Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

November 3, 2011

Charts of JPM’s year to date (October 31) client and house Ag, Au issuing and stopping activity.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:35 pm

This is an update of similar charts from about 2 weeks ago. No major changes in trend. JPM’s clients want metal.

August 14, 2011

Long December silver. Updates on partial backwardation, M1 and M2, and seasonality (update 3, May 2)

Filed under: Systems — Tags: , , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:13 am

Buy stop: 39.25
Stop loss: 37.80

+/- Weekly RSI at fulcrum point?
+ NR7 bar on near term EMA and Bollinger Band support.
– Low volume.
+ EMA’s heading up.
+ Seasonality likely bottoming.

Money supplies being inflated:

Although a low risk seasonal turn point is near the end of the month, a closer turning put is near. Worth the risk to be a bit early.

Turd Ferguson: A Look At The Latest CoT

August 16: Moved stop loss up to todays low. Price probably should have launched up today. Instead it was a narrow range 7 day.

August 17: Moved stop to break even.

May 2, 2012: Closed the trade — did not track it and don’t want to look it up right now 🙂

July 5, 2011

Silver in less backwardation

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:50 am

Don’t know what to make of the comparison other than I don’t notice anything actionable at the moment.

Only 30 cent differential between front and most forward month.

June 20, 2011

Silver backwardation update – not much changed in the past week.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:34 am

May 12, 2011

Silver backwardation update: Lower prices not assuaging near term demand.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:13 am

Turk – Tipping Point to Trigger $ Destruction & Hyperinflation But here is the really frightening thing Eric, 40% of what the US government is spending is coming from borrowed money… When asked if he remembers other countries with 40% shortfalls in their spending Turk replied, “Oh yeah, Zimbabwe, Argentina in 1991, and the Weimar Republic in Germany in the early 1920’s (all resulted in hyperinflation).

No crazy changes in Comes silver partial backwardation. LBMA backwardation:

May 4, 2011

Great theory: “They wanted silver to look parabolic and then fail in order to scare everyone off.”

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:33 pm

The silver “blow off” did not look right while I was watching the tape, but I could not articulate why and so waited until someone like Jesse and friends could:

Here is an interesting theory on the recent silver run up and correction which someone pointed out to me this evening from a chatboard… there was no denying that the parabolic increase was just dodgy… I really believe that the core of the problem involves the deliverable ounces at CME, a big looming problem…

Wall Street Bear Discussion Board: Here is what I think happened, the Commercials have been decreasing their net short in this latest runup, in other words, they helped it go up by covering short and going long. I believe they were doing that to accentuate the rise and to be able to liquidate their profits and accentuate the drop and cover short when the spec longs gave up. They wanted silver to look parabolic and then fail in order to scare everyone off.

Well it looks like the large specs have held tight, the COT report on Friday should show that the large long specs increased longs and are more net long while the commercials are more net short. Yesterday it was the commercials selling at a discount to the spec longs who just soaked up all the selling the commercials could do.

So today they raised margins again because I bet that the OI didn’t drop much today if they had to raise margins again.

This is setting up for a huge snap back rally if my conjecture is close to correct.

What the tape felt like to me was “them” letting price have some reigns on purpose to reach 50 sooner / too fast (although at the time I did not know what the price target was, and was not able to capitalize on it either). But price idd not really want to go up like that so “they” would goose it. Rather crafty if true 🙂

Also, I really wonder why all the physical silver is just not gone. It would only take a small panic and a few wires to clear out all the major dealers. Mr. Tulving, one of the biggest dealers, reportedly has just 450,000 ozs — that’s $18 million including shipping! Why is it still there? Don’t people understand what’s going on?

US dollar index setting up for a small panic?

Since silver backwardation is growing shouldn’t price be rising to meet the demand?

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:35 am

Actually, as price is dropping, backwardation (near term demand) is growing.

May 3, 2011

Mr Ferguson really put things in perspective tonight: 6,600 contracts clears out the Comex

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:31 pm

Smells Like Capitulation (updated)33,000,000 [registered] ounces means the Comex only has enough silver to settle just 6,600 contracts. That, my friends, is the financial equivalent of blood in the water…

Yes the eligible metal could supposedly get the electronic warrants. Well then, why don’t they!?!?! I think an entity can only take a maximum delivery of 1,500 contracts. So now 4.4 entities could spend just $310,000,000 each and take all the registered silver. So the fate of the Comex, partially due to the “regulators” seemingly abdicating all responsibilities, is just a few whims away of a few entities with decent wealth, from being a smoking crater filled with people saying, “Well gee, how could this happen?”

Just watching this chart and waiting for the SLW:Silver ratio to make a higher low. Meaning that SLW is not dropping as much as silver. Mr. Sprott’s actions of sifting PSLV to silver and silver stocks suggest to me that possibly silver stocks will lead the metal after the correction.

April 26, 2011

Silver still in backwardation. Just waiting for the correction to end.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:34 am

James Turk: The important point Eric is that silver is still in backwardation. I mentioned to you previously in the KWN blog piece on April 1st of this year that if silver remained in backwardation when we neared the $50 area it would be a truly extraordinary event. Here we are with silver touching $49 in Asian trading this morning, yet it remains in a 63 cent backwardation from spot to December 2015.

I can’t stress enough how significant that event is. Over the past three months the price of silver has nearly doubled, yet the backwardation has not disappeared. Markets are not designed to work that way, the higher price is supposed to entice people to sell their physical and hold dollars instead. I think the market is quite clearly sending the signal that people would rather hold silver instead of paper money.

The bottom line is that as long as silver remains in backwardation, price declines will be short-lived, it’s also telling us that silver has not yet reached a top on this move.

In fact, LBMA is going into backwardation again indicating that significantly rising silver prices have

Comex partial backwardation is alive and well.

Starting to notice that SLW calls are coming down in price a fair bit. hmmm… Curious if SLW might go down to 35.50 ish briefly and then the far out of the money SEP calls might be attractive??

Hows the dollar index? Surely it popped up a lot when “real money” dropped yesterday?? Well, no. It went down.

April 20, 2011

Silver backwardation update — it’s increasing…

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:47 am

– US dollar index is pathetic. Down about 1%, hanging in the wind.

Eric Sprott: “Expect The Gold To Silver Ratio To Hit Single Digits: The fact remains that most commentators have failed to grasp the monetary shifts that silver is signaling today, and in doing so they’ve failed to appreciate just how high it could actually go.

Notice how the lease months are pinching together? I suppose one major item to note is that, so far, the higher silver price is not really satiating demand.

The Comex partial backwardation is growing too.

Here the full LBMA SIFO

Price is rather extended, and yet even with some decent relative volume, very small dips are met with buying.

References
+ Silver backwardation update for April 12th

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