Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

July 11, 2011

USD index turning bullish?

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 5:32 pm

+ Price just broke out of the weekly down trend line.
+ The midterm RSI is rising above a rising longterm RSI.
+ Volume was pretty stout on many of the recent up bars.
– Price still under the EMA’s.
– Futures price still below 3.5 major lows going back to 2008.

Maybe the dollar index does not go up much, but at least sideways for a few weeks??

Update: July 16th:

May 2, 2011

Quick note on the silver price action Sunday night… (updated)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:21 pm

Likely most all of the weak longs have just been flushed out. And the margin hikes force the smaller accounts to the miners and ETF’s. The shorts seem pretty desperate to me. Margin should have been hiked a while back $5 silver days are equal to $25,000 moves. Having too low of margins helps the small accounts blow up.

EDIT: Margins should be, for everything, 90% of the notional value for the 24 hour maximum high low range for a 3 month look back period, updated every minute. That way everyone knows what the margins are and will be. None of this tomfoolery.

So why the [Sprott silver] sales? “Every dollar of money that was raised by selling shares of [the Trust]… was reinvested in silver or silver equities…” I think I will follow Mr. Sprott. I tentatively expect silver to bounce around in the 40 to 50 range and at some point have the miners lead the way up. Possibly seeing that begin today in SLW. Might take a few weeks to play out.

The dollar index is weak. Not only can’t it seem to rally on “news”, the staged news itself isn’t even that good. Surely it will bounce soon, but if all it does for the next week or 2 is flit around here, look out below.

April 30, 2011

If current silver pause is shallow due to shorts covering, I imagine a large price rally is nigh.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:05 pm

+ Jason Goepfert, “This is 4th time in 30 yrs that US Dollar fell 8 days to 52wk low. Others = quick rally, then lower low (10/25/04,4/19/07,3/6/08).”
+ How the COMEX Didn’t Lose its Silver Lots of info on the silver delivery process.
+ Comex Explains Large Adjustment in Silver & Gold Registered Inventories “… the reclassification was … due to a change in its reporting system to electronic warrants and the metals that had not fully converted from paper to electronic were moved to eligible.”
+ Ghost Informative short article about some historical aspects of timing major currency changes of trend.
+ Ed Steer: Silver on fire in India: “Despite a 100% jump in price in just over six months from October 2010, demand for the silver metal refuses to die in India.”
+ Ed Steer again: “There’s still the possibility that the bullion banks may blast gold to the downside one more time, to get one more shot at the silver shorts…but, regardless of that, the price management scheme by the bullion banks in both the silver and gold markets, is obviously on its last legs. From this day forward, all price bets are off.” Pretty strong words!
+ SilverGoldSilver sums it all up well:

“8,438 contracts covered. Bullish… Thats a large amount of contracts to be covered in Silver especially at these prices. Now if I was JPM and I knew where the price of silver (or anything is going since THEY are the market) WHY WOULD YOU COVER AT ALL TIME HIGHS? If silver was truly in bubble territory they would have added to the shorts and covered at a much lower price. Something BIG is about to happen. This is a HUGE tell unless the data is a set up for a bull trap. I doubt this is the case… This is huge. Realize that the biggest players in this market dont cover to take massive losses at 5000 year highs if they know its not going higher. So. We go higher. They have given us a “tell.” May not be tomorrow, but this report just told me to keep buying.

Some “tops” to compare with April 2011’s:
+ The 10 EMA was at least tagged by the 3rd day following the high.
+ Price never challenged the high just 3 days later.
+ Price had a marginal new high followed by a correction twice. This is kind of what I think Mr Ferguson suggests. (Up next week to about 52, down possibly the next 2 weeks to 47(?) then up enough to buy small countries. And this fits in with the USD index having a dead cat bounce off about 70 for ?2? weeks ??)

One speculative interpretation for the past few trading days is that the naked shorts used the advantage of many dumping their longs and / or going short at the big psychological number of 50. Now if price goes up next week to about 52-53, would that be enough to entice short covering by the new shorts. Then the market can fall again with gold and possibly stocks, allowing the new longs to get whipped once again. I suppose there are not a lot of other options. Once silver breaks free of everything, it might go up a lot and be “unmanageable.”

April 8, 2011

Silver update April 8th

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 1:08 am

Silver is up a significant amount overnight. And importantly, bonds and the dollar index are both down while most everything else is up. But this is after hours. If these trends continue tomorrow I would think they will stick.

quotes.ino.com

Xiphos_Trading
USDX looks so sorry & sick tonight. Shelve ur preconceived notions of what commodities “should” be doing. These moves lately are FX driven.

To me, this could mean that enough of the background machinations are spilling to the forefront that things could start to shift quickly. There is so much going on, and I am busy right now with other things, I don’t even try to keep up.

