Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 23, 2013

NGLS – Buying due to small breakout. +3% (update 1, Jan 6)

Filed under: +0 to +5%, IBD Bounty — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:12 am

Bought March 2014 50 call for $300.
Stop loss is a close below 47ish.
Partial profits target is new highs.

NGLS daily sep 23 2013

The “IBD Bounty”, a very simple breakout system. Watching AWAY.

Updated January 6, 2014. +3%
Decided to sell for a small profit a few trading days ago. (Sorry, just catching up now — normally I post trades in near real time.) There were 3 past times the position could have been (partially) sold for a bigger profit. But that did not happen since I was “waiting” for a bigger move.

NGLS daily Jan 5 2014

September 20, 2013

The “IBD Bounty”, a very simple breakout system. Watching AWAY.

Filed under: IBD Bounty — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:57 am

There will likely be significant volatility, but stocks are headed much, much higher. Specifically…

The lists change weekly, and who wants to go long 100 stocks, sometimes at a local top? So select those that have been resting a bit (month or 2), and buy when they leave that base.

  • Enter when Trader Vic’s near or medium term down trend line is broken to the upside. This is the catalyst. Trading above a significant reference point tends to “show” price wants to go up more than down.
  • Buy shares, or in-the-money 6 month calls. These are momentum stocks. If they haven’t gone up after a few months, something is not right.
  • Initial stop loss below nearest low, or rising trend line, or EMA’s.
  • Exits. 50% at first resistance, or a big gap up, etc., the rest with a close below the 20 EMA.
  • Postion size: Risk/use 5% of available capital.

AWAY sep 19 2013 daily

Update 1, October 5:
– Entry: Why wait until the trend line is broken? Buying the stock around point 1 would have resulted in a 15% drawdown. And if the overall market had gone lower, this stock could have gone much lower. Note that because a new low was made the trend line is redrawn (blue).
– The ABC correction is ubiquitous. It flushed out the weak hands. Chances are about 50/50 the correction is over. AWAY’s correction so far seems to be a complex correction. That’s okay. Not breaking the trednline to the upside kept us out of the position.
– Initial stop loss: Note price never closed below lower support (point 2).
– Options verses shares: Shares would have resulted in a 15% drawdown. For 100 shares, that would be about $450. (Maybe much more. Stocks like this can drop substantially.) A JAN 2014 30 call options would have cost about $450  and right now is worth about $285. In other words, long dated at or in the money options can reduce risk.

AWAY daily oct 5 2013

September 13, 2013

Coffee – Nibbling long again -34% (update 1, Sept 17)

Filed under: Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:43 am

Buy DEC 24 call for 1.75
+ Commercial COT still very net long
+ Price just broke out of the 2 year down trendline.

JO daily sep 12 7.18 pst

JO – Buy Coffee (update 2 August 21 – 41%)

Update 1, September 17:
Price broke back below the trend line invalidating the reason for the trade so time to exit. -34%

JO daily sep 17 8.20.2013

September 11, 2013

10 Dating Ideas Almost Nobody Wants To See, Hear, Or Know

Filed under: 10 Ideas, Editorials — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:51 pm

