Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

March 22, 2011

Silver update – death of the US dollar and COMEX?

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:31 pm

Things are getting really interesting…

Harvey Organ: There are 7 trading days left so in each of the 7 days, the comex must settle upon 625,000 oz each and every day… I do not believe that they can do it.

+ PSLV has a 21% premium to NAV.
+ Scotia Mocatta is still out of 4 of 7 silver offerings.
+ Solid evidence: The official data about central bank gold reserves is bogus and often simply disinformation.
+ 10-Johnson Matthey 1 Troy oz. 999 Fine Silver Bars just sold on Ebay for 540 frn’s/oz. (Sorry, don’t recall who pointed this out.)

Some vault operators are more equal than others. JPM appears immune from processes that everyone else must suffer through. On March 15, 2011, the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) advised the CFTC that they had approved J.P. Morgan’s application to become a licensed vault facility, using a “self-certification” process.

Jim Willie’s latest for paid subscribers is rumored to suggest the “secret meeting” in Feb 2011 with all the US ambassadors, was all about devaluing the current dollar and replacing it with a new “Republic Dollar” that is backed by gold and silver. Where is this gold and silver going to come from???

Fed’s Fisher: U.S. debt situation at tipping point “We are seeing speculative activity that may be exacerbating (price rises in) key commodities such as oil.” It’s always those pesky speculators, never the people responsible… “We need to continue to discuss the exit policy… ” Please discuss something that is not going to happen and please don’t discus us stealing your money!

This is for March 21st. Same basic structure today though. About 0.80 between May 2011 and December 2015.

March 8, 2011

Silver update for backwardation and tidbits on March 8th

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:51 am

Expect at least another 6 days of rising silver prices.

+ Scotia Mocatta sold out of 1 oz, 5 oz, 100 oz, and 1 kg silver for 2 days now. Was out of 3 kinds of silver a few days before that.
+ Kitco is not selling Maple Leafs.
+ Mr Tulving is not selling Maple Leafs, and has opened mint boxes of pre 2011 American Eagles, but not sealed boxes, “Premiums Currently To High, In Our Opinion”.
+ Silver “Scorched Earth” and The END of Market Manipulation
+ Excellent article: The Silver Bullet And The Silver Shield

Ed Steer:

For the fifth day in a row, the U.S. Mint had no sales report. [No silver ehh??]

he big overnight increase in silver prices had a huge effect on my bullion dealer’s business yesterday, as it was wall-to-wall buyers at his store all day long. He had one of the biggest one-day silver sales days in the history of his business. Price almost no longer matters, as the buyers just want in.

As Silver Prices Soar, Silver Coins Get Smaller [Supports the idea that 90% silver dimes are a top choice. Jeff Clark also chimes in: “I’m sure they’re [MS65’s] wonderful investments,” Hector said. “But they’re a very poor currency… Will the baker know the value of your coins?”]

As of 10:30 PST which metal has the smallest dip? But does not silver usually fly all over the place? Yes. So then, relatively, silver’s dip is even smaller. (Finviz.com)

References
+ Silver backwardation – March 7 – No major changes

February 24, 2011

Backwardation update for Feb 24: about the same as yesterday

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:09 pm

King World News interviewed Dave Madge director of sales at the Royal Canadian Mint. When asked if the RCM is having trouble acquiring silver Madge responded, “Demand right now for silver is through the roof and it shows no signs of slowing at this point. Sourcing silver is becoming very difficult. We are competing with a great many players when it comes to purchasing silver and many of these players are bidding the price higher… We are anticipating it to become even more difficult to secure supplies in the future. This is based on what we are seeing firsthand and what our suppliers are telling us.”

Scotia Mocatta was briefly out of 1, 10, 100 oz bars, a week ago. They have have been out of 1 kg bars for the past 6 days. The 100 oz bars are out of stock again.

Still a sizable $1.16/ oz difference between the front month and December 2015.

