Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 19, 2012

ACOM – Trying long again -8% (update 2, Oct 22)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Stock, Mistakes — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:38 pm

+ Weekly has a large channel.
– Daily has price trading below the red up trend line.

Buy stop around 31.50.
Stop loss around 28.90

Related:
+ ACOM and DVA: long if buy stops triggered. +1%, -3%

Update 1, October 11: I think this was a bad trade — I was trying too hard and too bullish with thinking that with every central bank in the solar system printing, everything will go up. Likely true, but it will take time. Few seem to understand this. Another lesson in “trade the bars, not my stary eyes”. Price is at support — almost time for another try at long, but the NYSI is trending down.

Update 2, October 22: Just to come full circle…

September 9, 2012

Silver and gold – Long if a buy stop triggers near yesterday’s highs. +103% +130% (update 7, Oct 21)

Filed under: +Over +101%, Futures Trades, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:00 pm

August 8
First, you might like to read Peter Brandt’s Should the inevitable chart breakout in precious metals be trusted?

Tight stop loss a bit below yesterday’s low.

References:
+ Silver, looking to go long SIZ12 on a stop

Update August 9 2012: In gold at 1619.5 (margin $9,100) Edit: Stop loss around 1593. Lowering silver buy stop to 28.27 ish.

Update August 20 2012: Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46. Will update past stopped out positions later.

Update August 22 2012: Stopped out of gold long at 1593. -30%. Long SIZ12 at 28.27. Stop loss now at 28.38. I should have just bought long dated calls in the first place.

This chart highlights a favored set up of a buy stop on a narrow range 7 bar with support nearby.

Bean oil just showcased another set up.

Update 4, September 9:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, currently 5.15.
Long SIZ12 at 28.27, currently 33.69. Stop loss at about 31.80 because the minor test of 32 held.

Related
+ Silver: 4 reasons to be long
+ The obvious and GARGANTUAN silver opportunity

Update 5, September 30:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, currently 5.7.
Long SIZ12 at 28.27, currently 34.40. Stop loss at about 32.25.

Update 6, October 3:
Attempting to add another long silver position near a 34.91 buy stop. Stop loss is a little loose at 34.15 ish. Actually I decided to make a new post: Silver – attempting to add to longs.

Update 7, October 21:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, stopped out at 3.4. +130%
Long SIZ12 from 28.27, stopped out near 32.25. +103%
I paid tooooo close attention to “news” instead of bars and so left too much on the table. That always costs a lot!

July 25, 2012

Silver, looking to go long SIZ12 on a stop (update 1, July 30) -7%

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Futures Trades, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:56 am

Buy stop near 27.65.
Stop loss around 26.50.
Bought a December 40 call 2 days ago for 0.1234. For record keeping, lets say the cost was 0.15, a bit above the current ask.

+ Down trend line has been broken with a consolidation sitting on top of it.
+ Long term RSI turning up.
– Short and mid term EMA’s pointing down.
– Bearish(?) rising wedge.

Update July 26 2012: Moved stop loss to about 27.25. Pretty weak “breakout” so far.

Update July 30 2012: Moving stop up to 27.35 ish.
– Volume not great.
+ RSI’s all pointing up and not over extended.

Update August 1: Stop hit -7%. I don’t think I handled this well. Because price was not really accelerating up, it would be better to have at least a break even stop since if price came back into the channel, it would likely go rather deeply into it.

(Edit: opps posted the September chart. Here is the December chart).

April 28, 2011

Long SLW, (update 3: May 15) +0% -100%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, -75 to -99%, -Below -100%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:23 am

June 45 calls at average price of 2.15.
June 70 calls average price of 0.082.

Stop loss is price closing below this morning’s low.

The MRCI monthly silver chart is finally starting to look a bit extended.

+ Silver Warehouse Shenanigans or the Real Deal? Scroll down for the newer info and some historical perspective.
+ James Turk – The Waterfall Decline in the US Dollar Has Begun If true, far out of the money options might pay off well.
+ Mr Ferguson is suggesting a metal rise into mid next week followed by a dip into May 12 to 20 timeframe.

