Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

July 15, 2011

Silver – general update, no more SIFO backwardation – 5 charts

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:47 pm

Raymond Merriman Comments for the Week Beginning July 18, 2011 The first message has to do with heliocentric Mercury entering Sagittarius, July 19-31… Traders like Sagittarius because it also correlates with large price moves, especially in commodities like Gold and Silver. But what causes the big price moves in commodities? Usually an exaggeration of something that is not quite right in the world, like an impending default on your credit. Thus everyday in which an agreement on the debt ceiling limit is not forthcoming, the hysteria will likely increase, reflected proportionately in the size of the moves up in commodities and down in equities. Of course, there is the possibility that an agreement could be made, in which case the opposite happens in large price swings: stocks go sharply up and commodities come sharply down…

Weekly old silver ratio suggest silver to out preform gold for a few weeks.

Recent LBMA SIFO.

Full SIFO history.

June 1, 2011

Why stocks might trend down for a week or 2: Broken trend line and undercut important bar bases with volume. (update 1, June 2)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:45 pm

– 9 month old trend line broken.

– Yesterdays low was undercut.
– The bounce off the trend line is providing support, but it is almost undercut too.
– The CCI configuration of the weekly under the monthly with the daily seemingly rolling over can indicate a quick move down.

Raymond Merriman: For the past 18 months, this column has correctly identified the “Asset Inflation Express” that would be in force concurrent with Jupiter and Uranus both entering into Aries last May-June 2010… I humbly acknowledge the insights of legendary market trader Ted Lee Fisher, who provided me with the basis for that idea while I was writing the Forecast 2010 Book in November 2009. He proposed the possibility and asked if there was some astrological signatures that would support it, as nearly everyone at the time was convinced the stock markets of the world were about to crash again. I asked computer programmer Sergey Tarassov of AIR software if he could provide a graphic correlation of Jupiter transiting through the signs of the zodiac over the part 100+ years, and also provide a reference as to the last time Jupiter and Uranus were in conjunction and also both in opposition to Saturn, as was the case in July-August 2010. He obliged and to my surprise, both were in a very bullish part of their cycles, and this bullish correspondence was not about to end. To the contrary, these planetary positions showed a market that was about to really take off, especially after June 2010. These graphic correlations and my interpretation of them are provided in both the Forecast 2010 and Forecast 2011 books… The reason I bring this up now is because Jupiter is leaving that sector of the sky next Saturday, June 4. It ingresses into Taurus… The point is that we are at a critical point in the orbit of Jupiter around the Sun. A long-term crest in the stock market is due, and a multi-year bear market is scheduled to commence once this “Asset Inflation Express” runs out of gas… er, cosmic energy.

Mr Merriman’s book written last November literally has a cool chart that has stocks up until “June 4th, 2011.” THEN THINGS ARE GENERALLY BEARISH UNTIL SEPTEMBER 2014.

Amanita Bradley Siderograph

The NYSE Summation Index hass divergence and the weekly is still pointing down.

A “reason” why: Zero Hedge: Did The Fed Just Give The Green Light To Sell The Stock Market? “Ironically… stocks are pricing in QE 3, but for QE 3 to happen stocks have to drop 20% from here…”

June 2: I wanted to be clear that stocks priced in gold or a commodity will very likely go down a lot, but stocks priced in dollars could go up a lot over time. I fully expect at least some significant — but brief — drops in dollar denominated stocks as people sell to get some buffer (cash, beans, bullion, bullets).

Buying the puts yesterday was a mistake. I closed them all this morning. “Xiphos Trading: It’s very unusual to get two back to back washout days like yesterday in broader market (TRIN >4 close). Happened once since the 2007 top. Cool chart here.” If the market does not drop significantly tomorrow, we might be at a near term low. Some stocks like COP, FCX are setting up for a decent bounce. Some high flyers like NFLX and CMG barely went down at all. I am expecting a low around June 13th-ish. If true, the stronger stocks will start running before that.

The fed/gov/cftc/ and banksters seem to be doing a masterful job of keeping the system alive. Walking on eggshells?

May 10, 2011

Time for silver to drop a few days??

