Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

October 23, 2011

Looking to go long December cocoa due to seasonals, COT, and NR7. (update 5, Nov 9) +40%

Filed under: +26 to +50%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:48 pm

Buy stop near 2954. Dyslexia?? 🙂 2594.
Stop loss near 2542.

+ Seaonals look to be at a turning point.

+ The mid term RSI is above the long term RSI.
+ The recent bottom in early October was tested.

October 24:
+ Ok volume so far. Expecting to get near 2700 relatively easily or else get out.

November 3: Stop moved up to 2665.

November 7: Moved stop up to around 2670. Price should rise from today’s NR7.
+ There was decent up volume the past 3 green bars.
+ Price is resting on the shorter term EMA.
– There is a potential seasonal turing point around November 9th.

November 8: Stopped out. +40% based on margin.
– Down on volume. (If volume was light, that might just be running stops like this. With volume though seems more bearish. Will be interesting to see what happens over he next week.

November 9: Why it was profitable to get out. Maybe today is a bottom. Don’t want to find out the hard way.

August 15, 2011

Bought December Cocoa 2900 call for $1,670 (update 2, August 16) -1%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, Futures Trades, Long Calls — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:00 am

Seems to be at weekly support.

Opps wanted to add the seasonals.

August 18: Closed position since there was a huge outside reversal. -1%

If today’s bar was simply like coffee’s, I would have kept it.

May 16, 2011

Looking to short July cocoa (update 2, May 18) -1%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:20 pm

Short around 2995 ish.
Stop loss 3041 ish.

– Weak volume today
– Weak bounce off trend line.
– Monthly and weekly CCI’s trending down.
+ Daily CCI oversold.
± Setting on a 8 month long trend line.
± Commitment Of Traders is neutral.
– Seasonals suggest a sharp move down, but it seems to be a few days early for that.

May 17:

May 18: Stopped out. MIght have been a mistake to lower the stop loss a bit soon. Will be interesting to see what happens the next few days.

February 2, 2011

Long Cocoa. Extended, but can get more so for a week. +1%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, Futures Trades — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:11 am

Long March cocoa at 3348.
Stop loss at 3280.

+ Looks like the last bar was part of a correction: rather long lower wick.
+Monthly and weekly CCI’s rising with weekly over monthly.
+/- Daily CCI rather high, but not unexpected if price is strong: dip should be small nad not give daily CCI time to get near -100.
EMA both rising with the 34 above the 170.
+ Very strong volume the past few weeks.
– Daily RSI > 70. For the past few years, this has almost always lead to a pullback. But when price was very strong it took a week or so to stat the pullback. So the stop can be kept very close.
– Commercials are net short, but not at extremes.

A bit risky for me, but should be okay with a tight stop. Drilled down to 60 minute chart for a buy stop closer to the sell stop.

Feb 3: Sold at 3351 +1%. Expected price to be ripping upward. It’s not, so time to be flat.

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