Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

October 16, 2011

Long December USZ1 puts from Friday morning… (update 3, Oct 25) -61%

Filed under: Futures Trades, Long Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:59 pm

I might be a bit late to the party — price could easily be doing a fake breakdown. We will see. Stop loss is a strong close above 141.

October 17: Since anyone can now get in at a better price πŸ™‚ this trade will be official. Long DEC 135 puts for 1.76.

October 20:
– RSI’s could still go down much more, not that they have too. Just that there is room.

October 25: -61% I was late to the party πŸ™‚

May 12, 2011

Looking to short bonds via Eurodollars…

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:09 am

The issuse with bonds is I have read somewhere the fed/gov (not federal, nor gov) is buying most of them (70% already?). If so, why would the price EVER go down unless they wanted them too??? I don’t know. But I do know Eurodollars are way more liquid than bonds and the fed/gov might not be able to buy as many. (Eurodollars have over 10 times the open interest, AND 10 times the notional value per contract verses bonds.)

Xiphos_Trading on TLT: Unable to hold its NL breakout. May take another go, may go get sold hard too.

Seems to me price has at least one more rise left in it.

April 8, 2011

Silver update April 8th

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 1:08 am

Silver is up a significant amount overnight. And importantly, bonds and the dollar index are both down while most everything else is up. But this is after hours. If these trends continue tomorrow I would think they will stick.

quotes.ino.com

Xiphos_Trading
USDX looks so sorry & sick tonight. Shelve ur preconceived notions of what commodities “should” be doing. These moves lately are FX driven.

To me, this could mean that enough of the background machinations are spilling to the forefront that things could start to shift quickly. There is so much going on, and I am busy right now with other things, I don’t even try to keep up.

+ Surprising Observations From TrimTabs: “Are Central Bankers Loading Up On Gold?”
+ A breakout of this consolidation expanding wedge is huge. A halfway consolidation in time & price.
+ More Trump: Smackdown on MSNBC
+ Marc Faber – Mr. Bernanke is a Murderer of the Middle Class
++ (Excellent charts!) Silver Is Getting Too Popular… Right? By Jeff Clark of Casey Research

Please click on MRCI long term silver chart and note that once silver moved out of it’s final (for 1979) consolidation, it spiked up 3 months (about) and that was it. I’m not saying silver will spike now, only that it could, and likely most generic black boxes don’t include that data.

Normally, it seems that silver is sold hard if it opens significantly higher then the previous days high if price is a bit extended. Maybe not this time???

March 15, 2011

Silver, bonds, USD update for March 15…

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:49 pm

Not really interested in markets much right now…

The 2008 and 2011 correlation is no more.

The main thing noted in the 2011 backwardation is the 12 month is not following the other months up. One could speculate that near term demand has been supplied, but not over all demand. (???)

COMEX is about the same.

Bonds are not acting like a safe haven.

Nor is the dollar index. And if price is trading below all the major yearly trendlines, it can go a lot lower.

Here is something that is going up a lot more in price than almost anything today: Iodine pills on eBay. From $20 to $520 $610 for 28 doses. There are other sources. Yesterday, a person could have bought 5 kg’s — 11,000 doses — for less.

March 3, 2011

Debt: US dollar index, bonds, eurodollars: less than perky

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:01 pm

What the abundance of federal reserve notes are based on:

Eurodollars, (time deposits denominated in U.S. dollars at banks outside the United States) are a huge market. And they are bearish.

The dollar index (which is different than the “USD”) is taking it’s sweet time to even bounce.

References
+ US dollar nearing the supporting trendline for the 5th time

February 22, 2011

Surveying the playing field: fortunes can be made or lost in the next month or so, and sent to PCH :-)

Filed under: Editorials — Tags: , , , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:54 am

I have closed out most other trades. The primary focus is on silver. Why?

1) A comment on Mr Ferguson’s update that Friday March open interest only dropped a small 4.5%.

Difficulty in choosing right currency has become unmanageable – gold will continue to become currency of strength without liability; storehouse of value; medium of exchange

Possibly, at some point, people will begin focusing more on purchasing power stability and less on trying to eek out a few percent deciding which currency is the least worst every month, which bond’s won’t default, and which stocks will not drop too much.

Feb 22 update: And Wow: Fed’s Hoenig Says United States Has “Deeply Undermined Free-Market Capitalism” How can entities manage their affairs efficiently if the rules keep being modified in secret? Sooner or later they find more efficient paths. Ticker Guy’s take.

2) Silver is still, by far, the most undervalued store of wealth.

3) Timing. I don’t have a high success rate at timing things. In a way, that’s why I prefer to sell puts — timing can be off a lot and the trade can still be profitable.

John Embry: Eric Sprott and I have always contended that in silver if you get some serious physical buying in the absence of above ground inventories that are available for sale, that the paper manipulators would basically get overrun. Right now we are in the process seeing that unfolding… I definitely think a short squeeze is underway in silver. The evidence will be if the price of silver moves sharply higher from here. I think you will know if you have a real short squeeze if this thing starts piling on gains in the next week.

