Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

October 13, 2012

WPRT – Long if buy stop triggered. -5% (update 1, Oct 21)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Stock — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:01 am

Caterpillar… soon, they’ll be powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG)… To expedite LNG-powered product development, Caterpillar has teamed up with LNG-engine-maker Westport Innovations (WPRT)… Here’s what Frank Curzio wrote about Westport…

Sales are expected to grow north of 50% annually over the next five years. The company projects profitability by 2014. But that could happen sooner as more trucking fleets save millions of dollars a year in fuel costs by switching their engines over to natural gas.

+ Primarily liking the RSI configuration.
+ Declining volume this past week.
+ Tight stop loss. (I’m getting done with loose stop losses.)

Update October 1: Stopped out -5%. The possible short term inflection point resolved downward. Now the shorter EMA’s are firmly heading down.

September 21, 2012

NGX12 – Selling NOV puts. +91% (update 2, Oct 4)

Filed under: +76 to +100%, Short Puts — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:26 am

Selling NOV 2.8 puts for 0.079

Update 1, October 3
+ Natural Gas — Now this is what a bottom looks like

The option is currently worth 0.010. It’s simple to close the position soon since the the bulk of profit is already done.

Update 2, October 4: Officially closed, +91%.
+ An Update on the Biggest Long-Term Trend in the Market Today

February 27, 2011

Crude and natural gas commercials and large traders are significantly past 5 year extremes

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:29 pm

The commercials are about 150% as short as ever in the past 5 years. Rarely are commercials on the losing side of a major move. But when they are, they have to trade large and that can supposedly really move a market.

And natural gas is just the opposite. Definitely time to buy every dip (or sell puts). How far can the funds keep shorting? Price is about 37% away from the September 2009 low of about 2.50, and 250% away from the June 2008 high of about 13.50. Commercials are very long, and natty is near the price of production (and from what I hear, storage too).

References
+ UNG – time to sell some more puts (paper trade)
+ Bought March natural gas due to very long lower candle wick +0%
+ Sell UNG natural gas puts +17%

February 25, 2011

UNG – time to sell some more puts (paper trade) +42%

Filed under: +26 to +50%, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:04 am

Sold March 6 puts for 0.70.

+ Hammer at past support.
+ Volume decreasing during decline.
+ Weekly CCI turning up.
+ Daily CCI above weekly CCI, but still low.

References
+ Bought March natural gas due to very long lower candle wick +0%
+ Sell UNG natural gas puts +17%

March 2: Opps, learned something:

WHY WE AVOID THIS POPULAR ETF [UNG] Back in September, we called this fund “The World’s Worst ETF.” The performance chart below shows why. As you can see, natural gas (the blue line) has gained around 40% since striking a bottom in mid-2010. Hamstrung by its futures strategy, UNG (the black line) has lost investors 40% of their money during the same time! Only Wall Street could build a vehicle that generates fees while investors lose money on an asset rising in price.

If you want to “get long gas,” stick with hoarding undeveloped or income-paying gas reserves.

On a month to month basis, it’s not the end of the world, but better to short puts with futures, or ECA.

March 18: Covered, +42%. UNG’s Death Knell Has Been Sounded via the 8K Filing

January 31, 2011

Bought March natural gas due to very long lower candle wick +0%

Filed under: +0 to +5%, Futures Trades — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:29 am

Bought at 4.37.
Stop loss around 4.24.

+ Hammer candle poking into 170 EMA support and trend line support.
+ CCI’s configuration is very bullish and suggests price going to at least 4.76.

The big gap at the lower left in prices is just where the contract rolled over.

References:
Sell UNG natural gas puts

Feb 2: Exited at 4.38 +0%.
– I’m surprised price has not gone higher.
– The falling 34 EMA is acting as resistance.
– Weekly CCI starting to drop below monthly CCI.
– Daily CCI seems to be sluggishly going up. Not that big a deal since price is essentially in a large consolidation. But a lower risk position is likely to be short puts.
– I wanted to use the margin elsewhere.

Feb 3: It appears price is rolling over, or at least not going up.
+ Time to be flat, free up margin.
+ Don’t be sitting with a drawdown.
+ Weekly CCI is headed down. Price could easily drop to 4.24 or even retest recent lows.

Feb 5:

It’s one of the clearest trends on Earth today… In the first 11 months of 2010, China imported 30% more natural gas than the same period in 2009. India’s natural gas demand is also soaring.

January 28, 2011

Sell UNG natural gas puts +17%

Filed under: +06 to +25%, Short Puts — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:20 am

Sold UNG Feb 6 puts for $0.29.

A very simple and safe trade is selling puts on commodities that are near the cost of production — or when everyone says there is a huge supply. Prices can dip lower for a short while, but unless the world blows up they will rise again some day: very limited downside. The only commodity right now that fits that is natural gas. And the commercials are net long.

Brian Hunt via DailyWealth” The secret to earning safe, high rates of commodity income

+ Monthly CCI is trending up from a low.
+ Weekly CCI above monthly CCI.
+ Daily CCI seems to be turing up while price has support on the lower Bollinger Band.
– 170 EMA still heading down, but not too big a deal if price is at commodity production lows.
+/- 34 EMA is flat.
+ Commercials very net long.

References: Buy March natural gas

Feb 3: Covered at 0.24 +17% Half the reason this trade was closed was to show even when selling puts, and price falls near the original selling point, the puts can be covered at a profit. Using time.

The other reasons are listed at the bottom of the natural gas long trade that was closed yesterday. (Price likely to go down for a bit.)

January 9, 2011

Buy March natural gas +0%

Filed under: -0 to -4%, Futures Trades, Mistakes — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:34 am

Buy March QG on a stop around 4.425.
Stop loss around 4.3.
Sell target around 4.66.

– Seasonals are not supportive. So this will be a short term trade.
+ Testing a rising 34 EMA with a hammer. A rather strong signal.
+ A lot of green bars leading up to the correction.
+ A close above the blue 5 EMA is positive.
+ Holy Grail pattern: weekly CCI dipped while Monthly CCI is rising.
+ Possibly, the same pattern is forming with the daily and weekly CCI’s.
+ Everybody and their guppy is saying how natty supplies are huge.
– The big red volume bar 2 days back.
+ COT commercials pretty bullish:

UPDATES:
Jan 10th: Order not triggered, even though the “hi” is listed above the stop price. Hmmm… Just leaving order as is. Price has dropped 4 days in a row. The last time there were 4 days down or more was in August in a strong downtrend. Getting time for at least a bounce? Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com says: “Accuweather show (11th Jan) that a major “collision” of storms will give severe deluges in New England Tue 11th/Wed 12th.” Could this boost demand of natty??

Jan 11th: Now long from 4.425.
Jan 13th: Moved stop loss up to under todays lows: 4.38.
Jan 18th: Stop triggered and filled at 4.42.
Jan22: Was a mistake to move stop loss above 34 EMA.
+ Monthly CCI rising.
+ Weekly CCI above monthly CCI.
+ 34 EMA rising.
+ Everyone and their pet frog says the cosmos is drowning in too much natty.

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