Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 23, 2012

25 prominent hedge funds position’s on gold and silver hold no surprises: No silver, 3% of positions gold related and typically small.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:25 am

Hedge Fund Wisdom just released a free 2nd quarter 2012 issue. The average fund had about 45 positions (min 9, max 152).

Most funds had no position in gold stocks. New and existing gold positions were mentioned about 26 times. Other than John Paulson who reported 28% in GLD and 9% in AU, the rest of any fund’s specific position maxed out at 3-4%, with many < 1%. GLD, which is rumored to have re-hypothicated "assets", had 6 mentions. ABX, ANV, and GDX each had 3 mentions. There were 7 mentions of closing gold positions. Roughly only 3% of overall positions were related to gold.

Silver is even better with just 3 mentions, ALL sells.

Won’t this revert to the mean someday?

September 19, 2012

CAD – Current COT Commercial pattern might suggest CAD, silver, and gold to rise for about 2 months.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:19 am

September 9, 2012

Silver and gold – Long if a buy stop triggers near yesterday’s highs. +103% +130% (update 7, Oct 21)

Filed under: +Over +101%, Futures Trades, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:00 pm

August 8
First, you might like to read Peter Brandt’s Should the inevitable chart breakout in precious metals be trusted?

Tight stop loss a bit below yesterday’s low.

+ Silver, looking to go long SIZ12 on a stop

Update August 9 2012: In gold at 1619.5 (margin $9,100) Edit: Stop loss around 1593. Lowering silver buy stop to 28.27 ish.

Update August 20 2012: Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46. Will update past stopped out positions later.

Update August 22 2012: Stopped out of gold long at 1593. -30%. Long SIZ12 at 28.27. Stop loss now at 28.38. I should have just bought long dated calls in the first place.

This chart highlights a favored set up of a buy stop on a narrow range 7 bar with support nearby.

Bean oil just showcased another set up.

Update 4, September 9:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, currently 5.15.
Long SIZ12 at 28.27, currently 33.69. Stop loss at about 31.80 because the minor test of 32 held.

+ Silver: 4 reasons to be long
+ The obvious and GARGANTUAN silver opportunity

Update 5, September 30:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, currently 5.7.
Long SIZ12 at 28.27, currently 34.40. Stop loss at about 32.25.

Update 6, October 3:
Attempting to add another long silver position near a 34.91 buy stop. Stop loss is a little loose at 34.15 ish. Actually I decided to make a new post: Silver – attempting to add to longs.

Update 7, October 21:
Long Dec 29 silver call at 1.46, stopped out at 3.4. +130%
Long SIZ12 from 28.27, stopped out near 32.25. +103%
I paid tooooo close attention to “news” instead of bars and so left too much on the table. That always costs a lot!

November 12, 2011

WARNING: If you still have “money” in futures account or brokerage accounts, well, WHY?

Filed under: Editorials — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:56 pm

Gerald Celente: My MF Global Gold Positions Have Been Confiscated by the CME I got a call Monday by my broker, that I needed to meet a margin call for my gold positions. I said what are you talking about? I’ve been playing this thing for a long time. All I do is I keep my profits in my account. Well the profits aren’t there anymore, and neither is the account. They took all my money and they put it in the hands of a trustee. I said are you kidding me or what? They’re not trading for me, this is my own money in my own account! It’s my money! No, it’s not. Who decided this? Oh, the CME group.

If Mr. Celente can be stolen from and stiffed, unless something changes, the same thing can happen to anyone.

Peter Brandt: I have been in the futures business since the mid 1970s. The industry always spoke about how client money was protected by the independent clearing corporations of the exchanges and by the segregated account banking arrangements… This apparently false assumption of protection was reaffirmed in 2005 with the collapse of Refco due to reputed fraudulent activity by its CEO. While general creditors of Refco recovered slightly more than 30 cents on the dollar with the dust settled, Refco’s segregated account holders had full recovery – after some time delay… The failure of MF Global”s segregated account to be made whole would be the biggest financial disaster since 1929 and would spell the end of the futures industry as we know it. Folks in the financial industry should take this matter seriously — very seriously. Do not underestimate the importance of this matter.

I CONSIDER THIS A SHOT ACROSS THE BOW. My account is now at a bare minimum until this situation improves drastically and stabilizes. I’m not holding my breath.

Many people will just sit, watch, rationalize and deny — and don’t ACT until it is too late. The leverage is very high. First there are smoldering areas (rumors), then puffs of smoke (visible proof), then, unless the sprinklers turn on fast — since there are about 100 smolders — the whole building erupts in flames.

The Tiker Guy offers one way to attempt to protect wealth. MF Global, Risk Management And You I don’t agree with it. It’s all about counterparty risk so why not get precious metals and have no counterparty risk? I don’t care if the buy/sell spread is large. It’s worth not having the risk to me.

+ MF Global allegedly pilfered segregated accounts: Counter party risk back in fashion.
+ Interesting Google Trends for “fake gold, “fake silver”, and “counterparty risk” In fact, an updated chart:

Wanted to add:

MF Global customer $ apparently found Bottom line: The money has apparently been found, but there are many serious questions that remain to be answered. The main question is why segregated funds might have been stolen under the watchful eye (in fact, with the active involvement) of federal regulators. Until this and other questions are answered, the real issue is what will happen next time … and there will be a next time.

November 3, 2011

Charts of JPM’s year to date (October 31) client and house Ag, Au issuing and stopping activity.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:35 pm

This is an update of similar charts from about 2 weeks ago. No major changes in trend. JPM’s clients want metal.

