Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 19, 2011

The last LBMA SIFO update for a while

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:24 am

More recent post: LBMA SIFO from November 2006 to September 2012

James Turk’s Sep 17 trading comments: …the LBMA’s GOFO is no longer a reliable rate. I think the banks are just making it up to paint a picture that has some semblance of normalcy. But things in Europe are anything but normal. Abnormal relationships in short-term currency vs. gold interest rates make that point clear.

I assume that goes for SIFO too. I’m not interested in keeping up with it anymore.

August 14, 2011

Long December silver. Updates on partial backwardation, M1 and M2, and seasonality (update 3, May 2)

Filed under: Systems — Tags: , , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:13 am

Buy stop: 39.25
Stop loss: 37.80

+/- Weekly RSI at fulcrum point?
+ NR7 bar on near term EMA and Bollinger Band support.
– Low volume.
+ EMA’s heading up.
+ Seasonality likely bottoming.

Money supplies being inflated:

Although a low risk seasonal turn point is near the end of the month, a closer turning put is near. Worth the risk to be a bit early.

Turd Ferguson: A Look At The Latest CoT

August 16: Moved stop loss up to todays low. Price probably should have launched up today. Instead it was a narrow range 7 day.

August 17: Moved stop to break even.

May 2, 2012: Closed the trade — did not track it and don’t want to look it up right now 🙂

August 1, 2011

LBMA silver in partial backwardation, again.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:45 am

July 27, 2011

General silver backwardation update

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:55 am

+ A Short History of US Credit Defaults
+ Xiphos_Trading: Trader just did it 22K more times: Sabre and I love this trade: $GLD – Gold Aug. 167/175 and Aug. 168/176 Call Spreads Each Bought 20,000X today….that would be some kind of move….

Okay I’m a tad slow:

July 15, 2011

Silver – general update, no more SIFO backwardation – 5 charts

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:47 pm

Raymond Merriman Comments for the Week Beginning July 18, 2011 The first message has to do with heliocentric Mercury entering Sagittarius, July 19-31… Traders like Sagittarius because it also correlates with large price moves, especially in commodities like Gold and Silver. But what causes the big price moves in commodities? Usually an exaggeration of something that is not quite right in the world, like an impending default on your credit. Thus everyday in which an agreement on the debt ceiling limit is not forthcoming, the hysteria will likely increase, reflected proportionately in the size of the moves up in commodities and down in equities. Of course, there is the possibility that an agreement could be made, in which case the opposite happens in large price swings: stocks go sharply up and commodities come sharply down…

Weekly old silver ratio suggest silver to out preform gold for a few weeks.


Full SIFO history.

July 5, 2011

Silver in less backwardation

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:50 am

Don’t know what to make of the comparison other than I don’t notice anything actionable at the moment.

Only 30 cent differential between front and most forward month.

June 20, 2011

Silver backwardation update – not much changed in the past week.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:34 am

June 5, 2011

LBMA backwardation update and all 3 12 month SIFO’s compared

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:26 pm

Apologies the chart is so busy. Looking at ways to present data more meaningfully. The most recent backwardation is the thin orange line.

June 2, 2011

LBMA SIFO update — some near months out of backwardation

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 2:08 pm

I will add this recent backwardation dip to the 2008 and February 2011 SIFO comparison chart this weekend.

+ LBMA current stats
+ Rick Rule – Silver Shortage Continues, Financial Crisis Looms

May 27, 2011

Finally bought some SLW July 37 calls for 2.30, and silver SIFO backwardation update (update 2, August 23)

Filed under: Long Calls — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:16 am

+ Down trend line broke with a samll back test. Could be a bigger back test so only entered a partial position.
+ Showing divergence in SLW silver ratio.
+ Closed the gap from about 2 weeks ago.

Fundamentals in no danger of changing anytime soon:
+ fed/gov printing forever.
+ Market is in a constant (partial) backwardation.

CME silver still in partial backwardation.

June 1: I think this might be a real loser. Although it was not do too much considering. The fundamental picture is as strong as ever, but I’m not really looking for a bottom until Martin Armstrong’s June 13-ish turn date. On the other hand the silver market could snap at anytime. Of course that one thought has cost me more money than any other thought so it’s getting time to cut losses.

The weekly and daily CCI look good though. The monthly does not, but lags a lot.

August 23: I don’t recall what happened with this one. I think it might have lost money though.

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