“Does charting work in manipulated markets?”
A good rule of thumb is supposedly the more psychological emotion that is involved in a stock / commodity / whatever, the cleaner the patterns are. Aren’t there seemingly a lot of forceful entities around who care a great deal about silver’s price?
I use charts as reference points, not prediction vehicles. Basically I try to notice low risk, high reward entry points, enter, then trail stops in order to let profits run while minimizing losses.
We humans manipulate our environment all the time. Manipulate — Latin “handful”
- Handle, alter, edit, move.
- Examine by interaction.
- Control, influence cleverly, unfairly, or unscrupulously.
The problem stems from the divine right of kings where “special” people don’t have to deal with laws. It’s an inherently win-lose system. Thats why I like contracts. It’s an inherently win-win system.
The question is, do “special” people really “control” the markets, or do they just surf the overall current meme (“control works” in this case) and SAY, PRETEND, and ACT as if they are in control?
“Beneath our poised appearance we are completely out of control.” — The Merovingian
If these people are so special, why can’t they control things long term? Maybe because they are unique, just like everyone else and not above evolution? I have yet to notice anyone powerful enough to control evolution. (I view the ability to manipulate genes as an expression of evolution.) If things change in the direction of decentralization (power), won’t those who glorified themselves with a false mantle of control (force) be left high and dry wondering what happened?
“Puny god.” – The Hulk, Avengers(?) (SOOO funny!)
A simple view: The charted price of COMEX silver is the charted price of COMEX silver because of the current overall supply and demand of silver — including legal and illegal manipulation. When a variable changes, the price chart will too. It has to: It’s displaying actual transactions. “Reasons” for a transaction are a dime a dozen.
- Currently demand is willing to accept paper supply, if that changes, so will charted transaction price.
- Currently few care about silver, so it’s inexpensive to paint the chart. When “enough” care, transaction price will reflect that, and it will cost a lot more money to paint the chart. If “a lot” of people care, it’s likely cost prohibitive to paint the chart. It’s all supply and demand.
The other question is, why the heck are people trying to compete directly with “superior” forces? Why enter into a win-lose situation when you don’t have to? Find your own niche. Power is never granted, only taken. I know a guy (~Frank) who was hired by a fancy accounting / management firm. Competition was very intense (wide and deep) between “colleagues” for billable hours. How does one deal with that? Relax and wait for an opportunity: After a while Frank noticed an opportunity that allowed him to create a whole new stream of billable hours via a whole new class of new clients. Frank had zero internal competition, grew his team quickly and was the youngest and newest employee ever to be offered a partnership.
Frank eschews paperwork, and to be a partner, you have to fill out stuff. He just threw it in the trash. His boss kept calling asking when he was going to turn it in. Frank would just say he was too busy billing hours and hang up! What’s his boss going to do, fire him? THE BOSS HAS CONROL, BUT FRANK HAS POWER. And that’s how, and why, non-nature based control systems fail.
I have personally observed an (anonymous) person short the bond market years ago with superb precision. Months before the ideal time to short anonymous started refining the projected zone using longer term charts. As things got closer, anonymous moved into shorter time charts. At the end anonymous was using 5 min charts, shorting with stop loss points of only 1-2 ticks. Anonymous was stopped out about 3 times that day for a max loss of 6-7 ticks, which is minuscule! By the end of the day anonymous had a big short on and rode it down for months.
Sounds great, right? Well, who has the knowledge, discipline and confidence to publicly stalk, but NOT enter a trade for months, then enter and be incorrect 3 times in a row in a few hours, make a 4th trade and not touch it until months later and exit near the bottom? Anonymous said it took about TWENTY years of Gann studying to be that skilled.