3 90% silver dies are currently worth $10.65.

Just speculation: At this point Mr. Bernanke would have to resign or be fired to stop the metal train.

EDIT: Sold the June 45s for 2.16. Don’t want to get caught in a down draft: SLW is still weak and I expect it to be weak until silver is above 50. Interestingly, the 70 calls are bid 9, ask 10. These are more long term speculations that I won’t trade hopefully for a while.

Now it’s best to wait until the medium term CCI looks to be bottoming. Price could easily go to the magenta 170 EMA near 41.

April 29: The trendline has been broken to the upside. Time to wait for a backtest. Those June 45 calls are now trading for 1.80, down -16%.

May 15: I was greedy regarding silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. Just going to assume the out of the money in-a-galexy-far-away option will be worthless.

April 14, 2011

Long SLW June 47 calls at 2.30 and general silver update +3%, -48%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, -25 to -49%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:37 pm

I really wanted to wait until tomorrow’s option expiration. But Xiphos Trading’s sentiment summed up the situation:

In the precious metals almost everyone is PETRIFIED of the downside (me too!) but the upside risk perception seems to be unvalued to me.

Not only was the price of silver was holding strong and rising as stocks were nearing the close, but the silver correction was very, very shallow compared to other silver corrections and compared to gold, crude, stocks, etc. It’s just silly not to be long most of the time.

I chose not to buy any far out of the money calls. They are all very expensive and too stressful to hold. 47’s are enough leverage. Typically I would prefer 42’s or 43’s when price is at 43.

In this case I figure that if SLW gaps open and does not hold the gap, the options can be sold. If SLW opens weak, sell for a small loss.

My take on CDE -7% and PAAS about -8% today from the news of the Bolivian gov wanting Bolivian silver? Less supply the public can buy via stocks. People are saying that is silver is up so much today. If that was true, then why is gold up a fair amount too??

Look how popular silver is getting. This snap shot was taken near the COMEX close. I cheery picked it — it’s more a representation at the extreme end of things. But still, silver is a small market compared to gold. Supposedly 🙂

The big picture suggests to me that silver can rise quickly for at least a few more weeks. Using the ratio (4.75) of the lead in vs. the rise to about $50/oz from the first consolidation, this recent rise would go to about $70/oz.

References
+ If March 1980 silver is similar to the current price pattern, a time based stop loss can be rather tight

April 15: Sold at the open +3%. Will probably buy again if price rises above the open, or near the end of the session, or the 60 min CCI declines and makes a bottom. The point is to avoid a big dip. I am happy to buy back in at a higher price.

Back in at 2.55. Started trading above the open price, already had a over 2 million shares traded and it seemed like there were a lot of buyers.

April 18: Opps, that was expensive. Out at -48%. Should have sold when the nascent breakout failed on Friday. And another clue was Friday closed low in the daily range. I choose to get out completely rather than wait and see if price recovers — after all, this is a buy zone. But it is more important for me to get centered again and sit with what caused the mistake.

March 30, 2011

Sold CNQ put (paper trade) (update May 15) +100% (put), -17% (stock)

Filed under: +76 to +100%, -05 to -24%, Long Stock, Mistakes, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:58 pm

Sold April 49 put for 0.50 yesterday when price was about 48.53.

+ Price opened below yesterdays low, tagged the 34 ema and rose a fair amount.
+ From the IBD big cap 20.
+ Stock is in an uptrend.
– Volume is pretty weak. THe very conservative might wish to cover.

May 15: No more paper trades. I was deluding myself that I was not solely focused on silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. Using Fridays low as the exit point for getting out of the stock.

March 3, 2011

SLW – Part 2 of the silver and SLW campaign -36%, +41%, -3%

Filed under: +26 to +50%, -0 to -4%, -25 to -49%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:29 pm

Part 1: SLW – long short term and long term calls -4%, +60%, +65%, -15%, +53%

Open positions:
June 60 calls for 0.31.
June 45 calls for 4.35.
July silver 60 calls for 0.042.

