Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

September 19, 2012

ACOM – Trying long again -8% (update 2, Oct 22)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Stock, Mistakes — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:38 pm

+ Weekly has a large channel.
– Daily has price trading below the red up trend line.

Buy stop around 31.50.
Stop loss around 28.90

Related:
+ ACOM and DVA: long if buy stops triggered. +1%, -3%

Update 1, October 11: I think this was a bad trade — I was trying too hard and too bullish with thinking that with every central bank in the solar system printing, everything will go up. Likely true, but it will take time. Few seem to understand this. Another lesson in “trade the bars, not my stary eyes”. Price is at support — almost time for another try at long, but the NYSI is trending down.

Update 2, October 22: Just to come full circle…

September 14, 2012

ACOM and DVA: long if buy stops triggered. +1%, -3% (update 4, Sept 14)

Filed under: +0 to +5%, -0 to -4%, Long Stock — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:30 pm

August 30, 2012
This indicator suggests tomorrow is a low risk time to got long stocks for a short term bounce.

But since the Summation Index is toppy, use tight stops and get out too soon.

ACOM
+ An NR8 even though the broad market had a down day.
+ Short term RSI crossed over medium term RSI.
– Medium term RSI still heading down.
+ – Depending on the source 17 (finviz)30 (yahoo)% of float is short.
EDIT: NASDAQ indicates a short ratio of about 16 days to cover as of August 15.

So buy on a stop around 31 with a stop loss around 30.45.

DVA
+ Price could have dropped a lot today, but didn’t.
– A fair amount of red volume bars.

Buy stop around 97.37. Stop loss around 95.45.

Update 1, September 1: Long ACOM at about 31.02 and DVA at 97.40.
– Neither stock went up much at all.
– Low volume on both stocks even though stocks in general had decent volume.

Update 2, September 5: Moving DVA stop to around 98.15.

Update 3, September 11: Stopped out yesterday at about 98.10. +1%.

Price is kind of weak:
– The spike up 4 days ago saw price close in the lower half. (Should have sold half right then.)
– Filled gap yet kept going down.
– Tested short term EMA (yellow) and is, so far, under the EMA.
– Finally bounced, so far, off the minor down trend line.
– Short term RSI (yellow) has some more room to decline.

Update 4, September 14: Stopped out of ACOM for a -3% loss.

May 8, 2011

Articles, silver and stock market charts…

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 2:11 pm

Biggest market rigger is government itself, by Chris Powell: Anti-competitive as its activity is, OPEC’s formation a half century ago was only a defensive response to the rigging of the currency markets by Western central banks and particularly by the U.S. Treasury Department and Federal Reserve, which were manipulating the value of the world reserve currency, the dollar, the international means of payment for oil, long before OPEC began to try to manipulate the oil price.

Hmmm. Did not know that. Mr Powell goes on to note, “The second problem is that there are always speculators in all major markets.” Take the nebulous evil speculators to extremes. If the corn market was only 1% speculators and 99% commercials, the commercials could not hedge and this would allow significant price swings that farmers, Kellogg, and cereal buyers would have to deal with. Then entities would stock up when prices are low and forgo when prices are high on a monthly basis. If the corn market was 99% speculators and 1% commercials, the commercials could hedge and down line prices would be rather stable. “Speculators” come in all varieties: long or short price, long or short volatility, spreaders, wise, foolish, etc. All those differing activities tend to dampen wild price swings. Why did corn hit all time highs in 2008? Who was the big disruptor?? Gov forced ethanol.

The Silver Crash of 2011? by Martin Armstrong: We have two primary possibilities for a low shaping up on the horizon. WE could create that spike low and BOTTOM precisely on June 13th/14th… If we drift lower into the final weeks of May, then we can see a rally for the week of June 13th. That will not be real good. This could set the stage for a decline especially if we close year-end below $28… The force of this decline is encouraging. The faster it comes down, the shorter the duration: remember 1987, 1929-32. This could lead to a marginal bounce into the last weeks of May, and from there silver will turn down into the June 13th target… Anytime a market doubles like this in the last few months going into a high, it is the kiss of death.

Wondering if there is not a small bounce up (0.5 to 4 days?) before kissing he magenta 170 EMA.

Gold miner bullish percent has plenty of room to drop.

Waiting to se if the SLW : silver ratio tests support with a higher low.

Stock insiders are selling at a greater pace than last November.

Weekly NYSE Summation index is making lower highs. So probably not a great time to go long stocks. (Could be an opportunity to short some stocks for a swing trade.)

March 27, 2011

Possible CNQ, MPAA, and PCH trades

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:14 pm

Might be looking to sell puts on CNQ, MPAA, SOLR and in the money puts on PCH. Opps, scratch SOLR — insiders have sold 99.4% of their shares. The price might still go up for a while, but that big red flag adds a lot of risk on face value. Insiders are buying PCH.