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:54 pm

Guessing a gap open that declines most of the day?? Would like to see the magenta weekly CCI drop lower.

Related
+ Turd Ferguson: Objectives Met
+ Articles, silver and stock market charts…

April 20, 2011

Thoughts on SLW… Time to be flexible… What if the anticipated silver correction does not materialize?

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:14 pm

Edit April 21: SLW opening up a few percent is showing strength. Watching and waiting…

Trivia: Did you know it takes a little more than 3 90% silver dimes to make 10 FRN’s? Yes, each dime is currently worth $3.31. That’s up 3,200%, money stolen via the hidden tax of inflation.

Raymond Merriman has an astro turn date for the metals over the weekend. They are usually right, but not always. And Mr Fergusen is anticipating a few down days soon. I think so too. But every little decline in silver is met by buying. And price has yet to close, or even trade I think, below a prior days low. When parabolic markets really take off, just trail a stop a bit below the previous days low. I you have deep pockets, you can probably ignore the first correction (lasting just a few days, but might be very volatile). In silver, probably the first and second correction can be ignored. If the correction is not for a while, all those anticipating it by getting flat or short will have to go long, or cover and go long if they want to reestablish positions — propelling price even more.

SLW could be anticipating a significant correction too. Some other thoughts on SLW:

I traded emails with SLW investor relations today. There don’t seem to be significant problems. Just institutions seem to be selling in anticipation of a silver correction, and the change of leadership which I’m told can often suppress price for a bit. Some comments:

@TrendRida: People never quit w/o notice from a gravy train. Until the news comes out why $SLW’s CEO bailed, it will be a laggard….
@paulwoll: I have read that theory $slw proxy to short $slv. I agree this is also likely & they will have to cover before earnings or sooner…
@TraderSanJose: do you think that $SLW is taking a beating because it can be borrowed for a short, but $SLV is hard to get a borrow?
@paulwoll: Yes I believe that is also the case, though I think they are nuts to short $SLW and when they cover it will be spectacular.

I don’t know. I also can’t easily find a SLW replacement.

Fabian: Two things going on.
… The days of practically stealing silver streams from gold miners are over.
Those contracts that were negotiated when silver was cheap are now wildly obscenely profitable for SLW and that will continue for the next 4 yrs at least. At some point way out there, they have to replace streams as the gold mines gradually play out.
A long ways off but remember Pfizer and how over 5 years in advance of major patent expiration for their two big drugs, the stock started going down and kept going down as the market knew they could not replace those two huge cash cows…

Ok so that brings us to the second part.
I think everyone buying silver is scared to death that they will get caught in a violent reversal because it’s so extended, overbought etc… I believe and am 100% convinced that a lot of hedge funds are buying silver and shorting SLW as a hedge. It’s a hedge that is a very good one so far and when something works, word spreads quickly in the hedge fund community and more do it.

I’m not great with Elliot wave, and don’t put a lot of emphasis on it. But it seems like there have only been 3 waves up from the March 16th low. IF true, I suppose the targets could be between 38 to 40, or even as low as 35 to 36. I don’t know.

Trading plan: Watch to short SLW if silver starts to drop. If shorting silver, which I doubt I will do, use a short term slightly out of the money put. If silver keeps going up, look to EXK and then to SLW unless SLW makes an obvious buying pattern like a gap opening down that reverses up.

I can also imagine price hits $50/oz and then dumps back to $45/oz in a day or 2 and then starts to ascend for real.

+ Embry – JP Morgan Massive Short Position Causing Silver Spike
+ 25% Of Scotia Mocatta’s Silver Transferred From “Registered” To “Eligible” Status: A 45% Reduction In “Physical”

February 13, 2011

Weekly outlook for 3rd week of February

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:16 pm

Raymond Merriman …there is one way to conceive of the stock market continuing to rally, and that has to do with Jupiter being in Aries, and Uranus about to enter Aries once more. This is the basis for the “Asset Inflation Express” currently in effect since late last summer, and expected to continue into May-June 2011… Yet the equity markets may still experience a sudden reversal even this coming week. Transiting Mars will form a conjunction (zero degrees separation) to the Pluto in the New York Stock Exchange chart (May 17, 1792). Mars will also form a square aspect to the NYSE Mercury-Sun conjunction at the same time. My observation is that over 80% of the time that transiting Mars makes such a hard aspect to these planets in the NYSE chart, it coincides with a sharp but brief decline. Let’s see if it works this time.