Earnings to be reported after the close. If you sell a product for $30 that cost you $4 and you only have 23 employees, earnings might be okay — except for things that come up like HL’s skeletons.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Upside targets of around 45.12 and 46.67 provided by Rick Ackerman’s method. If price open’s gap up it might be time to sell the 45 calls? If price opens lower with a gap – that will be an interesting decision.

+ SLW has a good backtest on the December high.
+ At all time highs with good fundamentals.
+ Volume keeps rising.

References
+ The obvious and GARGANTUAN silver opportunity
+ Surveying the playing field: fortunes can be made or lost in the next month or so, and sent to PCH

March 5: Brian Hunt’s Market Notes showcases SLW.

Our friend Jeff Clark of Casey Research has commented that Silver Wheaton is such a terrific silver play, we can use it to judge the severity of a precious metals mania. If gold and silver enter a mania phase, Silver Wheaton will be the stock magazine publishers throw on their covers… it will be the “must own” stock discussed at cocktail parties… and folks will talk about Silver Wheaton’s royalty stream like they talked about Cisco’s networking sales back in 1999.

That is what I am betting on.

March 8: Steve Sjuggerud on SLW: Up 40% in Seven Weeks, Still Room to Double

SLW has a fair number of gaps, and I did not sell this one. Usually when a move is rather extended to the upside and there is a gap on the open, it’s a good time to sell. But not always, especially if price is not extended. I did not sell at point 10 because:
+ I want to keep the position despite daily price movements, unless they are very bearish. (Yesterdays bar did not even take out the low of the bar before it. Compare that to point 1 and 2. Point 4 is a little different because it might have received support from the 10 ema.)
+ Price is not extended compared to the the old high at point 2. (definitely extended compared to the recent bottom mid February.)
+ The 2011 backwardation has been following 2008 closely. That implies price can go up for at least 5 more days with minor corrections.

The other reason I want to hold onto the position is silver really could explode up at any time. Among other things, the stream of rumors about JPM offering cash premiums to not take delivery from the COMEX is continuous. Mr Chapman, about 1.5 minutes in, is saying premiums were at 80%. IF true that puts the real price of silver at around 65 frn’s/oz. Then add backwardation, the lack of Silver Maples, funky warehouse stats, etc, etc… One could sell the gap and be chasing price big time to get back in. Maybe that is a good plan? If every major gap was sold and bought back 1-2 days later, that would probably cover the loss of having to chase price. But I’m not at the computer all the time. So I don’t want the stress.

Note that usually when price gaps up, it just heads down. None of this bouncing back stuff after 10 minutes. If silver really is bullish, SLW could open up, and just start accelerating up 15% in a short amount of time.

March 10: Sold June 45 calls -36%. Will be updating the gap info above and point out the psychological blind spot. In summary, the account just gave away 5 points. The rational for not selling the gap up was having to buy back at a higher price. If if I that happened, would it take 5 points to do it? Probably not. I don’t have good enough rules for dealing with gaps. Will update this weekend.

March 11: Was doing other things so missed the gap down open. Will wait for a pullback on the 60 min chart. I was thinking last due to the big gap, it might take a few days to get a good bottom in. Nope!

SLW: Dividends could rise to as much as 50% of cash flow

March 23: Long June 46 (2.22) and 65 (0.23) calls 4 days ago. The 65 calls are a bet on a big price run up and will have to be closed if price starts to stall out. I think they were expensive and expire rather soon considering how out of the money they are. But, if silver really starts to run, it’s much better to have exposure to a large number of shares rather than just exposure. The 46 calls were rather out of the money considering what I normally like to do (at the money, or one strike out of the money), but they are already rather profitable.

I sold 3/4 of the June 60 calls (+25%) in order to avoid riding a drop down to 33-36. I doubt that would have happened (famous last words), but I would rather reenter than sit through a major drawdown “hoping”. I obviously was not trading that correction well 🙂 And SLW is still very overbought on a monthly time frame. Really need to learn to sell large gaps up when price is extended.

I still entertain the notion that SLW will be the biggest momo stock ever.

