Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

August 3, 2012

Ten year treasury debt finally topped, and dollar heading down?

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:22 am

– Broke a 4 month trend line.
– Traded below yesterday’s bar that rose from the short term EMA support with good volume.
+ The gov and banksters does not want higher debt rates.
– RSI’s pointing lower.

UPP also broke a trend line.

July 18, 2012

Eurodollars – Extending Peter L. Brandt’s: “$144 trillion per year futures market is fixed — right under the nose of the CFTC”

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:39 pm

99.99% don’t know that Eurodollars are U.S.-dollar denominated deposits at foreign banks or foreign branches of American banks. By locating outside of the United States, eurodollars escape regulation by the Federal Reserve Board.

– The Eurodollars futures contract (interest rate, not forex market) has historically been the world’s largest futures contract
– In 2011, Eurodollar futures traded 577 million contracts
– Each contract represents a Eurodollar Time Deposit having a principal value of USD $1,000,000 with a three-month maturity
– The underlying value of the Eurodollar futures contracts traded in 2011 equals about $144 TRILLION (based on an average price of 99.50)
– Unlike most futures markets, the Eurodollars are not settled by delivery, but rather use a cash settlement.
– The cash settlement is based on the Libor rate — a rate that we all now know is bogus and manipulated.

Bottom line is this — Eurodollar futures are a $144 trillion per year market being fixed right under the nose of the CFTC, the same U.S. government regulator that allowed the MF Global and now the PFG grand larcenies to occur… Peter L Brandt

Current open interest is 7,867,261 contracts.

Margin to control 1 contract is only about $450, partly due to low volatility.

So right now the outstanding notional value is around 7.8 trillion FRN’s and is being controlled by (very) roughly 10 billion. (This number could change drastically if eurodollars got a bit volatile.)

For comparison, M2 is supposedly about 10 trillion.

Related: Fix HFT, naked shorting, position limits, margin determination, insider trading, and questionable floats, with a few simple non-arbitrary rules.

January 25, 2012

Not a great time to go long TLT (update1, Feb 18)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:52 pm

February 18:

December 11, 2011

3rd WARNING: If you still have “money” in *ANY* accounts, consider this… (update 1, June 2)

Filed under: Editorials — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:05 am

Added December 19th: Private Property Now Subject To Seizure

This sort of action turns the entire premises of private property and bailment on its ear! NO — and I repeat NO — property held allegedly for your benefit by any third party anywhere is safe under this “theory” of the bankruptcy trustee. Yes, this includes something so simple as the money on deposit in your bank account.

Added December 13: Martin Armstrong Where To Keep Your Money After Mf Global

Bottom line is if you don’t have physical possession, you have, at best, a well meaning promise with looming counterparty risk.

The Denials Begin: Interactive Brokers Is First To Claim It Has Not Engaged In Commingling Rehypothecation

MF Global – the contagion is at your door knocking

The Gold “Rehypothecation” Unwind Begins: HSBC Sues MF Global Over Disputed Ownership Of Physical Gold

Martin Armstrong: Trading wiTh oTher people’s money The Collapse of the – WORLD Financial System Why MF Global is worse than Europe

Why The UK Trail Of The MF Global Collapse May Have “Apocalyptic” Consequences For The Eurozone, Canadian Banks, Jefferies And Everyone Else

Bank Of America Forces Depositors To Backstop Its $53 Trillion Derivative Book To Prevent A Few Clients From Departing The Bank

MF Global woes ripple into heartland Dennis Magnuson is a farmer, not a gambler. He trades in the commodity futures markets hoping to stabilize the cost of feed for the pigs he sells. The Austin, Minn., resident said he would never put his money into bonds issued by European countries flirting with economic collapse.

But the now-collapsed MF Global Holdings Ltd. may have done that for him.

We No Longer Have A Justice System In The US …Now of course Mr. Corzine is entitled to the presumption of innocence and he is entitled to a trial before being pronounced guilty, but the law on this point is clear: Executives, the CEO and CFO in particular, are required under Sarbanes-Oxley to factually know about matters such as this and they are required to attest to that knowledge — and the presence of appropriate and sufficient risk controls under penalty of felony indictment.

It appears that Mr. Corzine has admitted in front of a Congressional Committee that he does not know, and therefore this appears to be a prima-facie admission that he is in direct violation of this law.

If this is not dealt with on an expeditious fashion and the law is not enforced you have just seen proof on national television that there is no longer a rule of law in this nation of any substance…

Related:
WARNING 2: If you still have “money” in futures accounts or brokerage accounts, WHY?