This chart seems to be a good rule of thumb right now.

And the $NYSI index seems to be turing up with a little room to run.

February 5, 2011

Outlook for February’s 2nd week (fixed)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:08 pm

James Turk summery: Anyway you look at it, last week was a very positive one for the precious metals. The big news is the upside breakout above 3.5% in the yield of 10-year T-notes. With rising commodity prices across the board, people around the world are increasingly recognizing that inflation is getting worse. Higher T-note and T-bond yields are just more evidence.

Xiphose Tradings take on bonds and USD: Way I see it; it’s kind of simple. Time to get back some of that tax monies paid. 😛

Even if pullbacks happen, they should be temporary. Long silver, gold, grains, hydrocarbons, stocks; short debt.

Raymond Merriman: There is just no stopping this “Asset Inflation Express” in stocks. As stated so many times in this column over the past year, as well as both the Forecast 2010 and 2011 books, the Jupiter and Uranus transit into Aries is likely to bullish for stocks into the middle of this year… But now the geocosmic picture begins to change… The implication is that a correction will begin, or at least the market will likely pause in its upswing during this period.

A) + The inverted Put Call Ratio is neutral.
B) ± The daily Summation ratio ratio is rising again and overbought, like usual.
C) + The weekly Summation ratio is rising again.
D) + The NYSE Bullish percent is rising again.

Long?
VRTU MOS TRS O WCRX

Short?
Bonds, debt, on pullbacks. If I must short, it won’t be individual stocks, just the S&P 500.

January 30, 2011

Outlook for February’s 1st week

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:32 am

Still seems like stocks are working on a top: Wait until conditions are rather oversold to go long and take profits too soon.
A) + The inverted Put Call Ratio is suggeting a bounce, but could easily drop a bit more before a significant bounce.
B) – The daily Summation ratio ratio has turned down and has tentatively formed a divergent top which is associated with bigger moves down. Xiphos Trading pointed this out.
C) – The weekly Summation ratio is starting to fall. But the CCI has made it to 100 at every peak in the past 3 years without exception. Hmmm…
D) – The NYSE Bullish percent is starting to fall. The CCI is picking up momentum to the downside.

From Mr Merriman’s weekly update: Since Uranus rules Aquarius, and is the lord of chaos and non-conformity, the sharp and sudden turns in financial markets are likely to continue. That same day is a new moon in Aquarius, which also coincides with sharp price movements, especially in precious metals.

Tentatively expecting a volatile dip in stocks for February.

Long? (mostly just watching now)
SLW SH1 OJH1 QGH1 LLL KMP REE BA BIDU ESRX REE

Short?
GE PHO CXW ADH1 SH1

January 9, 2011

Outlook for January’s 2nd week

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:01 pm

Hard assets are being valued greater than debt:

The NYSE Bullish Percent weekly chart is still rising, but rather high and stalling out. Time to have tight stops and not go long unless there is a good reason. Although most likely the stock market will go sideways to down, the amount of money the fed (not federal and not a reserve) is printing might buoy stocks. I don’t know.

The timing chart for IBD momo stocks is in the buy area, but unless there is a good opportunity, the preference is to wait.

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent weekly chart turned down. And the SLW:$SILVER ratio has not bottomed. So the bigger metal stocks probably have bottomed, but could have a bounce due to supportive seasonals. Energy stocks are similar.

Momo watch list:
DECK – Entered by accident.
CMG – Now looking like a short!
MELI –
EXPW – UPDATE Jan 14th: Opps the ticker is EZPW. Went long 1/4 position Mar 30’s for $0.76 a few days back.
ENDP – UPDATE Jan 10th: nice channel, gapped under channel, possibly look for a pullback to go short. UPDATE Jan 12th: Short opportunity.

Sell puts watch list:
PG –
PHO – Sold puts.
ECA – Sold puts.
ABV — backtesting breakout. Mildly down on large volume. I might actually see if there is news about this… I looked and could not easily find anything. I don’t understand it so won’t trade it. UPDATE Jan 12th: it’s a data issue. Yahoo is fine, DTNIQ was wacky. Don’t know why? But looks “right” now.

UPDATE Jan 10th: Adding quote from James Turk’s occasional update:

But this time, Comex open interest on silver was rising on Wednesday and Thursday, so there was no net liquidation on those days. It means that there were new buyers who came in to replace the silver longs who were shaken out. Consequently, there is real pressure now on the remaining silver shorts, particularly if Friday’s open interest rose too. (update: Fridays OI dropped 2,212 contracts.

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