April 14: Sold all the June 60 calls +58% on Tuesday since price looked to go lower. So the average is +41%. I can’t easily find what I sold the June 46 calls for, but it was a profit. But I will drop it since I got into June 47’s that I did not list here (so I don’t keep official track) that I sold in a debacle at a loss. Sold the June 65’s at -3%. That was silly. Too expensive, too far away, and not enough time until expiration.

I did not really preform profitably with the trades in this post. This is one reason I got flat on almost everything on Tuesday.

February 14, 2011

Long SA since price looks to be breaking out of a 6 month channel (updated May 15) -78%

Filed under: -75 to -99%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:28 am

Bought May 34 calls at 1.80. Okay to buy out of the money calls since if price breaks out, it could make it to 37.

+ Price had a decent tentative breakout on okay volume.
+ EMA’s all trending up.
+ Monthly and weekly CCI’s moving up.
– Daily CCI not very low, but not expected if a true breakout.
– No follow through volume.
+ Float is only 36 million shares.
+ 14% of shares are shorted.
+ The short ratio is over 12. That’s a fair number of days.

Feb 23: Everything seems fine. Especially like the short ratio being 12.6 with a low float.

Xiphos Trading’s monthly SA chart, “Largest % of float short of any gold/silver miner of size”.

May 15: I was greedy regarding silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. Made a mistake of not taking partial profit and then a few weeks later “hoping.” Out at 0.40 (I think).

CIS, long calls, correction might be over -13%

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:32 am

Long June 22.5 calls for 3.00. The buy stop would be at yesterday’s high.

+ 4 down days in a row.
+ A+B =C+D providing support. (orange circle)
+ The last 2 days had long lower shadows.
+ Daily CCI is just about ready to cross above weekly CCI.
– Weekly CCI is trending down, but is low and starting to flatten out.
+ 32 million shares float.

Experimenting with timing lines. They seem to identify changes in trend.

Feb 15: If this is not the bottom, the next target is around 18.75. Will sell calls fast if that looks to be happening.

Feb 22: Sold calls on Friday -13% to just focus on silver and this trade was not working out. I would have likely held on to at least this morning if silver focus had not prompted me to take action. The whole trade is a mistake since I normally wait for price action to confirm a move, not buy in anticipation. I can anticipate to zero. Fortunately this was a small position anyway, and the gains in winners like SLW dwarf mistakes like this.

– And if price is testing the 100% too many times, it’s likely to go through. Letting greedy thought be a focus results in loses.

February 11, 2011

SLW – long short term and long term calls -4%, +60%, +65%, -15% +53% (part 1)

Filed under: +51 to +75%, -0 to -4%, -05 to -24%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:49 am

Long March 36 calls at 1.53, and June 60 calls at 0.25.

I had a dream this morning that I was flying from Hawaii. I arrived in time but there were a lot of number on my pre boarding ticket, and it seemed none of them were being called. Not a big deal, I did make it to the counter and got a ticket and started scampering to the plane. I was not rushing — what’s the worst that can happen? Stay another day in Hawaii? But I was scampering.

Translation: While you are overtrading, the plane is taking off. True.

Silver
+ Instead of price dropping, it seems to have been waiting for the ema’s to catch up.
+ EMA’s all pointing up.
+ Price rose past the 3 peaks to the left easily. If I have it correctly, Rick Ackerman says that is bullish.
– The monthly CCI is pointed down. Not ideal — was the correction enough?
+ Fundamentally, silver is crazy bullish.

SLW
+ Price nestled into the ema’s.
– Overall, I would prefer SLW leading silver. But what do I know.
+ Fundamentally, SLW is even more crazy bullish than silver (If silver does not go down much over the next few months).

Feb 14: Not to be overtrading or anything, but buying Mar calls was a mistake. In the bustle to open the positions, I was not centered and thought March was further away (Isn’t it still January?!?!?). Anyway, sold the March calls -4% and bought June 36 calls at 3.66. I feel much better now. The position is bigger than the normal size and it is much better to make it right, than stress about the timing. “The first loss is the best loss”.