Disclaimer: Musings, in general, I have no proof, April Fools…

  • First, give some space and relax:
  • No sex until you see, understand, and accept, their shadow side. Everyone is a package; there are no line item vetoes.
    • Soon tech will be to the point where we can tell our bed at night, “Make me half zebra with iridescent stripes that shed rose petals” and billions of nano bots will have us ready by morning. So we will shroud with increasingly pretty and distracting covers. Learn how to get the heart now — talk about gender identity issues!
    • Conversely, you are having sex with their shadow too. Hmmm… do you have any idea what it looks like? The fangs? The claws? The abject stupid? Beer goggles can’t fix it!!
  • Try not to break item 1 too soon. 😉 But…
    • Waiting until everything is known and perfect will doom the species. Even moderation shouldn’t be taken to excess.
  • Partners should bring out the best in each other. Everything we want is already inside of us. Nice, warm and fuzzy, but…
  • Dating sucks because consciousness attracts consciousness, and 90% of us have trouble letting go of baggage, thus, therefore, ipso facto, and a prima facie: duh, we have baggage.
    • If your dates consistently tend to be a !?#*@*@!!, list what you hate about them. 95% chance they are just mirroring your own baggage. So title the list, Things I Don’t Want To, But Might Want To, Change Someday Even Though It’s Definitely All Their Fault. Now pick one and sit with it until you understand it’s facets, and the heat dissipates. Doesn’t mean they are not still !?#*@*@!!’s, just that they are not driving your life off a cliff.
      • Now you don’t have to find a real therapist. Ironic! Because good therapists are rarer than good dates. That’s why a monk lifestyle seems so alluring and sexy.
      • Focus on what you do well. NOT baggage, unless it is in the way. Then, be optimistic! Maybe you only have one piece of baggage? Work though it and see if that was good enough.
  • Consider asking your date, “What do you want?” Be vulnerable first.
    • Defenselessness shows that you are comfortable with yourself and have some courage.
    • Shows you are not just mirroring what you think they want to hear that you think they want you to think you hear… too freaking confusing.
    • Makes people feel safer, and so, lie less.
  • Don’t gossip. Bonding over gossip is fun and easy, but then all you have is a hollow relationship based on disparaging others.
    • And those others will likely find out in seconds, probably from your date, hate your guts, key your car, and forever spread nasty gossip about you.
  • Be kind. Life is challenging. You will probably never see them again, unless you want a crappy relationship, so give them a complement. What  children remember most about parents? If they were kind or not.
  • Men, sorry: women are smarter and more capable than us, in multiple ways.
    • Historically, while we were running around chasing stuff that ran away from us (easy to bond over and rather fun until they chase us back), women were having to raise kids, get along with each other, grow food, make lunch, and be the last defense to marauders. They often let us think we are smarter to save the effort of being in a power struggle they win anyway.
    • Also historically, women had to deal with worrying about us not returning. Was our absence due to the allure of marauding another village’s women? Or were we painfully hobbling home half eaten? Although women tend to like us, this presents them with more work to do: Find another mate, or nurse us until we die from smelly infections, and then find another mate anyway. So, women like it when we return when we say we will return, and give them something valuable. This used to be called survival, now because it’s trivial for women to procure their own protein, this is called romance and it’s more complicated.
    • Men have to adapt: now the chase is to do something that uniquely speaks to a woman’s soul so that they know we are paying attention to them (not too their friends).
  • Women, sorry: We are confused with adapting from primarily protecting you and our children (our genes), to nicely supporting you and your children.
    • Historically “protection” and “nice support”, are mostly mutually exclusive. An effective protector tends to shoot first and ask questions later because empathetic ponderers are super easy to kill, making you and your kids more vulnerable. That’s why there are 10 times more psychopathic males than females.
    • And protectors need to be roaming about looking for trouble to keep battles away from home. But males are still social creatures, yet are often away from the supportive social nexus.
    • So, historically, young males are lonely jerks who need a lot of testosterone to stay alive but then are sexually frustrated and make poor snap decisions. Currently there are more around because war changed from physical, to economic and informational.
    • The old pattern of dealing with stuff was hard to let go of because it’s so alluringly simple:
    • Can I hump it?
      • Yes, then do so. (But don’t bring it home!) Then find something else to encounter.
      • No? Well, can I eat it?
        • Yes, then do so, and bring some back home, stay for a bit, then go out protecting again.
        • No? Well, can I kill it?
          • Yes, then do so. If it’s food, bring it home. Then find something else to encounter.
          • No? Well, umm.. can I hump it?
  • “Power is never granted, only taken”. Lead the way with grace to receive what you want.

leaf heart

Zenith expressions of joy are universal, pure, and innocent; best romantic framework known…

Update 1 January 2015
Tucker interviews Dr. Christopher Ryan, the bestselling author of Sex at Dawn

August 29, 2013

Crude Oil — Looking to short soon

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:30 pm

– Commercials appear to be near record short.
QM weekly COT aug 29 2013

– Jeff Clark, excellent trader, suggests a small rise of about $5, then that could be it. But that could fail and things.

But as the price of oil approaches the $113 target level and the threat of military action runs its course, oil is likely to form an important intermediate-term top.

– CCI’s looking weak.
qmv13 aug 29 daily 2013

– Cycles point lower too.
CL cycles august 29 2013

10 Ideas > Sweetness > Make a cake for a friend

Filed under: Systems — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:15 pm
  1. Tell someone they are sweet today.
  2. Take 5 minutes to draw hexagons. (Bee hexagons tessellate (create a repeated pattern with no gaps.)
  3. Show my daughter how to get nectar from a honeysuckle flower.
  4. Make doughnuts from scratch.
  5. Have no sugar for a month and see what it’s like.
  6. Hang out around small children.
  7. Recall and revel, and give thanks for the past sweetest moments in life.
  8. For a day, use the word sweet in every sentence.
  9. Throw a sweet themed party.

August 26, 2013

Economic response to why fire hydrant locations should stay “secret”

Filed under: Castpoints, Editorials, Systems — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:29 am

The following was sent to a lot of people via a list. The response:


I don’t know why? The following seems to be a very rational and concrete way to handle a complicated situation:

I like Bruce Schneier’s take on security. A great way to evaluate options is to put a price tag on all the variables so they can be easily compared.

A) Hydrant information is already public, just not convenient. And to some degree, pipe information is probably knowable “enough” just from connecting dots on a map because small pipes flow into bigger pipes, and the start and end of lines are obvious.
– The cost to an attacker to gather this data is very low.
– The cost of keeping this data (servers, managing and monitoring access) is ???
– The benefits (in $$$) to making parts of this info transparent so it can be used is ???
– There are benefits to local people taking ownership of local infrastructure — they take care of it more. What is that worth ($$$)?
“Security by obscurity” has low value.

B) Past threats
– What was the cost of each way stopping past threats?
– What is the cost of each preventive measures? Including false positives.
Typically, standard police work probably stopped the threats, and or the majority of threats would have a  minor effect.

