Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

August 7, 2014

SLW – Time to go long

Filed under: *OPEN TRADES, Long Calls, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:47 am

The SLW : Silver ratio keeps rising, and it looks like a mini breakout is holding.
Short March 2015 27 put @ 2.95
Long March 2015 27 call @ 2.55

No stop loss.

SLW daily AUG 7 2014

Update 1, Jan 20 2015
Well, it was not time to go long after all. Will likely be rolling over the options.

SLW daily 20 jan 2015

March 22, 2014

Possible SLW buy based on SLW : Silver ratio

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:17 am

Ed Steer: For the week:
– Gold was down 3.4
– The HUI lost 8.6%.
This is normal

– Silver was down 5.5%
– Silver stock index closed lower by only 2.9%.
This is not normal. Typically the index should be down over 10% (if not 5,000%!). The typical explanation is that strong hands are buying silver shares and silver and the silver shares should go up soon. When the top is near, silver should keep going up, and silver shares should under preform.

Graphically, the SLW : silver ratio is rising, suggesting more upside in general. If true, for the next few days, SLW is a buy on a stop of about 25.5, with stop loss a bit under 24.5.

SLW Ag ratio MAR 22 2014

Update 1, May 4 2014
And avoiding that down draft is why I like to buy on a stop. A small divergence seems to have marked a local bottom.
Ag SLW ratio May 4 2014

February 13, 2014

SLW move so far looks strong.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:44 pm

Today even when silver and SPY were dipping, SLW was rising. Pretty good show of relative strength.

The HUI : SPY weekly ratio has tentatively broken out.

HUI SPY feb 13 2014

The SLW : silver ratio is also looking like SLW price can easily go higher: SLW is leading silver by a lot. The orange arrows show that the ratio has already broken out to the upside. Typically a sign of strength.

SLW silver daily feb 13 2014

Update: And just the fact that price had an outside up day and did not really test the January high and 170 EMA — that also shows strength.

SLW daily feb 13 2014

July 21, 2013

A little silver update… (update 1, July 22)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:23 pm

+ Bullish percent is finally rising.

BPGDM weekly july 21 2013

+ SLW is leading the $silver price. Supposedly that means a rally has legs.

SLW silver ratio daily july 21 2013

I have always preferred SLW. Well, it looks like FSM might be better.
+ SLW declined lower than FSM on multiple time frames.
+ FSM’s rise over the last month or so has been about 5% higher than SLW.

FSM SLW july 21 2013

I’m currently long FSM SEP 2.50 calls.

FSM daily july 21 2013

Update July 22: So far incorrect in assuming FSM will outpace SLW. After first hour of trade, FSM +2%, SLW +6%

February 27, 2013

SLW – still waiting for a low risk buy pattern.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:31 pm

+ The signs of a desperate bottom are starting to appear in the junior-mining sector… We’re starting to see dollar bills trading for 80 cents. Has a chart and a table (Stansberry).

– 1 issue is there is no prior chart support near 31.5 to 32 to the left. I have read that does not suggest a solid bottom. Bouncing off decent support, say 28 or 26.5-ish, supposedly would suggest a solid bottom

SLW silver ratio daily feb 28 2013

+  SLW – Waiting for a low risk buy due to small short interest, and SLW:silver ratio strength.

February 17, 2013

SLW – Waiting for a low risk buy due to small short interest, and SLW:silver ratio strength.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:33 pm

SLW Short Interest
SLW weekly feb 17 2013

SLW silver ratio daily feb 17 2013

+ SLW – Looking to buy on a stop due to price breaking above down trend line. -8%

February 8, 2013

On silver manipulation; How non-nature based control systems fail: puny gods!

Filed under: Editorials, Systems — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 6:45 pm

“Does charting work in manipulated markets?”

A good rule of thumb is supposedly the more psychological emotion that is involved in a stock / commodity / whatever, the cleaner the patterns are. Aren’t there seemingly a lot of forceful entities around who care a great deal about silver’s price?

I use charts as reference points, not prediction vehicles. Basically I try to notice low risk, high reward entry points, enter, then trail stops in order to let profits run while minimizing losses.