Feb 19: Sold the June 36 calls for 5.90 ish +60% because they were $3 in the money. Bought June 39 calls at about 4.41. I did this to increase the number of options. If price really is explosive, more options are better than fewer. But the options are quite expensive right now so I picked an at-the-money strike. The June 60 calls purchased at about 0.28 are trading for 0.56. (I foolishly exited these at break even of 0.22 and bought back in.) I also bought a few highly speculative silver July 60 calls at 0.042.

A number of things were done correctly: Much more than one position is being traded. So on the rollover 10% of the ~:windfall” profit was removed from the account. The rollover also happened after 11:00 PCT when prices tend to rest.

Rick Ackerman is suggesting a target of 45.01. Chart

Update of Why I prefer SLW to CDE, HL, PAAS, SSRI and silver:

Xiphos Trading “FWIW talked to my bro-in-law at GS today, said they covered half their short vega (VOL) last week. Meltup has trading desk alarmed.”

References
+ Silver backwardation growing even as price rises: speculative targets based on 2008 LBMA backwardation

Feb 21: SLW might open quite high tomorrow. Time to sell and buy back betting the gap will close? I don’t know. I was going to write out a few thoughts I had on this, but it’s time for bed. I will likely do nothing unless SLW really starts dropping. This is not the time to over trade or get cute. Many eyes might now be focusing on silver and the silver stocks. There are only a handful and SLW might open around 43 drop for 15 minutes to close the gap at the December high of 32.34 then be at 45 2 minutes later. All with high volatility which might mean large enough spreads such that it would be challenging to even profit on a 2% drop. Plus the stress of it all.

Just like Feb 19th, if it’s time to roll contracts up a few strikes, I will do it later in the trading day.

Feb 23: Yesterday I did sell half the in the money calls and bought June 43 calls for 3.86. Thoughts were thus:
+ Because silver price “should” keep going up for at least 20% over the next 2 weeks, I want to keep the position.
+ But it would be nice to sell the big gap up unless it takes off to the upside.
+ So I sold half the position as prices was declining and bought the 43 calls.
+ Although I could have waited and bought much lower toward the end of the day, the object was only to roll forward half the contracts and hopefully make back the spread, which happened 🙂
+ If there was a down draft I would wait until that was over. But I would buy at the end of the day almost for sure so that I kept the position.

SLW has had much, much more volume compared to it’s past and compared to any other major silver stock. Since price is going up, that seems quite bullish. SLW’s price relative strength the past 5 days:

Feb 24: Rolled the other half of June 39 calls to June 43 call during the morning weakness. +70%. (Average of whole position = +65%)
– Gold has been up 7 days in a row.
– Silver and SLW are way above the 10 EMA. On the break down below 39.65 all June 34 calls were sold -15%.
– If price closes below yesterdays low, that could mean dropping probably tomorrow too.
– There is also the unfilled gap around 37.

– Silver broke out to 30 year new highs and is could back test.

The June 60 calls have only been added to in dribs and drabs.

The intention is to buy when SLW calls again when when price gets to 36-37, or rises above today’s high.

Feb 25: I am changing my mind. Possibly buy calls the morning weakness? Silver bounced hard from it’s backtest of the 10 ema. Hmm… Ideally, it would be nice to see SLW leading silver stocks, and silver leading gold. And if SLW is very strong, the gaps don’t need to be filled.

Feb 26: Long June 43 calls at 3.25. So far I am pleased with this trade. Price could have opened down and kept going for $2. Part of the reason the calls were entered was the strength of the magenta CCI. It suggested that price would have follow through even if timing is off. And the yellow CCI was turing up again. And the longer term blue CCI looked to be bottoming.

Which is nice because price did turn right down 🙂

It would have be best if price closed above yesterday’s high, but this might be good enough.

Time to post the 5 day comparison chart again: SLW is almost double everything else.

March 2: I will put in the numbers tomorrow. Raymond Merriman’s silver index is suggesting a +2% reversal. I am not sure, but I think that about 10% of the time it turns out to be an acceleration. If a reversal, might have to take action. SLW’s earnings are tomorrow which makes things interesting.

March 3: Sold June 43 calls for 4.99 +53%. Bought June 45 calls for 4.35. This is the end of part 1. the June 45, June 60, and July silver 60 calls, will be followed on: SLW – Part 2 of the silver campaign

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