October 21, 2011

Charts of JPM’s year to date client and house Ag, Au issuing and stopping activity.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:28 pm

COMEX & NYMEX Metal Delivery Notices, year to date

Russia cbank says will raise gold share in reserves “We are acquiring huge volumes (of gold),” Ulyukayev told the parliament… the central bank data showed that Russia’s gold and forex reserves, the world’s third largest, rose to $517.7 billion”

Well, could you please flip a measly billion and clear out the COMEX just for fun??

London Trader – Sovereign Silver Buying, Middle-East Shortages I deal in the physical market every day… There is extraordinarily tight supply right now in Asia.  When you order silver there is so little available at these prices, that’s the trouble.  You can order it all day long, but you are going to have to wait for it… As soon as we see a delay in shipments to end users they will race each other to stock up.  This will send the price of silver through the roof and break the backs of the silver shorts.

September 18, 2011

Silver is still a GARGANTUAN opportunity, enhanced by derivatives

Filed under: Editorials — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 2:53 pm

When I looked into it previously (The obvious and GARGANTUAN silver opportunity), the above ground silver to gold ratio ranged from about:

5 to 1 (meaning silver could now be at $350/oz) to
1 to 5 (meaning silver could now be at $9,000/oz)

That is just to reach some sort of equilibrium, today, if the paper supply was exhausted. Then add a dash of monetary panic, which might send gold to $10,000/oz. And silver not overshoot on the ratio itself would be disappointing 😉 So then with gold at $10,000:

5 to 1 (meaning silver could now be at $2,000/oz) to
1 to 5 (meaning silver could now be at $50,000/oz)

People don’t laugh so much anymore at all these high projections. Big numbers are becoming common from credible names:
+ Stephen Leeb – Gold, Minimal Downside, $12,000 Upside
+ Eric Sprott: “Expect The Gold To Silver Ratio To Hit Single Digits”

The US mint has only sold $40,000,000 worth silver eagles this month so far. Money wise, that is absolutely nothing. If the derivatives fail soon, it seems like most US people will be completely surprised and will not know what to do at all.

A bigger question is if these little smolders in metal derivatives will become critical mass for the 465 trillion debt derivatives bomb? I assume that would be completely and nearly instantly unmanageable. Debt derivatives are involved with almost everything, sometimes in very complex ways. A million black swans in a glorious field of unintended consequences.

Tom Stevenson: ETFs have potential to become the next toxic scandal … ETFs are not the cheap and transparent vehicles the marketers would have us believe… When UBS’s $2bn black hole hit the screens on Thursday, no one who read the FSB report was surprised to see the words ETF and rogue trader in the same sentence… A third claim, that ETFs are simple products, may once have been true but it no longer holds water. Many of these funds are now fiendishly complicated and way beyond the comprehension of the individual investors and professionals alike who are buying them. Here are just a few of the reasons why ETFs are not all they are cracked up to be… First, around half of the ETFs in Europe today do not match the index they are designed to track by holding all of its constituent shares. Unlike the plain vanilla “full replication” ETFs which do, 45pc of the market is in the form of so-called “swap-based” ETFs which instead use derivative agreements, often with investment banks, to simulate the performance of the underlying assets.

+ Chart of silver fractional bullion banking suggests silver at $225 to $1,000/oz

September 11, 2011

Considering shorting gold or silver — only for a short heretical time :-) (update 2, Sep 12) +4%, +9%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, +06 to +25%, Long Puts — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:16 pm

(Did you know the origin of “heretic” is ‘able to choose’?)

A longer term look at gold.

A possible downside target could be 1,750 ish.

Great post by Peter Brandt Silver is a cross dresser!

References: Silver, seasonality, SIFO, BASENS comparison, SLW

Sep 12: Long GLD OCT 175 puts at 6.75. Long SLV OCT 39 puts for 2.10.
Sept 12: sold the GLD puts for +4%. There was little leverage in them (I bought them poorly which did not help). It seems better to deploy the money in a different way. I don’t pay much attention to how “expensive” options are. I might look into that. I was also short December gold. That ended up at +8%. I’m impressed gold did not go lower. And SLW is recovering well. In fact too well. Sold the SLV puts for +9%. This whole precious metals correction might just end up being sideways consolidation. And every central bank is printing like crazy.

August 22, 2011

Gold getting mass public attention, inflation adjusted gold chart, the tape.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:02 am

Among Jim Willie’s excellent Hat Trick Letter Issue #89 this shined the most for me (emphasis mine). The disparagement of tangible value from the MSM to sheeple seems to be faltering.

The very popular German tabloid Bild Zeitung is actively urging German people to invest in gold, as the global debt crisis continues to deteriorate and cause turmoil in global markets. The publication is Germany’s #1 selling newspaper, and the best-selling newspaper outside Japan. It has the sixth largest circulation worldwide. Bild wrote, “While the companies listed on stock exchanges have lost about $8 trillion dollars in value over the past 14 days, the price of gold climbed to a record high. While money can be printed, gold reserves are limited. To date some 150,000 tonnes of gold have been mined. Gold is better than cash. While any amount of money can be printed, Gold is limited, [thus making it] one of the safest investments in crisis times.” The mainstream European press does not usually mention gold, but the deepening crisis has prompted the coverage. The nation is acutely aware of hyper-inflation risks, unlike the United States.

This chart from Gold Nears $1,900 – Venezuela Formally Requests Gold Holdings Held By BOE Ship By Sea (hat tip SilverGoldSilver) So, inflation adjusted, gold has been sleeping for 30 years.

I was watching the tape last night in silver and gold. Paper gold demand would just chew though supply. It appeared there were standing buy stops at round numbers which is I think a standard, “buy every new 5 hourly / hourly / 30 min, etc. new high”. Silver looked suppressed and would dip a bit yet paper demand would quickly rebound the price.

August 16, 2011

Possible analogue with April 2011 silver and gold this month.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:21 pm

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