM and DVA: long if buy stops triggered. +1%, -3% (update 4, Sept 14)

Filed under: +0 to +5%, -0 to -4%, Long Stock — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:30 pm

August 30, 2012
This indicator suggests tomorrow is a low risk time to got long stocks for a short term bounce.

But since the Summation Index is toppy, use tight stops and get out too soon.

ACOM
+ An NR8 even though the broad market had a down day.
+ Short term RSI crossed over medium term RSI.
– Medium term RSI still heading down.
+ – Depending on the source 17 (finviz)30 (yahoo)% of float is short.
EDIT: NASDAQ indicates a short ratio of about 16 days to cover as of August 15.

So buy on a stop around 31 with a stop loss around 30.45.

DVA
+ Price could have dropped a lot today, but didn’t.
– A fair amount of red volume bars.

Buy stop around 97.37. Stop loss around 95.45.

Update 1, September 1: Long ACOM at about 31.02 and DVA at 97.40.
– Neither stock went up much at all.
– Low volume on both stocks even though stocks in general had decent volume.

Update 2, September 5: Moving DVA stop to around 98.15.

Update 3, September 11: Stopped out yesterday at about 98.10. +1%.

Price is kind of weak:
– The spike up 4 days ago saw price close in the lower half. (Should have sold half right then.)
– Filled gap yet kept going down.
– Tested short term EMA (yellow) and is, so far, under the EMA.
– Finally bounced, so far, off the minor down trend line.
– Short term RSI (yellow) has some more room to decline.

Update 4, September 14: Stopped out of ACOM for a -3% loss.

June 25, 2012

GNC – Buy on a stop (update 3, July 22) -2%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, Long Stock — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:10 pm

+ 13% of float is short.
+ Past 2 months look like a large bull flag.
+ NR7 today.
+ Pretty good volume 1 day back.
– Medium term RSI flat, but not rising.

Update June 27: Move stop to break even.
Update June 27: Will likely exit unless price moves up tomorrow. Stocks in general were up and GNC “was” up, but then retreated. Not exactly positive. We will see what tomorrow looks like.

Update July 22: I got out the next day on weak prices @ -2%. I should have left the original stop alone. On the other hand, keeping tight stops helps avoid a CMG situation (currently would be a 30% loss if “buy and hold”), and it’s a momo stock. If it’s not going up on at least ok volume, why be in it? And as Raymond Merriman points out:

Mercury retrograde. It just reinforces our rule under Mercury retrograde: take profits too soon (i.e. take profits quickly, like every 1-4 days, and don’t wait for your price target to get hit and don’t expect a break of resistance to be a buy signal or a break of support to be a sell signal. It is just as likely to be a fake out.

Update July 22 at night: The more I look at this the more it seems like price wants to go lower.
– Price deeply backtested the breakout point twice now.
– Only 2 up volume days.

If there was not a big gap down, one low risk trade could be shorting at Fridays low with a stop at Friday’s high. If not much happens, cover quickly in a day or 2. 20% of float is short.

CMG – Buy on a stop -2%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, Long Stock — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:49 pm

+ Doji bar today.
+ Low volume when price was down and stocks general volume wasn’t down commensurately.
+ All 3 RSI’s rising.
+ Low float of 31 million.
– PE of 57.

Better to have tight stops on momo’s. Keeping a 2% loss from being a 7% loss is similar to giving yourself 2 more tries to enter a profitable trade.

Update July 22: If this was a buy and hold trade, it would be down 30% right now.

March 30, 2011

Sold CNQ put (paper trade) (update May 15) +100% (put), -17% (stock)

Filed under: +76 to +100%, -05 to -24%, Long Stock, Mistakes, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:58 pm

Sold April 49 put for 0.50 yesterday when price was about 48.53.

+ Price opened below yesterdays low, tagged the 34 ema and rose a fair amount.
+ From the IBD big cap 20.
+ Stock is in an uptrend.
– Volume is pretty weak. THe very conservative might wish to cover.

May 15: No more paper trades. I was deluding myself that I was not solely focused on silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. Using Fridays low as the exit point for getting out of the stock.

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