The LBMA is about the same as yesterday.

IF the fractal is a repeat, possibly expect silver to rise to 40-46 38 $/oz over the next 20 trading days, if the LBMA 12 month SIFO does not make a new low.

References:
+ Harvey Organ has today’s delivery and warehouse details.
+ Silver backwardation update for Feb 23 2011 and long term chart
+ SLW – long short term and long term calls -4%, +60%, +65%, -15%

February 16, 2011

Very interesting development in COMEX backwardation

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:00 am

Look how yesterday’s COMEX silver settlement prices declined in the far forward contracts.

It’s also interesting because this is reflected in recent LBMA backwardation too.

Scotia Mocatta now has 1, 5 and 100 oz bars, but is now out of 1 kg bars.

James Turk: (and a great discussion on “silver hedges”) In fact, the backwardation is steepening almost every day. The 13-cent backwardation to Dec 2015 I mentioned previously has now widened to 32-cents, meaning physical silver is becoming even more scarce – and the shorts are in an even more difficult position… So even if a bullion bank is borrowing silver to sell spot to complete a hedge for a mining company, the important point is that the spot market is absorbing everything the bullion banks can throw at it, and even more importantly, silver remains in extreme backwardation which itself is growing. All of this is very bullish, but here’s another even more bullish interpretation of this hedging.

References
+ Silver backwardation update: Partial at COMEX day 8; full at LBMA day 9; Scotia Mocatta low; Tulving (almost) fine

February 15, 2011

Silver backwardation update: Partial at COMEX day 8; full at LBMA day 9; Scotia Mocatta low; Tulving (almost) fine

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:04 am

Scotia Mocatta had 1 ounce silver bars for about 24 hours. Now out of 1, 5 and 100 oz bars.

Mr Tulving still has plenty of 90% silver at relatively low premiums. (see below for update)

Interesting that the 12 month SIFO is now below al other months. Like the COMEX.

References:
+ COMEX Backwadation To Day 6, LBMA To Day 7; Scotia Mocatta Still Out Of 1,5 And 100 Oz Bars

Feb 15: Actually, Mr Tulving is out of one category of 90% silver. Although there are reportedly 140 bags in inventory, that is only 100,000 oz or $3,100,000 FRN’s worth. Not much.

February 8, 2011

COMEX backwadation to day 3, LBMA to day 4, full SIFO chart

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 7:03 am

Scotia Mocatta reportedly out of 1,5, and 100 ounce silver bars.

References:
+ Backwardation still going strong in COMEX and LBMA and rumors
+ The obvious and GARGANTUAN silver opportunity

February 3, 2011

Silver tasting LBMA backwardation, Scotia Mocatta out of silver bars, etc.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:50 am

Scotia Mocatta Sells Out Of All Silver Bars …Canada ‘s biggest bullion bank is out of not only the 100 oz silver bar, but all silver bars…

And roughly 20% of 2010’s US Mint silver Eagle sales have already happened by January 2011. January’s 6,472,000 ounces … is nearly 50% higher than any prior month in the Mint’s 26 years of published sales history.

Ounces of silver to buy a median priced home in the US: The ratio bottomed at 1,258 ounces in 1980. So expect to be able to buy a US house with about 1,000 of silver in the next couple of years. Actually, since that number was when there was 15 times more above ground gold than silver, and now there are 5 times more above ground gold than silver, I expect the ounces to buy a house to be unbelievably lower.

The Financial Times does usually only publishes “negative” stories on metals. Yet we have:

China on track to become top gold buyer… The growth in demand is being attributed in part to Chinese families giving each other gifts of gold instead of traditional red envelopes filled with cash… Precious metals traders … said … they were stunned by the strength of Chinese buying in the past month. “The demand is unbelievable. The size of the orders is enormous”…

Adding a nice chart:

Feb 5: Scotia Mocatta is only out of the 100 oz and 5 oz bars currently.

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