Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

August 7, 2014

SLW – Time to go long

Filed under: *OPEN TRADES, Long Calls, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:47 am

The SLW : Silver ratio keeps rising, and it looks like a mini breakout is holding.
Short March 2015 27 put @ 2.95
Long March 2015 27 call @ 2.55

No stop loss.

SLW daily AUG 7 2014

Update 1, Jan 20 2015
Well, it was not time to go long after all. Will likely be rolling over the options.

SLW daily 20 jan 2015

July 22, 2013

FXA – Sell put + 82% (update 1, Sep 20)

Filed under: +76 to +100%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:28 am

Sell SEP 90 put for $85.
Buy AUG 88 put for $15, just in case.

+ Commercials are record net long. Doesn’t mean price can’t go lower, but it’s low probability, and significant downside should be limited.

AUD COT weekly july 22 2013

FXA daily july 21 2013

Update September 20:
+ 82% Won’t be adding a protective put in the future. Should have sold it near the initial low, though.

FXA daily sep 202013

October 25, 2012

INTC – sell put due to low RSI’s.

Filed under: +Over +101%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:36 am

Sold Nov 22’s for $81.

In a way, this current trade, and the still open INTC – sell Sep 26 put for $50 trade is a Martingale strategy. As long as INTC doesn’t go bankrupt, the series of INTC short puts should be profitable, someday. Assuming no mistakes… Assuming no over leveraging.

+ Dividend of 4.2%.

Update April 7, 2014
I did not keep track of this position. But anyway, now that price is finally above the put strike prices, it’s profitable if one kept rolling over the puts, and or, sold calls on stock that was put to the account (while collecting up to 2 dividends of 0.225 USD/share).

INTC weekely april 7 2014

September 21, 2012

NGX12 – Selling NOV puts. +91% (update 2, Oct 4)

Filed under: +76 to +100%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:26 am

Selling NOV 2.8 puts for 0.079

Update 1, October 3
+ Natural Gas — Now this is what a bottom looks like

The option is currently worth 0.010. It’s simple to close the position soon since the the bulk of profit is already done.

Update 2, October 4: Officially closed, +91%.
+ An Update on the Biggest Long-Term Trend in the Market Today

September 18, 2012

INTC – sell Sep 26 put for $50 (update 2, Sep 18)

Filed under: +Over +101%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:00 am

August 8, 2012
+ Looks like price is in a small back test of a breakout.
+ EMA’s heading up.

Update 1, Aug 31 2012: The put currently costs $130.

Look how the trend line has changed over time.

New trend line.

If price rises a day or 2 more, the lower trend line will change also.

Update September 18 2012: Going to roll over the puts. Buy back the Sep 26 put for $274, sell the Oct 26 put for $273.

50 – 274 + 273 = 49

Update April 7, 2014
I did not keep track of this position. But anyway, now that price is finally above the put strike prices, it’s profitable if one kept rolling over the puts, and or, sold calls on stock that was put to the account (while collecting up to 2 dividends of 0.225 USD/share).

INTC weekely april 7 2014

September 14, 2012

FCX (copper): looking to go long due to favorable COT (update 4, Oct 21)

Filed under: +Over +101%, Long Calls, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:50 am

September 1, 2012
A blurb and background (with a great chart!) from Brett Eversole

The big news sources enjoyed reporting that China’s copper imports fell 17.5% between May and June. What they didn’t tell you is that June imports were up 24% over the previous year. And July imports were up again.

Because “large traders” are near historic short levels, Mr. Eversole suggests that FCX could rise over 100% in the next 14 months.

FCX trades for Monday:
Long NOV 35 calls for about $285. (A normal strategy.)
Short SEP 34 puts for about $40. (Due to commercial buying, downside is likely limited.)
Long Jan 2012 2014 45 calls for about $275. (If the “target” price and time is 60 in a year, 45 is half way between 30 and 60. I usually vastly favor trend following over “targets”, but this is very defined. Let’s see what happens.)

+ Solid up volume days in the past 2 months with declining down volume.
+ RSI’s are fine.
+ Broke and tested the near term down trend line. Next trend line hurdle is associated with the January 2011 top.
– Missed the low risk entry on Friday.
– The seasonals and historic cycles are unclear to me.

Notice FCX has had 2 dips toward the down trend line. HG has only had one. Supposedly the stock leading the commodity is bullish for both.

