Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

October 25, 2012

INTC – sell put due to low RSI’s.

Filed under: +Over +101%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:36 am

Sold Nov 22’s for $81.

In a way, this current trade, and the still open INTC – sell Sep 26 put for $50 trade is a Martingale strategy. As long as INTC doesn’t go bankrupt, the series of INTC short puts should be profitable, someday. Assuming no mistakes… Assuming no over leveraging.

+ Dividend of 4.2%.

Update April 7, 2014
I did not keep track of this position. But anyway, now that price is finally above the put strike prices, it’s profitable if one kept rolling over the puts, and or, sold calls on stock that was put to the account (while collecting up to 2 dividends of 0.225 USD/share).

INTC weekely april 7 2014

September 18, 2012

INTC – sell Sep 26 put for $50 (update 2, Sep 18)

Filed under: +Over +101%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:00 am

August 8, 2012
+ Looks like price is in a small back test of a breakout.
+ EMA’s heading up.

Update 1, Aug 31 2012: The put currently costs $130.

Look how the trend line has changed over time.

New trend line.

If price rises a day or 2 more, the lower trend line will change also.

Update September 18 2012: Going to roll over the puts. Buy back the Sep 26 put for $274, sell the Oct 26 put for $273.

50 – 274 + 273 = 49

Update April 7, 2014
I did not keep track of this position. But anyway, now that price is finally above the put strike prices, it’s profitable if one kept rolling over the puts, and or, sold calls on stock that was put to the account (while collecting up to 2 dividends of 0.225 USD/share).

INTC weekely april 7 2014

September 14, 2012

FCX (copper): looking to go long due to favorable COT (update 4, Oct 21)

Filed under: +Over +101%, Long Calls, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:50 am

September 1, 2012
A blurb and background (with a great chart!) from Brett Eversole

The big news sources enjoyed reporting that China’s copper imports fell 17.5% between May and June. What they didn’t tell you is that June imports were up 24% over the previous year. And July imports were up again.

Because “large traders” are near historic short levels, Mr. Eversole suggests that FCX could rise over 100% in the next 14 months.

FCX trades for Monday:
Long NOV 35 calls for about $285. (A normal strategy.)
Short SEP 34 puts for about $40. (Due to commercial buying, downside is likely limited.)
Long Jan 2012 2014 45 calls for about $275. (If the “target” price and time is 60 in a year, 45 is half way between 30 and 60. I usually vastly favor trend following over “targets”, but this is very defined. Let’s see what happens.)

+ Solid up volume days in the past 2 months with declining down volume.
+ RSI’s are fine.
+ Broke and tested the near term down trend line. Next trend line hurdle is associated with the January 2011 top.
– Missed the low risk entry on Friday.
– The seasonals and historic cycles are unclear to me.

Notice FCX has had 2 dips toward the down trend line. HG has only had one. Supposedly the stock leading the commodity is bullish for both.

Related:
+ Update on acquiring nickels. Currently worth 7.27 cents (Now 4.8 cents) Seriously, who could not be saving nickels??? KISS!
+ Waiting for a bounce setup in copper near 3.23.

Update 1, September 4: Xiphos Trading’s copper chart

Long NOV 35 calls for about $255.
Short SEP 34 puts for $50.
Long Jan 2014 45 calls for about $260.

Update 2, September 7: Peter L Brandt Copper has a history with the compound fulcrum pattern

Long NOV 35 calls for about $255. Now $505.
Short SEP 34 puts for $50. Now $5.
Long Jan 2014 45 calls for about $260. Now $385.

Update 3, September 8: Trend lines matter.

Update 4, September 14: Taking partial profit
Long NOV 35 calls for about $255. Now $810. +217%.
Short SEP 34 puts for $50. Now $1. Doing nothing.
Long Jan 2014 45 calls for about $260. Now $560. +115%.

Update 4, October 21: Trade still preforming well.
Long NOV 35 calls for about $255. Now $630.
Short SEP 34 puts for $50. Expired worthless. +100%
Long Jan 2014 45 calls for about $260. Now $440.

