Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 6, 2012

JPM: Sell short stop at around 36.70. (update 1, Sep 6)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:00 am

– Declining volume with rising price for the past 2 months.
– Unable to fill May’s gap.
– Medium term RSI is rolling over and crossing below the longer term RSI.
– Low relative strength: Currently GS is +0.34%, and MS — despite rumors of imminent demise is +1.8%, yet JPM is -0.59%.

The stop loss will be based on a close above about 38.50, not intra day.

Update September 6: Todays strong up move is exactly why I prefer to trade based on a stop. I was itching to short JPM but fortunately waited for price to show the way. I wonder if today’s gap will get filled like the gap about 2 weeks ago?

November 3, 2011

Charts of JPM’s year to date (October 31) client and house Ag, Au issuing and stopping activity.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:35 pm

This is an update of similar charts from about 2 weeks ago. No major changes in trend. JPM’s clients want metal.

October 21, 2011

Charts of JPM’s year to date client and house Ag, Au issuing and stopping activity.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:28 pm

COMEX & NYMEX Metal Delivery Notices, year to date

Russia cbank says will raise gold share in reserves “We are acquiring huge volumes (of gold),” Ulyukayev told the parliament… the central bank data showed that Russia’s gold and forex reserves, the world’s third largest, rose to $517.7 billion”

Well, could you please flip a measly billion and clear out the COMEX just for fun??

London Trader – Sovereign Silver Buying, Middle-East Shortages I deal in the physical market every day… There is extraordinarily tight supply right now in Asia.  When you order silver there is so little available at these prices, that’s the trouble.  You can order it all day long, but you are going to have to wait for it… As soon as we see a delay in shipments to end users they will race each other to stock up.  This will send the price of silver through the roof and break the backs of the silver shorts.

March 17, 2011

Silver update March 17th, rumors about JPM offering premiums, possible extortion

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:31 pm

Not really much change on the COMEX partial backwardation.

JPM COMEX default rumors: I’m still waiting for my 3 contracts to be delivered. I’ve already been offered cash for my 15,000 ounces of silver, which is totally illegal. The COMEX must deliver and I’m now getting brushed off. They told me that I may not be getting my silver delivery, but they’ll give me shares of SLV + a premium of 70%. I have a feeling that after March it’ll be impossible to get the silver at the current price from anyone.

I don’t know if these stories are true or not, but just the fact they keep cropping up, and are very logical is interesting.

It would be normal to tag the yellow rising 34 ema.
+ Closing above the blue 10 ema is bullish.
+ The daily yellow CCI is low enough to turn up.
+ There are now likely 4 stabs below 34 frn’s/oz.

This chart includes after hours trading at 10 pm PST. After hours trading still takes a back seat to COMEX trading so things could very well look different in the morning.

A possibly significant fundamental story is The Ticker Guy’s Nuclear Problem In Japan: Is Obama Partly Responsible? The alleged extortion:

2226: The Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper, quoting a senior official of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, said the US made the offer immediately after the disaster damaged Fukushima No 1 nuclear plant. According to the unnamed senior official, US support was based on dismantling the troubled reactors run by Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) some 250 km (155 miles) northeast of Tokyo. However, the government and TEPCO thought the cooling system could be restored by themselves, the report said.

I don’t know if it’s true, but it’s makes sense in many ways. As many have pointed out, a child could have dumped a bunch of generators on site and hooked them up by now. Veracity aside, this info is apparently getting a bit of visibility in Asia. And everyone knows the US gov needs to have bonds well bid and silver well offered or the music stops. If people get a bit upset about it….

Also, Raymond Merriman’s silver index is suggesting a reversal.

February 7, 2011

JPM wants your gold

Filed under: Editorials — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:41 am

J.P. Morgan Chase said on Monday it would accept physical gold as collateral with its counterparties as a growing number of clients look to use bullion as a hedge against inflation.

That’s the second time JPM said entities could use gold as collateral. What, bonds aren’t good enough anymore? They must be getting desperate. Entities would have to be extremely ignorant of what’s allegedly going on to store gold with JPM.

… initiative would allow its clients to mobilize collateral across borders and trading activities, regardless of the underlying obligation, to extract maximum value and manage risk

How is that any different then what bonds do right now? How does one extract maximum value? How is risk managed when JPM has numerous lawsuits for metals manipulation pending?

I asked Interactive Brokers a few months ago if their liberal “base currency” options could include gold, and they said no. Maybe someday…

December 14, 2010

Talk about JPM, gold, debt? An ironic source

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 1:57 pm

“Finally, in what has become the most famous exchange in the [House Banking and Currency subcommittee 1912 “money trust”] hearings’ thousands of pages of testimony, the two men returned to the question of controlling money and credit.

[Samuel] Untermyer: [vocal critic of the “money trust”, committee counsel] said, “The basis of banking is credit, is it not?”
[JP] Morgan: “Not always. That is an evidence of banking, but it is not the money itself. Money is gold, and nothing else.”

(There was in 1912 a significant difference between actual metal coin and loans represented by paper (banknotes, bonds, bills). When Morgan repeated yet again that money could not be controlled.)

Untermyer: Asked whether credit was not based on money — that is, did not the big New York banks issue loans to certain men and institutions “because it is believed that they have the money back of them?”
Morgan: No sir. It is because people believe in the man.”
Untermyer: “And he might not be worth anything?”
Morgan: With less than perfect regard for grammar: “He might not have anything. I have known a man to come into my office, and I have given him a check for a million dollars when they had not a cent in the world.”
Untermyer: “That is not business?”
Morgan: “Yes, unfortunately, it is. I do not think it is good business, though.”

Untermyer did not, apparently, think much of this answer, for he repeated his proposition: “Is not commercial credit based primarily on money or property?”
Morgan: “No sir; the first thing is character.”
Untermyer: “Before money or property?”
Morgan: “Before money or property or anything else. Money cannot buy it” — and he elaborated, after a few more questions — “because a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom.”
Morgan: American Financier, by Jean Strouse

February 16, 2009

Does GLD have gold?

Filed under: Editorials — Tags: , , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:53 pm

Jim Sinclair first asked “Where Do All The Gold ETFs Get Their Bullion From?” (Some discussion.)

James Turk sums up the work of Bill Murphy and Nick Laird: “How can a 150-tonne increase in demand for metal in recent weeks translate into such a relatively small increase in the price of gold?”

COMEX’s gold:
2.7 moz regestered (available for delivery)
5.7 moz eligible (just in storage)

Supposedly 4.8 moz was put into GLD in the past month-ish. Where did it come from? In the past almost nobody would care. What if people decided to find out what was going on and what would they do if they figured out it was mostly “paper gold” (futures contracts) at best and nothing at worst?

It would be really interesting to see how GLD might be unwound. If the shareholders did not get stuck with zero (likely), they would likely demand delivery, or just sell and attempt to buy physical gold. Either way the cat would be out of the bag.

Then add Ted Butler’s latest post: In the last month 2 US banks (likely GS and JPM) accounted for more than 100% of all total short selling in silver. They are currently short about 30,000 contracts or 150 moz. That’s more than 20% of total annual world mine production.

It would only take 5,000 contracts ($900 million) to acquire all the registered silver. That is 0.001% of the most recent bailout.

Okay, I will just says it, even though I don’t believe it myself 🙂

Apparently, there used to be about 15 times more aboveground silver than aboveground gold. But, apparently, now aboveground gold is 5 times more abundant than aboveground silver.

So if silver is remonetized and gold is around $2,000 / oz, that implies silver might be trading at $10,000 / oz.

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