Market Curiosity: Exploring Markets And Systems

June 8, 2011

Debt, and a caution on the markets

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:04 pm

+ The charts are simply wonderful! Zero Hedge: Guest Post: Death By Debt

– 2 good traders have mentioned cautions.

SilverGoldSilver: Warning: That which I have feared has come upon me “I’ll stick my neck on the line and say it again: they need a reason for QE3, like TARP in 2008. I am suspect of a major downside move in the markets… I am assuming the move will be swift and brutal. I’m not saying it will be tomorrow, but with no clear indication of more printing, be ready for the carnage.”

Xiphos Trading: Hate to say it, but market looks setup for a mini crash I think into Armstrong’s turn date of June 13-14th… Sabre: overnight risk is ASTRONOMICAL IMO

Inverted put call ratio for 9 months.

Inverted put call ratio for 3 years.

May 23, 2011

Silver backwardation update — not much change

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:46 am

I tend to think silver will keep consolidating in this area or lower until mid June. An interesting long term silver chart from Xiphos Trading has a Fibbinachi line at 23 frn’s/oz which is where I suppose the deepest correction might result.

CME silver is still in partial backwardation with a spread of 1.15 frn’s/oz. LBMA 12 month SIFO seems to be dipping a bit more than the other months.

May 12, 2011

Looking to short bonds via Eurodollars…

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:09 am

The issuse with bonds is I have read somewhere the fed/gov (not federal, nor gov) is buying most of them (70% already?). If so, why would the price EVER go down unless they wanted them too??? I don’t know. But I do know Eurodollars are way more liquid than bonds and the fed/gov might not be able to buy as many. (Eurodollars have over 10 times the open interest, AND 10 times the notional value per contract verses bonds.)

Xiphos_Trading on TLT: Unable to hold its NL breakout. May take another go, may go get sold hard too.

Seems to me price has at least one more rise left in it.

April 8, 2011

Silver update April 8th

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 1:08 am

Silver is up a significant amount overnight. And importantly, bonds and the dollar index are both down while most everything else is up. But this is after hours. If these trends continue tomorrow I would think they will stick.

quotes.ino.com

Xiphos_Trading
USDX looks so sorry & sick tonight. Shelve ur preconceived notions of what commodities “should” be doing. These moves lately are FX driven.

To me, this could mean that enough of the background machinations are spilling to the forefront that things could start to shift quickly. There is so much going on, and I am busy right now with other things, I don’t even try to keep up.

+ Surprising Observations From TrimTabs: “Are Central Bankers Loading Up On Gold?”
+ A breakout of this consolidation expanding wedge is huge. A halfway consolidation in time & price.
+ More Trump: Smackdown on MSNBC
+ Marc Faber – Mr. Bernanke is a Murderer of the Middle Class
++ (Excellent charts!) Silver Is Getting Too Popular… Right? By Jeff Clark of Casey Research

Please click on MRCI long term silver chart and note that once silver moved out of it’s final (for 1979) consolidation, it spiked up 3 months (about) and that was it. I’m not saying silver will spike now, only that it could, and likely most generic black boxes don’t include that data.

Normally, it seems that silver is sold hard if it opens significantly higher then the previous days high if price is a bit extended. Maybe not this time???

March 5, 2011

Are linguistics suggesting silver just passed the tipping point?? 4 silver dimes=$10.25

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 2:45 pm

If true, silver will continue to rise relentlessly.

Traders are starting to add linguistics like “recognition”, “recognize”, and “realize” in explaining recent silver price action.

Tipping point:
+ The moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point.
+ Tipping point (sociology):“…the event of a previously rare phenomenon becoming rapidly and dramatically more common. The phrase was coined in its sociological use by Morton Grodzins, by analogy with the fact in physics that adding a small amount of weight to a balanced object can cause it to suddenly and completely topple.”

Xiphos Trading wrote a day ago: “Once one side is overrun (bulls or bears).. The strong side can spend a lot less energy/money to take the price considerably higher or lower.”

It seems “enough” traders get it. If so, is the next phase when “enough” people get it and bid up silver stocks??

If there really has been a tipping point, demand is now in control and the price suppressors have much less power than they used to. People, including the suppressors, will recognize this.