Update September 20 2013
I lost track of things 🙂

September 9, 2012

Silver and gold – Long if a buy stop triggers near yesterday’s highs. +103% +130% (update 7, Oct 21)

Filed under: +Over +101%, Futures Trades, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:00 pm

August 8
First, you might like to read Peter Brandt’s Should the inevitable chart breakout in precious metals be trusted?

Tight stop loss a bit below yesterday’s low.

References:
+ Silver, looking to go long SIZ12 on a stop

Update August 9 2012: In gold at 1619.5 (margin $9,100) Edit: Stop loss around 1593. Lowering silver buy stop to 28.27 ish.

Update August 20 2012: Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46. Will update past stopped out positions later.

Update August 22 2012: Stopped out of gold long at 1593. -30%. Long SIZ12 at 28.27. Stop loss now at 28.38. I should have just bought long dated calls in the first place.

This chart highlights a favored set up of a buy stop on a narrow range 7 bar with support nearby.

Bean oil just showcased another set up.

Update 4, September 9:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, currently 5.15.
Long SIZ12 at 28.27, currently 33.69. Stop loss at about 31.80 because the minor test of 32 held.

Related
+ Silver: 4 reasons to be long
+ The obvious and GARGANTUAN silver opportunity

Update 5, September 30:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, currently 5.7.
Long SIZ12 at 28.27, currently 34.40. Stop loss at about 32.25.

Update 6, October 3:
Attempting to add another long silver position near a 34.91 buy stop. Stop loss is a little loose at 34.15 ish. Actually I decided to make a new post: Silver – attempting to add to longs.

Update 7, October 21:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, stopped out at 3.4. +130%
Long SIZ12 from 28.27, stopped out near 32.25. +103%
I paid tooooo close attention to “news” instead of bars and so left too much on the table. That always costs a lot!

January 26, 2011

Sell ECA puts (+90%) on backtest of triangle breakout, partial profit on calls +116%

Filed under: +76 to +100%, +Over +101%, Favorite Posts, Long Calls, Mistakes, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:00 pm

Sold ECA FEB 28 puts for $68 per contract.

– 3 distribution days the last week.
+ Tested the 34 EMA twice and closed higher.
+ Rising monthly and weekly CCI’s.
+/- Price is in a triangle and probably won’t close below the lower trend line without at least a bounce.

While looking at the chart I had a feeling I was missing something. I was. Here is the first chart I was looking at:

Here is a better accurate chart:

Drawing correct trend lines is critical. This new line makes the situation more bullish: Price is backtesting a breakout. It’s actaully time to consider buying the stock, or in the money puts, or even calls.

I like how Trader Vic draws them:

In analyzing a trend on the charts, the most useful tool is the trendline. One of the biggest mistakes made by amateurs and professionals alike is inconsistently defining and drawing the trendline. To be useful, the trendline must accurately reflect the definition of the trend. The method I have devised is very simple and very consistent. It fits both the definition of a trend and the inferences drawn from Dow Theory pertaining to the elements of a change in trend… For an uptrend within the period of consideration, draw a line from the lowest low, up and to the highest minor low point preceding the highest high so that the line does not pass though prices between the two low points… While this method is quite simple, it is extremely consistent and very accurate. The slope of this trendline is a close approximation of the slope you would get by doing a linear regression analysis on the price data over the same time period. Unlike other methods, it prevents you from drawing a trendline to suit your purposes — it prevents you from imposing your wish onto the trendline. It also provides the basis to graphically determine when a change of trend has occurred.

UPDATES:
Jan 12th: bought April 30 calls for $1.25 Lessons: Don’t buy calls in the first 30 -60 minutes of trade. It’s called amateur hour for a reason!

Jan 13th: Decided not to take partial profit yet since the move seems rather strong.

Jan 18th: Took partial profit of $2.79 / option for +120%.

Jan 22: According to Rick Ackerman, passing 2 past left peaks (circled) is bullish.

Jan 25: Covered the short puts at $0.07. +90%
Very well might close out the rest of the calls soon.
– Daily RSI > 70 and that rarely happens in this stock. Occasionally price can go up more, but in the data I have, RSI > 70 always lead to a pullback to the 34 EMA (or so).

Jan 28: Sold calls for 2.65 +112%.

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