4) What vehicle? The COMEX can and will likely change the rules in their favor to try to survive. So other than a few token June 60 calls, that venue seems risky. ETF’s — except Eric Sprott’s probably have less silver than advertised. That leaves silver stocks and SLW appears to be the best. And of course options are to be considered in potential situations where large percentage sustained moves can happen in short timeframes.

That all boils down to a few SLW June 60 calls (incase price goes ballistic), and SLW June at the money calls that are rolled forward as they get a few strike prices in the money. The stop loss is a close under the 10 EMA. If silver really is about to rise substantially, except for a few fast drops, price should steadily rise higher.

The over all exit strategy? If price really does take off, start shifting some value to things that the gov is not (yet) interested in. For me, that is PCH, PCL and maybe WY.

Bonds/debt are weak:
Feb 22 EDIT: Opps, I did not update the data correctly, this chart is incorrect. Debt did go up today a fair amount on good volume. Correct chart:

Old chart:

Stocks continue to be overbought (I speculate that a tug-of-war going on between value and fed printing):

January 19, 2011

Shorted March refuse-to-crash-bonds +4%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, Futures Trades — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 3:39 am

Short from 120.875 yesterday.
Stop loss at 120.72.

– Very poor fundamentals due to outgo > income.
– Triangle pushing up against 34 EMA.
– 34 and 170 EMA’s heading down.
– 3 trading days ago the one big volume up did not make it to the top of the triangle. And the next day was over 50% reversed.
+ It bonds, the gov will try everything to keep them from reverting to their intrinsic worth.
+/- Bollinger Bands have contracted. Expect a move one way or another soon.

Stop loss triggered. +4% The stops were run, price is back down so I will wait for another short opportunity..

December 29, 2010

Historical popularity of the words: silver, debt, money, gold, bonds

Filed under: Systems — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:36 am

The Google Books Ngram displays a graph showing how phrases have occurred in a corpus of books (e.g., “British English”, “English Fiction”, “French”) over the selected years. Ngram for “silver,debt,money,gold,bonds” from 1800 to 2008.

+ Clearly “gold is money”!
– I’m really surprised “debt” has not been much more prominent lately.

December 15, 2010

Update: bonds and the small silver market

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:44 am

UPDATE Jan 22: Cleared things up here.

– LBMA silver Backwardation nearby lease rates are now in it’s 4th day with the first and second months.

A reports via King World News: “Last week Asian buyers let the price come in to them. They were buying all day long, hitting all of the offers and they were not sending the price higher… What they are doing is buying spot, which is a currency transaction because you can’t get the metal. The physical market has now completely diverged from the paper market.
– Bonds continue to decline on volume.

– There is supposedly about $2 trillion in about 15,000 hedge funds. (some funds are pretty small though)
– $1.5 billion, or 10,000 contracts, would buy all of the available COMEX silver.
– The position limit is 1,500 contracts or 7.5 million ozs, or $15 million in margin, or $225 million to take delivery.
– So, if 7 hedge funds took max delivery the COMEX would be bare.
– Or, all the hedge funds could buy all the available COMEX silver with less than 0.1% of capital.

Since September, Larry Ellison of ORCL sold enough shares to buy all the available COMEX silver.

Muni bonds (MUB) have been going down on big volume too. At some point people are going to want to put all that money somewhere “safe”, away from counter party risk. Silver seems like a good place to me!

References:
LBMA 1 Month Silver Forwards > 2 Month SIFO For Past 2 Days (2)
Death Of The Dollar: Muni Bonds (3)

December 14, 2010

Dollar death: muni bonds (3)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:53 pm

The US Dollar looks to be in trouble. It is based on debt, or possibly more accurately the ability to sell debt. And actually a US Dollar is 371 4/16 grain (24.1 g) pure or 416 grain (27.0 g) standard silver. The current colloquial “dollar” is actually a Federal Reserve Note. It’s debt. And debt is loosing it’s status since there is so much of it floating around.

Here is a nice graphic of municipal debt (MUB). Does not look good:
– Below both moving averages
– Moving averages have crossed over
– Big volume on the down days, less volume on the up days
– Big ranging bars compared to October
– The pullback in late November did not pull back very far

The weekly muni bond chart is interesting. At first glance it’s not so bad.
+ Price is still above the highs of late 2008.
On closer inspection though…
– There is relatively big volume the past 5 weeks compared to Oct 2008. (This is a big deal. It suggests price was going down in sympathy with the stock market in general. Now munis are being sold.)
– The recent pullback B was very shallow compared to the older pullback B
– By the 6th week price was already heading back up and into the pullback A area

And a quick update on bonds:
– New lows on large volume
– Now riding the lower Bollinger band (not shown)
– Down volume is increasing on this leg down (last 2 weeks)
– Recently 7 down days and 3 up days

References:
Bonds: The Death Of The Dollar (2): Sell When Price Undercuts
Bonds: The Death Of The Dollar (1)

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