June 2: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. has returned roughly $600 million that was ensnared [stolen] at the bank when MF Global Holdings Ltd. collapsed in October… I am now comfortable having small amounts of capital at the better brokerages. It took awhile, but it appears it is a hassle to steal others’ accounts.

October 23, 2011

US Treasury and banksters considers new debt security (new fraudulent way to steal money)

Filed under: Editorials — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 4:53 pm

The US Treasury and Wall Street dealers are set to discuss whether to introduce a new debt security to help finance the country’s mounting budget deficit in the coming years.”

Transaltion: Lets see how much more debt the debt slaves can be suckered into.

“…the possible introduction of floating-rate notes… the payment to investors from floating-rate notes would go up or down as the Federal Reserve changed short-term interest rates. That could make them attractive to investors who think that Treasury yields have hit a floor and are set to rise in the coming years….”

Translation: We already know we can’t raise rates much if at all or else we can’t pay the interest without drama. We have even said so for the next 2 years. This is just one more debt to try to sell to the slaves that we don’t intend to repay.

July 25, 2011

Eurodollars – potential short at potential resistance (update 1, July 27)

Filed under: Futures Trades, Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:25 pm

Sell stop is 98.30 ish. Stop loss around 98.38.

– The fundamentals are horrid.
– Could be at a bit of resistance.
– Volume is declining. Actually this might not be all that significant. There was good volume off the near term EMA (yellow), and volume is now lessoning with the correction.
+ The gov will never let it crash, if possible.
+ EMA’s all still moving up.
– If the near term RSI (yellow) starts down, that would make a nice short signal with the mid term RSI (magenta) under a declining longer term RSI (blue).

Really the main reason for the trade, and a small position at that, is the possible small risk at resistance.

July 27: Order cancelled.

June 8, 2011

Debt, and a caution on the markets

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:04 pm

+ The charts are simply wonderful! Zero Hedge: Guest Post: Death By Debt

– 2 good traders have mentioned cautions.

SilverGoldSilver: Warning: That which I have feared has come upon me “I’ll stick my neck on the line and say it again: they need a reason for QE3, like TARP in 2008. I am suspect of a major downside move in the markets… I am assuming the move will be swift and brutal. I’m not saying it will be tomorrow, but with no clear indication of more printing, be ready for the carnage.”

Xiphos Trading: Hate to say it, but market looks setup for a mini crash I think into Armstrong’s turn date of June 13-14th… Sabre: overnight risk is ASTRONOMICAL IMO

Inverted put call ratio for 9 months.

Inverted put call ratio for 3 years.

April 19, 2011

The US dollar index is very weak

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:00 am

April 5, 2011

Death of the dollar: Even children don’t want pennies

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 1:04 pm

Not too many posts for the next few days as I am otherwise occupied…

At a fountain some kids were fishing out the change. 3 out of 3 kids would take out everything except pennies and garbage. They even marveled over a 2 Euro coin. The metaphor is that all the paper money has dissolved down the drain.

Kids are smart…

March 24, 2011

Update: Monetary base +180% and silver +170%. (corrected April 26)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:32 pm

Edit April 26: The Ticker Guy pointed out I did not know what I was talking about. I assumed I was talking about coins, cash and deposit accounts, but:

St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (BASENS) The sum of currency in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, deposits of depository financial institutions at Federal Reserve Banks, and an adjustment for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories. This series is a spliced chain index; see Anderson and Rasche (1996a,b, 2001, 2003).

For the past 2 months, BASENS averaged +4% every 2 weeks and silver averaged +8% every 2 weeks.

Say it’s not a coincidence and silver keep rising on average 8% every 2 weeks …
In 1 month silver could be about 44 frn’s/oz.
In 2 months silver could be about 51 frn’s/oz.
In 3 months silver could be about 60 frn’s/oz.
In 6 months silver could be about 94 frn’s/oz.

Plus, the chart of both lines seems to be smooth and smoothly correlated now — meaning that possibly the system has become locked together — meaning that possibly the music is about to stop. When there is no more room for the normal give and take, lookout, pressures might be high all around and something might snap.

In other words, the fed (not federal, nor reserve, just debt) now HAS to keep printing, AND can’t stop, and silver reflects this.

As Adjusted Monetary Base Rises By Half A Trillion In 2011, Treasury Runs Out Of Debt Ceiling Delay Measures

References
+ Monetary base +170% and silver +160%. Coincidence?
+ Did a 140% rise in the Monetary Base lead to a 150% rise in silver?
+ St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (BASENS)

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