Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

August 7, 2014

SLW – Time to go long

Filed under: *OPEN TRADES, Long Calls, Short Puts — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:47 am

The SLW : Silver ratio keeps rising, and it looks like a mini breakout is holding.
Short March 2015 27 put @ 2.95
Long March 2015 27 call @ 2.55

No stop loss.

SLW daily AUG 7 2014

Update 1, Jan 20 2015
Well, it was not time to go long after all. Will likely be rolling over the options.

SLW daily 20 jan 2015

March 22, 2014

Possible SLW buy based on SLW : Silver ratio

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:17 am

Ed Steer: For the week:
– Gold was down 3.4
– The HUI lost 8.6%.
This is normal

– Silver was down 5.5%
– Silver stock index closed lower by only 2.9%.
This is not normal. Typically the index should be down over 10% (if not 5,000%!). The typical explanation is that strong hands are buying silver shares and silver and the silver shares should go up soon. When the top is near, silver should keep going up, and silver shares should under preform.

Graphically, the SLW : silver ratio is rising, suggesting more upside in general. If true, for the next few days, SLW is a buy on a stop of about 25.5, with stop loss a bit under 24.5.

SLW Ag ratio MAR 22 2014

Update 1, May 4 2014
And avoiding that down draft is why I like to buy on a stop. A small divergence seems to have marked a local bottom.
Ag SLW ratio May 4 2014

February 13, 2014

SLW move so far looks strong.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:44 pm

Today even when silver and SPY were dipping, SLW was rising. Pretty good show of relative strength.

The HUI : SPY weekly ratio has tentatively broken out.

HUI SPY feb 13 2014

The SLW : silver ratio is also looking like SLW price can easily go higher: SLW is leading silver by a lot. The orange arrows show that the ratio has already broken out to the upside. Typically a sign of strength.

SLW silver daily feb 13 2014

Update: And just the fact that price had an outside up day and did not really test the January high and 170 EMA — that also shows strength.

SLW daily feb 13 2014

July 21, 2013

A little silver update… (update 1, July 22)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:23 pm

+ Bullish percent is finally rising.

BPGDM weekly july 21 2013

+ SLW is leading the $silver price. Supposedly that means a rally has legs.

SLW silver ratio daily july 21 2013

I have always preferred SLW. Well, it looks like FSM might be better.
+ SLW declined lower than FSM on multiple time frames.
+ FSM’s rise over the last month or so has been about 5% higher than SLW.

FSM SLW july 21 2013

I’m currently long FSM SEP 2.50 calls.

FSM daily july 21 2013

Update July 22: So far incorrect in assuming FSM will outpace SLW. After first hour of trade, FSM +2%, SLW +6%

February 27, 2013

SLW – still waiting for a low risk buy pattern.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:31 pm

+ The signs of a desperate bottom are starting to appear in the junior-mining sector… We’re starting to see dollar bills trading for 80 cents. Has a chart and a table (Stansberry).

– 1 issue is there is no prior chart support near 31.5 to 32 to the left. I have read that does not suggest a solid bottom. Bouncing off decent support, say 28 or 26.5-ish, supposedly would suggest a solid bottom

SLW silver ratio daily feb 28 2013

+  SLW – Waiting for a low risk buy due to small short interest, and SLW:silver ratio strength.

February 17, 2013

SLW – Waiting for a low risk buy due to small short interest, and SLW:silver ratio strength.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:33 pm

SLW Short Interest
SLW weekly feb 17 2013

SLW silver ratio daily feb 17 2013

+ SLW – Looking to buy on a stop due to price breaking above down trend line. -8%

January 17, 2013

SLW – Looking to buy on a stop due to price breaking above down trend line. -8% (update1, Feb 17)

Filed under: -05 to -24%, Long Stock — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:18 pm

+ Medium term RSI now above a long term RSI that seems to be rising.
+ Multiple indications of silver shortages.
+ January us mint silver eagle sales pass 6 million, mint suspends sales, states eagles are sold out!!
+ fed/gov keeps printing money.
+ price broke over the down trend line and had a little rest on near term EMA support.

Buy stop near todays high.
Stop loss around 3.75.

SLW daily jan 17 2013

Update 1 Feb 17
Stopped out even with a fairly wide stop loss near the trading range low. Note the updated down trend line.
SLW daily feb 17 2013

October 22, 2012

SLW – Lots of nice and big green volume bars. (update 1, Oct 24)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:00 pm

With seemingly every gov debasing, SLW might just be the premier security.

+ SLW : Silver ratio musings…
+ SLW:silver ratio suggests higher prices
Silver – attempting to add to longs. -20%
+ 25 prominent hedge funds position’s on gold and silver hold no surprises: No silver, 3% of positions gold related and typically small.
“Nothing, but nothing, moves like silver.” Maybe no weekly dip for another 4 weeks.
+ Silver and gold – Long if a buy stop triggers near yesterday’s highs. +103% +130%

Update 1, October 24: Well, things don’t seem so bullish now 🙂 With the openly admitted and active debasement actions by multiple gov’s, I continue to be surprised that the metals are not ascending in a big, or at least steady, way. Just another reason for me not to trade what I think. Just trade what I see.

SLW : Silver ratio musings…

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 1:20 pm

The theory is that stocks lead the commodity. More generally, the premier asset leads the pack (commodity). Possibly this could be due to smart money activity?

October 16, 2012

SLW:silver ratio suggests higher prices

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:56 pm

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