We humans manipulate our environment all the time. Manipulate — Latin “handful”

  • Handle, alter, edit, move.
  • Examine by interaction.
  • Control, influence cleverly, unfairly, or unscrupulously.

The problem stems from the divine right of kings where “special” people don’t have to deal with laws. It’s an inherently win-lose system. Thats why I like contracts. It’s an inherently win-win system.

The question is, do “special” people really “control” the markets, or do they just surf the overall current meme (“control works” in this case) and SAY, PRETEND, and ACT as if they are in control?

“Beneath our poised appearance we are completely out of control.” — The Merovingian

If these people are so special, why can’t they control things long term? Maybe because they are unique, just like everyone else and not above evolution? I have yet to notice anyone powerful enough to control evolution. (I view the ability to manipulate genes as an expression of evolution.) If things change in the direction of decentralization (power), won’t those who glorified themselves with a false mantle of control (force) be left high and dry wondering what happened?

Puny god.” – The Hulk, Avengers(?) (SOOO funny!)

A simple view: The charted price of COMEX silver is the charted price of COMEX silver because of the current overall supply and demand of silver — including legal and illegal manipulation. When a variable changes, the price chart will too. It has to: It’s displaying actual transactions. “Reasons” for a transaction are a dime a dozen.

  • Currently demand is willing to accept paper supply, if that changes, so will charted transaction price.
  • Currently few care about silver, so it’s inexpensive to paint the chart. When “enough” care, transaction price will reflect that, and it will cost a lot more money to paint the chart. If “a lot” of people care, it’s likely cost prohibitive to paint the chart. It’s all supply and demand.

The other question is, why the heck are people trying to compete directly with “superior” forces? Why enter into a win-lose situation when you don’t have to? Find your own niche. Power is never granted, only taken. I know a guy (~Frank) who was hired by a fancy accounting / management firm. Competition was very intense (wide and deep) between “colleagues” for billable hours. How does one deal with that? Relax and wait for an opportunity: After a while Frank noticed an opportunity that allowed him to create a whole new stream of billable hours via a whole new class of new clients. Frank had zero internal competition, grew his team quickly and was the youngest and newest employee ever to be offered a partnership.

Frank eschews paperwork, and to be a partner, you have to fill out stuff. He just threw it in the trash. His boss kept calling asking when he was going to turn it in. Frank would just say he was too busy billing hours and hang up! What’s his boss going to do, fire him? THE BOSS HAS CONROL, BUT FRANK HAS POWER. And that’s how, and why, non-nature based control systems fail.

Old Story
I have personally observed an (anonymous) person short the bond market years ago with superb precision. Months before the ideal time to short anonymous started refining the projected zone using longer term charts. As things got closer, anonymous moved into shorter time charts. At the end anonymous was using 5 min charts, shorting with stop loss points of only 1-2 ticks. Anonymous was stopped out about 3 times that day for a max loss of 6-7 ticks, which is minuscule! By the end of the day anonymous had a big short on and rode it down for months.

Sounds great, right? Well, who has the knowledge, discipline and confidence to publicly stalk, but NOT enter a trade for months, then enter and be incorrect 3 times in a row in a few hours, make a 4th trade and not touch it until months later and exit near the bottom? Anonymous said it took about TWENTY years of Gann studying to be that skilled.

October 22, 2012

SLW : Silver ratio musings…

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 1:20 pm

The theory is that stocks lead the commodity. More generally, the premier asset leads the pack (commodity). Possibly this could be due to smart money activity?

October 16, 2012

SLW:silver ratio suggests higher prices

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:56 pm

October 3, 2012

Silver – attempting to add to longs. -20% (update 1 Oct 9)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Futures Trades — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:01 pm

Attempting to add another long silver position near a 34.91 buy stop. Stop loss is a little lose at 34.15 ish. Adding too: Silver and gold – Long if a buy stop triggers near yesterday’s highs.

Update 1, October 9: Stopped out -20%. Not sure why I did not buy an option instead. Physical demand is still reported to be high.

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