Seems to me the fed (not fed, nor reserve) will continue to print until things blow up. What else has any gov at the end of it’s line ever done but try to kick the can one more time. Expecting a mix of (possibly extreme) volatility with rising notional prices of everything with intrinsic value (character, relationships, food, metals, farm land, and some stocks).

Strategy: Buy much smaller positions then usual in a steady fashion. Basically dollar cost average.

Just looking at the inverted put call ratio for now. It’s neutral to overbought.

Long?
ROVI TZOO SA LLL DDIC CAM BRCM REE TIE

Feb 14: Not a big fan of these “outlooks”. I really don’t plan for more than a day out and the watch list changes every night …

February 5, 2011

Outlook for February’s 2nd week (fixed)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:08 pm

James Turk summery: Anyway you look at it, last week was a very positive one for the precious metals. The big news is the upside breakout above 3.5% in the yield of 10-year T-notes. With rising commodity prices across the board, people around the world are increasingly recognizing that inflation is getting worse. Higher T-note and T-bond yields are just more evidence.

Xiphose Tradings take on bonds and USD: Way I see it; it’s kind of simple. Time to get back some of that tax monies paid. 😛

Even if pullbacks happen, they should be temporary. Long silver, gold, grains, hydrocarbons, stocks; short debt.

Raymond Merriman: There is just no stopping this “Asset Inflation Express” in stocks. As stated so many times in this column over the past year, as well as both the Forecast 2010 and 2011 books, the Jupiter and Uranus transit into Aries is likely to bullish for stocks into the middle of this year… But now the geocosmic picture begins to change… The implication is that a correction will begin, or at least the market will likely pause in its upswing during this period.

A) + The inverted Put Call Ratio is neutral.
B) ± The daily Summation ratio ratio is rising again and overbought, like usual.
C) + The weekly Summation ratio is rising again.
D) + The NYSE Bullish percent is rising again.

Long?
VRTU MOS TRS O WCRX

Short?
Bonds, debt, on pullbacks. If I must short, it won’t be individual stocks, just the S&P 500.

January 30, 2011

Outlook for February’s 1st week

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:32 am

Still seems like stocks are working on a top: Wait until conditions are rather oversold to go long and take profits too soon.
A) + The inverted Put Call Ratio is suggeting a bounce, but could easily drop a bit more before a significant bounce.
B) – The daily Summation ratio ratio has turned down and has tentatively formed a divergent top which is associated with bigger moves down. Xiphos Trading pointed this out.
C) – The weekly Summation ratio is starting to fall. But the CCI has made it to 100 at every peak in the past 3 years without exception. Hmmm…
D) – The NYSE Bullish percent is starting to fall. The CCI is picking up momentum to the downside.

From Mr Merriman’s weekly update: Since Uranus rules Aquarius, and is the lord of chaos and non-conformity, the sharp and sudden turns in financial markets are likely to continue. That same day is a new moon in Aquarius, which also coincides with sharp price movements, especially in precious metals.

Tentatively expecting a volatile dip in stocks for February.

Long? (mostly just watching now)
SLW SH1 OJH1 QGH1 LLL KMP REE BA BIDU ESRX REE

Short?
GE PHO CXW ADH1 SH1

January 4, 2011

Silver’s 5% drop today: not a big deal, yet

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:52 am

With LBMA silver again going into backwardation after a 7 trading day reprieve (Mistake, silver lease rates went up in the near months compared to the far months.), “the worlds richest man” apparently buying, persistent rumors of silver shortages, the shorts losing control, and the US gov insolvent, many silver bulls are curious about silver’s drop today.

There was a Merriman major astro reversal date yesterday — most everything reversed including bonds. Yet the Dollar Index is only up 0.3% so far today: Weak!