C) The public’s fears are typically very irrational and disproportionate.
– What is the real cost, in dollars, of mitigating each of those fears?
– Rank all threats via probability.
– What is the cost of mitigating real threats?
Present this information to the public and ask them how much money they want to spend, in aggregate, and per person. It’s educational without being preachy or boring, takes pressure off policymakers (who would prefer to go overboard to be able to say, “we did everything possible” rather than have a problem on their watch (I would!)), and people have an easy way to compare alternatives so discussion can be concrete.

D) Out of date data.
– Just indicate when updated. If it’s very important, the user can double check things.

E) The GIS data.
Applying the general 3 levels of threat:

  • The opportunistic (stealing stuff from unlocked cars, etc.). Basic common sense (locks, gates) fixes the vast majority of this. GIS data is safe because these people don’t even know what GIS is — it has no value to them.
  •  The moderately determined (people who deploy a moderate amount of resources). People could spend weeks in planning, join a company to get trust, passwords, etc. One rule of thumb is that roughly 75% of security problems are inside jobs. If true in this case, that automatically provides a ratio of problems to solve.
  • The very well funded, typically government, military, etc. Basically can’t readily protect against them — too costly.

Mr. Schneier often says, after the obvious threats are addressed, it’s often better to allocate resources for monitoring and fast intervention and remediation, rather than on increasingly low risk reward situations. Darwin’s adaptability.

August 18, 2013

August Quotes and Snippets: Quotation is a serviceable substitute for wit. — Oscar Wilde

Filed under: Snippets — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:25 pm

If the grass looks greener on the other side of the fence, it may be that they take batter care of it there . — Cecil Selig

Even moderation should not be taken to excess. — me

People are like stained-glass windows. They sparkle and shine when the sun is out, but when the darkness sets in, their true beauty is revealed only if there is a light from within. — Elisabeth Kübler-Ross

What is the only section of a grocery store a person can get stuck in for 10 years and thrive? The veggie section.

Be curious. Read widely. Try new things. What people call intelligence just boils down to curiosity. — Aaron Swartz

And we know that’s a measurement error because it’s messing up my data. — Shawn Achor: The happy secret to better work

Keep me away from wisdom which does not cry, philosophy which does not laugh, and greatness which does not bow before children. — Ghibran.

The skill of writing is to create context in which other people can think. — Edwin Schlossberg — Tim O’Reilly Some Lessons For Startups

For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. — Richard Feynman

The maximum power principle can be stated: During self organization, system designs develop and prevail that maximize power intake, energy transformation, and those uses that reinforce production and efficiency. — H.T.Odum 1995

~ It has been pointed out by Boltzmann that the fundamental object of contention in the life-struggle, in the evolution of the organic world, is available energy. In accord with this observation is the principle that, in the struggle for existence, the advantage must go to those organisms whose energy-capturing devices are most efficient in directing available energy into channels favorable to the preservation [then thriving] of the species. — A.J.Lotka 1922

Quit the world. Quit the next world. Quit quitting. — Ram Dass

There are 10 kinds of people. Those that understand binary and those that don’t. — ?

An idea is something you have; an ideology is something that has you. — ?

Authority gone to one’s head is the greatest enemy of truth. — Albert Einstein

Good propaganda fools the people who see it. Great propaganda fools the people who make it. — Dan Neil

It’s not what you say, it’s what they hear. — Red Auerbach’s famous remark about basketball coaches talking to their basketball players

There’s nothing more practical than a good theory. — Kurt Lewin, considered to be the founder of social psychology.

The best criticism of the bad is the practice of the better. — Francis of Assisi

It’s hard to be militant in defense of moderation. — Garrison Keillor

An error is the more dangerous in proportion to the degree of truth which it contains. — Henri Frederic Amiel

When we feel good, we are allowing good. When we don’t feel good, we are not allowing good. — Abraham

August 12, 2013

JO – Buy Coffee (update 2 August 21 – 41%)

Filed under: -25 to -49%, Long Calls, Long Stock — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:30 pm

Buy DEC 25 calls for < 2.30.
Stop loss 1.10 ish.

Buy stop shares at about 26.05.
Stop loss 23.93

+ Gann Global has a nice video out advising long coffee suggesting a minimum 30% rise.
Long term coffee chart.

KC weekly cot august 12 2013

JO weekly aug 12 3013

+ All daily CCI’s are pointing up.
+ Today was a NR7 on the ETF sitting right on support.

JO daily august 12 2013

Update 1 August 13
Bought call for 1.85.

Update 2 August 21
Closing position at 1.10. Price did not break up, it continued with the main trend.

August 11, 2013

XOM – sell puts soon? (update 1, Aug 15)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:31 am

+ Medium term magenta CCI is nearing a bottom.
+ Up trend line nearby.
+ Medium term magenta EMA nearby.

Giving it a few more days then might sell a SEP 90 or 92.5 put.

XOM daily Aug 11 2013

Update 1, August 15
This is why I like to wait for confirmation: price can easily just keep going. The fact that price went through 2 significant supports could suggest this move is rather strong.

XOM daily Aug 15 2013

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