+ Surprising Observations From TrimTabs: “Are Central Bankers Loading Up On Gold?”
+ A breakout of this consolidation expanding wedge is huge. A halfway consolidation in time & price.
+ More Trump: Smackdown on MSNBC
+ Marc Faber – Mr. Bernanke is a Murderer of the Middle Class
++ (Excellent charts!) Silver Is Getting Too Popular… Right? By Jeff Clark of Casey Research

Please click on MRCI long term silver chart and note that once silver moved out of it’s final (for 1979) consolidation, it spiked up 3 months (about) and that was it. I’m not saying silver will spike now, only that it could, and likely most generic black boxes don’t include that data.

Normally, it seems that silver is sold hard if it opens significantly higher then the previous days high if price is a bit extended. Maybe not this time???

April 1, 2011

FT: Fund managers look beyond the dollar for a base — Thank you Interactive Brokers.

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 10:49 am

For the past few weeks I have wanted to mention how handy it is to buy Loonies and sell frn’s with a click. It is so convenient to easily keep the account mostly in Canadian dollars. But I did not have a nice way to present the info. Then comes this Financial Times article that suggests it’s not just me who wants a trading account bases on something that is not destined to zero.

Of course the offered suggestion is a basket of currencies, all of which history says are going to zero someday. But this is just a lead in to using special drawing rights. Nice try.

What option was missing? The one that has been used for 90% of 5,000 years. The only issue is that Interactive Brokers won’t, as of yet, allow gold as a base currency. Someday…

March 15, 2011

Silver, bonds, USD update for March 15…

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:49 pm

Not really interested in markets much right now…

The 2008 and 2011 correlation is no more.

The main thing noted in the 2011 backwardation is the 12 month is not following the other months up. One could speculate that near term demand has been supplied, but not over all demand. (???)

COMEX is about the same.

Bonds are not acting like a safe haven.

Nor is the dollar index. And if price is trading below all the major yearly trendlines, it can go a lot lower.

Here is something that is going up a lot more in price than almost anything today: Iodine pills on eBay. From $20 to $520 $610 for 28 doses. There are other sources. Yesterday, a person could have bought 5 kg’s — 11,000 doses — for less.

March 3, 2011

Debt: US dollar index, bonds, eurodollars: less than perky

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:01 pm

What the abundance of federal reserve notes are based on:

Eurodollars, (time deposits denominated in U.S. dollars at banks outside the United States) are a huge market. And they are bearish.

The dollar index (which is different than the “USD”) is taking it’s sweet time to even bounce.

References
+ US dollar nearing the supporting trendline for the 5th time

March 2, 2011

US dollar nearing the supporting trendline for the 5th time

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:40 pm

James Turk on King World News: Eric you have been saying all along that the dollar isn’t bouncing and it now appears the dollar is ready to fall off of the edge of a cliff. The dollar collapse is going to be the next big story. If I am right and the dollar really starts to dive, the implications are global in nature and I truly believe this event will shock the world.

This is what the world is valuing the past 5 days:

Surely priorities were different after the reported Libyan air strike?? Nope.

Weekly dollar index:

Monthly dollar index at MRCI.com

Daily chart:

Xiphos Trading’s take on the dollar index.

February 21, 2011

The pendulum seems to be swinging with alacrity from made up things to real things.

Filed under: Editorials — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:21 pm

A friend just pointed this out to me: From Finviz.com:

I assume the pendulum is now going to swing hugely as it corrects all the malinvestment. We don’t have an efficient tax, regulation and representation system. Too much is based on fait fractional “reserve” debt seemingly powered by crooks and ignorance.

I really hope the new system is cannibalizes the old one as things change. Otherwise:
Ticker guy, “It’s not going to be pretty, and I hope Americans are ready for it.
– Turd Fergusen, “The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us and it is coming faster than you think. You should be “preparing accordingly” right now.”

References:
+ Preparing for open ended events…
+ Go long grub. Mountain House not directly selling #10 cans due to demand
+ When will it all finally blow up?

January 31, 2011

US dollar index is pretty weak

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:16 pm

The Dollar Index is currently about 58% EUR, and 14% JPY, and 12% CAD.

It’s also weak.
+ Weekly CCI is very oversold. From these levels a bounce has typically lasted 3-4 days. And that was with the monthly CCI falling. The current bounce lasted 2 days and on the 3rd day opened at the 2nd days low.
– In the last 15 trading days price has only closed up twice. The most recent time this happened was September 2009. Price had 2 more pushes to the downside over the next 2 months.
– EMA’s all falling.

All that could put price at new lows…

…which are now consolidating beneath the long term monthly lows. Nothing bullish about that. I really have to let go of shorting stocks: Notional values will likely just keep rising in general.

Xiphos Trading’s weekly chart.

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