Related:
+ Update on acquiring nickels. Currently worth 7.27 cents (Now 4.8 cents) Seriously, who could not be saving nickels??? KISS!
+ Waiting for a bounce setup in copper near 3.23.

Update 1, September 4: Xiphos Trading’s copper chart

Long NOV 35 calls for about $255.
Short SEP 34 puts for $50.
Long Jan 2014 45 calls for about $260.

Update 2, September 7: Peter L Brandt Copper has a history with the compound fulcrum pattern

Long NOV 35 calls for about $255. Now $505.
Short SEP 34 puts for $50. Now $5.
Long Jan 2014 45 calls for about $260. Now $385.

Update 3, September 8: Trend lines matter.

Update 4, September 14: Taking partial profit
Long NOV 35 calls for about $255. Now $810. +217%.
Short SEP 34 puts for $50. Now $1. Doing nothing.
Long Jan 2014 45 calls for about $260. Now $560. +115%.

Update 4, October 21: Trade still preforming well.
Long NOV 35 calls for about $255. Now $630.
Short SEP 34 puts for $50. Expired worthless. +100%
Long Jan 2014 45 calls for about $260. Now $440.

Update September 20 2013
I lost track of things 🙂

May 27, 2011

Long EZPW using a combination of options. Total cost about $10. (update 2, June 1) +14% basis margin

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Long Calls, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:30 am

This is an experiment. Interactive brokers made setting up the option combination easy. Essentially this makes a “free”call until expiration in June. If price has not moved up much, another short term put can be purchased. Margin is around $800 per option combination.
Long JUL 30 call at 2.11. And to pay for it:
Short DEC 30 put at 2.68. And to have near term down side protection:
Long JUN 30 put at 0.47.

I don’t intend on holding this option combination past June. If EZPW just trades near 33, time to look at exiting.

+ IBD Top 50 stock.
+ Price just seems to be in a consolidation.
+ EMA’s are all trending up.

A good reason to be protected when selling puts on momo stocks. This bar started at about $20 and dipped to about $10.

June 1: close positions due to general market weakness. Long the July 30 call +51%, Short Dec 30 put +17%, the June 30 put will likely expire -100%. +19% overall basis margin. I think I would do an option combo like this again.

June 1.1: Opps, June 30 put – 87%. Overall is about +14% basis margin.

May 26, 2011

Sold June 35 PCH puts for 0.85 — expecting a bounce. (update 1, June 1) +17%

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Short Puts — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 1:45 pm

Will cover on any decent bounce.

+ 3 stabs toward 35 with no follow through.
+ Long legged candles.
+ At long term EMA support and daily Bollinger Band support.
– EMA’s are heading down.
+ Weekly and daily CCI’s oversold.
+ Daily CCI crossed upward over weekly CCI.
– Monthly CCI heading down.
– Fair amount of selling volume, but trending down.

June 1: Wish I covered on the large gap up but was not at the computer near the open yesterday. Price “should’t” have gone this much lower so time to get out. +17% — even though the trade happened about 30 cents lower. Will wait for the daily CCI to dip below -100.

March 30, 2011

Sold CNQ put (paper trade) (update May 15) +100% (put), -17% (stock)

Filed under: +76 to +100%, -05 to -24%, Long Stock, Mistakes, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:58 pm

Sold April 49 put for 0.50 yesterday when price was about 48.53.

+ Price opened below yesterdays low, tagged the 34 ema and rose a fair amount.
+ From the IBD big cap 20.
+ Stock is in an uptrend.
– Volume is pretty weak. THe very conservative might wish to cover.

May 15: No more paper trades. I was deluding myself that I was not solely focused on silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. Using Fridays low as the exit point for getting out of the stock.

March 24, 2011

PCH – selling far out of the money puts, again (paper trade) (updated May 15) +80%

Filed under: +76 to +100%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:49 pm

Sold May 35 puts for 0.50.

(Notice all these PCH put shorts have made money, easily.)

+ Looks like price might be coming out of a 4th wave. Doubtful it would close below 35.
+ EMA’s all moving up.
+ CCI’s all moving up.
– Volume is a bit tepid, but that’s the only slight negative I see.
+ In fact, the weekly CCI starting to rise from a dip with a rising monthly CCI is quite bullish.

The reason these are far out of the money puts is because there are not that many strike prices to choose from.

References
+ PCH – selling far out of the money puts +100%
+ Timber: An Excellent Retirement Vehicle

May 15: No more paper trades. I was deluding myself that I was not solely focused on silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. Covering at 0.10.

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