According to Martin Armstrong, securities have a panic cycle (page 3), or phase transition, 2% of the time. Normally markets breath in and out: go up and down. When securities get overbought that can mean the buyers have bought as much as they want, and many start taking profits and wait for a pullback.

There are probably many BIG entities beside the bankster shorts who would love a pull back so they can buy (or cover). If they buy in a rising market, they can easily run the price up. And they try not to stunt the falling price by not buying too much.

5 months ago silver rose 60% from 18 $/oz to $29. To the people who don’t know the stellar fundamentals, that’s a pretty good rise — time to take some profits. To the people who do know the fundamentals, silver is just getting started.

Why do entities “take profits”: “How much lower will price go?? I don’t know. Let’s wait until it looks like a bottom.” How much drawdown can an account take??

Phil Erlanger: “The market tends to move against the majority at risk.” Probably in this case: weak longs. And the Asian’s are probably front running JPM’s buy orders 🙂

Xiphos Trading’s optimism: GDX back test. Xiphos Trading’s realism: NEM didn’t keep up with stocks, nor gold.

This pull back has — SO FAR — done little technical damage to the silver chart. Since the fundamentals seem pretty strong,
+ Price above trend line
– Volume is large
+ Price at rising 34 EMA

May 1, 2010

Timing and trade setups (updated Feb 2011)

Time is everything: five minutes makes the difference between victory and defeat. — Horatio Nelson

Investments, timeframe of months
Buy when the 20 week simple moving average crosses above the 50W SMA by more than 1%. Karl Denninger has a great little explanatory video.

Swing trading, timeframe of weeks
I use Raymond Merriman’s astrological information. I like his turning points. He offers a free weekly preview, and a yearly forecast book. Bulkowski’s Book Review: Swing Trading 6 great summaries.

Entry timing
+ Consider buying when the CCI (10) of the inverted Put Call Ratio is around -100 ish.
+ Best time to buy is often the first 45-60 minutes after the market opens.
+ Wait for a correction and then a trigger that suggests the correction is over.
+ Triggers can be the high of a narrow range 7, a trend line, or the 34 EMA is turning up.
+ Buy when price exceeds the high of the previous day.
+ Can buy at the money calls that expire in 3 months or greater on the trigger too.
+ Exit if not profitable in a few days.
+ Exit if price breaks a major support.
+ Take profit on half the position at first resistance.
+ Immediately remove 10% of windfalls from trading account.

Shorting individual stocks
Only if S&P 500 is trading below a downtrending 34 EMA. Jeff Clark’s How to Trade the “Kiss of Death”

Selling options:
To worst possible time to buy options is typically in the opening 10 minutes or so when volatility is high. So that can be the best time to sell options.

Commodities:
I sometimes subscribe to the Moore Research Center’s Seasonal Action Report. Great for commodity traders. They offer free Monthly Nearby Commodity Charts.

Knowledge of the Commitment of Traders reports is also indispensible for commodity traders. Steve Briese offers the excellent COT Bullish Review. I used to subscribe, but found I like to generate my own signals. I check Commitment of Traders graphs before considering placing a trade. Starting to use Finviz.com more.

Timing charts
Jeff Clark using the bullish percent index of the transportation sector.
Xiphos Trading taught me this: On the daily Summation ratio chart, look for divergence to to be associated with the bigger changes of direction.

Other useful charts:
– Weekly Summation ratio.
– NYSE Bullish percent.
– Gold Miners Bullish percent.
– Energy sector Bullish percent.

SPECIAL CASES
Being long calls and selling on a gap up to avoid a significant down drop and possibly buy back cheaper.
– Exiting a bullish position in a bullish stock can backfire.
– The less extended the less this will benefit because price can turn very quickly.
– When quite extended and price opens above the previous high, exit calls, or sell calls at-the-money (I have never done this). You can also short the stock and cover on significant support. Cover on a new high.
+ Buy back on price reaching significant support, or scale back in as price hits lower supports.
– After about 5 minutes, buy back if a new high is made for more than a few minutes. Only the strongest stocks will open high and extended, and just keep going.
+/- Probably the stock will go down for at least a day or 2. The distance and time price corrects is usually directly related to the stocks strength.

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