Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 10, 2011

Silver, seasonality, SIFO, BASENS comparison, SLW

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:37 pm

General silver seasonality suggests a turning point mid September…

Yet the cycles don’t seem very bullish to me. Except 2001 which helped mark the current overall bull market.

No more LBMA backwardation. (Still $1.44 partial backwardation in comex silver.)

Daily silver chart
– Rather big down volume relative to up volume the past few days.
– Mid term RSI below longer term RSI.
+- Overall seems a bit neutral to me.

Opps, I meant to say if price drops, not dips, below the hammer. That would also be near the rising channel. I really don’t expect too much of a drop, if one even happens, since the open interest is so low. Maybe down to 37, the rising magenta mid term EMA.

SLW
– apologies for chart clutter — just wanted to highlight 2 targets.
– Seems like all the RSI’s are rolling over.

August 14, 2011

Long December silver. Updates on partial backwardation, M1 and M2, and seasonality (update 3, May 2)

Filed under: Systems — Tags: , , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:13 am

Buy stop: 39.25
Stop loss: 37.80

+/- Weekly RSI at fulcrum point?
+ NR7 bar on near term EMA and Bollinger Band support.
– Low volume.
+ EMA’s heading up.
+ Seasonality likely bottoming.

Money supplies being inflated:

Although a low risk seasonal turn point is near the end of the month, a closer turning put is near. Worth the risk to be a bit early.

Turd Ferguson: A Look At The Latest CoT

August 16: Moved stop loss up to todays low. Price probably should have launched up today. Instead it was a narrow range 7 day.

August 17: Moved stop to break even.

May 2, 2012: Closed the trade — did not track it and don’t want to look it up right now 🙂

April 25, 2011

Since fed started overt printing, BASENS +190%, silver +225% (correction April 26)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:24 pm

Edit April 26: The Ticker Guy pointed out I did not know what I was talking about. I assumed I was talking about coins, cash and deposit accounts, but:

St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (BASENS) The sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a,b, 2001, 2003).

I have a hard time believing it in some ways, now that silver has awakened, seems to me silver should ascend quite a bit over the next few weeks and months.

References
+ FRN monetary base and silver both up about 186% since fed started overt printing

April 12, 2011

FRN monetary base and silver both up about 186% since fed started overt printing (corrected April 26)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:50 am

Edit April 26: The Ticker Guy pointed out I did not know what I was talking about. I assumed I was talking about coins, cash and deposit accounts, but:

St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (BASENS) The sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a,b, 2001, 2003).

Offhand, I expect the price of silver to begin overtaking the growth of BASENS in the next few months.

References
+ Update: Monetary base +180% and silver +170%.
+ St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (BASENS)

March 24, 2011

Update: Monetary base +180% and silver +170%. (corrected April 26)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:32 pm

Edit April 26: The Ticker Guy pointed out I did not know what I was talking about. I assumed I was talking about coins, cash and deposit accounts, but:

St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (BASENS) The sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a,b, 2001, 2003).

For the past 2 months, BASENS averaged +4% every 2 weeks and silver averaged +8% every 2 weeks.

Say it’s not a coincidence and silver keep rising on average 8% every 2 weeks …
In 1 month silver could be about 44 frn’s/oz.
In 2 months silver could be about 51 frn’s/oz.
In 3 months silver could be about 60 frn’s/oz.
In 6 months silver could be about 94 frn’s/oz.

Plus, the chart of both lines seems to be smooth and smoothly correlated now — meaning that possibly the system has become locked together — meaning that possibly the music is about to stop. When there is no more room for the normal give and take, lookout, pressures might be high all around and something might snap.

In other words, the fed (not federal, nor reserve, just debt) now HAS to keep printing, AND can’t stop, and silver reflects this.

As Adjusted Monetary Base Rises By Half A Trillion In 2011, Treasury Runs Out Of Debt Ceiling Delay Measures

References
+ Monetary base +170% and silver +160%. Coincidence?
+ Did a 140% rise in the Monetary Base lead to a 150% rise in silver?
+ St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (BASENS)

March 12, 2011

Monetary base +170% and silver +160%. Coincidence? (Corrected April 26)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:56 am

Edit April 26: The Ticker Guy pointed out I did not know what I was talking about. I assumed I was talking about coins, cash and deposit accounts, but:

St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (BASENS) The sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a,b, 2001, 2003).

Since the fed / gov can’t / won’t stop printing no matter what nomenclature they use / don’t use, expect silver to ascend until something better comes along.

Raw data.

References
+ Did a 140% rise in the Monetary Base lead to a 150% rise in silver?

February 26, 2011

Did a 140% rise in the Monetary Base lead to a 150% rise in silver? (Corrected April 26)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:17 pm

Edit April 26: The Ticker Guy pointed out I did not know what I was talking about. I assumed I was talking about coins, cash and deposit accounts, but:

St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (BASENS) The sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a,b, 2001, 2003).

Since roughly September 24th 2008:
– Monetary Base has risen 140%.
+ Silver has risen 150%.
+ Gold has risen 57%.

Fundamentally the fed (not federal, nor reserve) is busy as a bee printing and devaluing federal reserve notes that people pay to use.

The Monetary Base’s current rate of change is about 6.4%.

Referneces
+ Kitco silver spot prices

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