Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 9, 2012

LBMA SIFO from November 2006 to September 2012 (update1, Dec 2012)

Filed under: Systems — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 3:16 pm

The last update a year ago noted:

James Turk’s Sep 17 2011 trading comments: …the LBMA’s GOFO is no longer a reliable rate. I think the banks are just making it up to paint a picture that has some semblance of normalcy. But things in Europe are anything but normal. Abnormal relationships in short-term currency vs. gold interest rates make that point clear.

Turns out this was correct. So I put zero weight on SIFO. But, here is the chart for the record. LBMA current stats.

Update December 2012: Guest Post: “Smelly Smoke Signals” by NN-L

Our pal, Ned, has cranked out a very interesting piece regarding the recent suspension, by the LBMA, of the publication of silver forward rates (SIFO)… The most interesting and compelling part of all this is the timing. The LBMA decided to suspend SIFO reporting at the close of business on Friday, November 2. At that exact same moment, some newly-created measures of backwardation such as Sandeep Jaitly’s “Basis/Co-Basis” were literally screaming of extreme backwardation and physical tightness.

Turk – The LBMA Is Moving To Cover Up Silver Manipulation

“The reason they (the LBMA) gave is they said it is just an indication and you can’t really trade at that price anyway. So what that does is prove the point that I’ve been making, that these are artificial rates which are just there to paint the tape and to mislead people into thinking the silver market is actually in a normal contango. But in reality it (silver) is actually in backwardation.”

Related
+ The last LBMA SIFO update for a while

September 19, 2011

The last LBMA SIFO update for a while

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:24 am

More recent post: LBMA SIFO from November 2006 to September 2012

James Turk’s Sep 17 trading comments: …the LBMA’s GOFO is no longer a reliable rate. I think the banks are just making it up to paint a picture that has some semblance of normalcy. But things in Europe are anything but normal. Abnormal relationships in short-term currency vs. gold interest rates make that point clear.

I assume that goes for SIFO too. I’m not interested in keeping up with it anymore.

September 10, 2011

Silver, seasonality, SIFO, BASENS comparison, SLW

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:37 pm

General silver seasonality suggests a turning point mid September…

Yet the cycles don’t seem very bullish to me. Except 2001 which helped mark the current overall bull market.

No more LBMA backwardation. (Still $1.44 partial backwardation in comex silver.)

Daily silver chart
– Rather big down volume relative to up volume the past few days.
– Mid term RSI below longer term RSI.
+- Overall seems a bit neutral to me.

Opps, I meant to say if price drops, not dips, below the hammer. That would also be near the rising channel. I really don’t expect too much of a drop, if one even happens, since the open interest is so low. Maybe down to 37, the rising magenta mid term EMA.

SLW
– apologies for chart clutter — just wanted to highlight 2 targets.
– Seems like all the RSI’s are rolling over.

August 14, 2011

Long December silver. Updates on partial backwardation, M1 and M2, and seasonality (update 3, May 2)

Filed under: Systems — Tags: , , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:13 am

Buy stop: 39.25
Stop loss: 37.80

+/- Weekly RSI at fulcrum point?
+ NR7 bar on near term EMA and Bollinger Band support.
– Low volume.
+ EMA’s heading up.
+ Seasonality likely bottoming.

Money supplies being inflated:

Although a low risk seasonal turn point is near the end of the month, a closer turning put is near. Worth the risk to be a bit early.

Turd Ferguson: A Look At The Latest CoT

August 16: Moved stop loss up to todays low. Price probably should have launched up today. Instead it was a narrow range 7 day.

August 17: Moved stop to break even.

May 2, 2012: Closed the trade — did not track it and don’t want to look it up right now 🙂

August 1, 2011

LBMA silver in partial backwardation, again.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:45 am

July 27, 2011

General silver backwardation update

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:55 am

+ A Short History of US Credit Defaults
+ Xiphos_Trading: Trader just did it 22K more times: Sabre and I love this trade: $GLD – Gold Aug. 167/175 and Aug. 168/176 Call Spreads Each Bought 20,000X today….that would be some kind of move….

Okay I’m a tad slow:

July 15, 2011

Silver – general update, no more SIFO backwardation – 5 charts

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:47 pm

Raymond Merriman Comments for the Week Beginning July 18, 2011 The first message has to do with heliocentric Mercury entering Sagittarius, July 19-31… Traders like Sagittarius because it also correlates with large price moves, especially in commodities like Gold and Silver. But what causes the big price moves in commodities? Usually an exaggeration of something that is not quite right in the world, like an impending default on your credit. Thus everyday in which an agreement on the debt ceiling limit is not forthcoming, the hysteria will likely increase, reflected proportionately in the size of the moves up in commodities and down in equities. Of course, there is the possibility that an agreement could be made, in which case the opposite happens in large price swings: stocks go sharply up and commodities come sharply down…

Weekly old silver ratio suggest silver to out preform gold for a few weeks.

Recent LBMA SIFO.

Full SIFO history.

July 5, 2011

Silver in less backwardation

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:50 am

Don’t know what to make of the comparison other than I don’t notice anything actionable at the moment.

Only 30 cent differential between front and most forward month.

June 20, 2011

Silver backwardation update – not much changed in the past week.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:34 am

June 5, 2011

LBMA backwardation update and all 3 12 month SIFO’s compared

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:26 pm

Apologies the chart is so busy. Looking at ways to present data more meaningfully. The most recent backwardation is the thin orange line.

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