A 90% silver dime has currently equals 2.57 federal reserve notes (not federal, nor reserve, just debt)

References
+ Valuing things in terms of mass
+ How high can silver go before a stout pullback? Backwardation and price patterns

February 28, 2011

Wonderful story of lady making money directly publishing her own stories on Kindle

Filed under: Favorite Posts — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 9:56 am

Stories like this inspire me!

Thanks to Xiphos Trading for re-tweeting 26-Year-Old Is Making Millions Cutting Out Traditional Publishers With Amazon Kindle

Amanda Hocking is the best-selling “indie” writer on the Kindle store… She gets to keep 70% of her book sales — and she sells around 100,000 copies per month. By comparison, it’s usually thought that it takes a few tens of thousands of copies sold in the first week to be a New York Times bestselling writer… by lowering the prices, she can make more on volume, especially impulse buys. Meanwhile e-books cost nothing to print, you don’t have to worry about print volumes, shelf space, inventory, etc.

… [she] published stories on her blog before turning to Kindle… out of the top 25 best-selling indie Kindle writers, only 6 were previously affiliated with a publishing house.

She clears up a few things via Misinformation & Corrections

References
+ Mauboussin’s excellent “Blaming the Rat: Incentives, Motivation, And How They Interact”

February 14, 2011

Long SA since price looks to be breaking out of a 6 month channel (updated May 15) -78%

Filed under: -75 to -99%, Long Calls, Mistakes — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 11:28 am

Bought May 34 calls at 1.80. Okay to buy out of the money calls since if price breaks out, it could make it to 37.

+ Price had a decent tentative breakout on okay volume.
+ EMA’s all trending up.
+ Monthly and weekly CCI’s moving up.
– Daily CCI not very low, but not expected if a true breakout.
– No follow through volume.
+ Float is only 36 million shares.
+ 14% of shares are shorted.
+ The short ratio is over 12. That’s a fair number of days.

Feb 23: Everything seems fine. Especially like the short ratio being 12.6 with a low float.

Xiphos Trading’s monthly SA chart, “Largest % of float short of any gold/silver miner of size”.

May 15: I was greedy regarding silver in April. Paying attention to illusions does not produce gains in anything but experience-the-hard-way. Made a mistake of not taking partial profit and then a few weeks later “hoping.” Out at 0.40 (I think).

February 13, 2011

Copper in partial backwardation too

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 2:22 pm

Xiphos Trading just Tweeted this. (How could I have missed it??!) I don’t have a historical reference, but isn’t 13% a sizable backwardation?

References
+ MCRI’s long term copper chart.

February 5, 2011

Outlook for February’s 2nd week (fixed)

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 12:08 pm

James Turk summery: Anyway you look at it, last week was a very positive one for the precious metals. The big news is the upside breakout above 3.5% in the yield of 10-year T-notes. With rising commodity prices across the board, people around the world are increasingly recognizing that inflation is getting worse. Higher T-note and T-bond yields are just more evidence.

Xiphose Tradings take on bonds and USD: Way I see it; it’s kind of simple. Time to get back some of that tax monies paid. 😛

Even if pullbacks happen, they should be temporary. Long silver, gold, grains, hydrocarbons, stocks; short debt.

Raymond Merriman: There is just no stopping this “Asset Inflation Express” in stocks. As stated so many times in this column over the past year, as well as both the Forecast 2010 and 2011 books, the Jupiter and Uranus transit into Aries is likely to bullish for stocks into the middle of this year… But now the geocosmic picture begins to change… The implication is that a correction will begin, or at least the market will likely pause in its upswing during this period.

A) + The inverted Put Call Ratio is neutral.
B) ± The daily Summation ratio ratio is rising again and overbought, like usual.
C) + The weekly Summation ratio is rising again.
D) + The NYSE Bullish percent is rising again.

Long?
VRTU MOS TRS O WCRX

Short?
Bonds, debt, on pullbacks. If I must short, it won’t be individual stocks, just the S&P 500.

December 28, 2010

Xiphos Trading’s: “Sabre’s Gold Market Reflections”

Filed under: Just Watching — Tags: , , , — Jeff Fitzmyers @ 8:21 am

It’s an awesome post! Ties together copper, stocks, gold and silver and gold and silver stocks.

Based on Charles Bidermann over at Trim Tabs the US Government is the only buyer of US stocks…

That means that based on government buying of US stocks and Rydex, there is exactly zero buying of precious metal stocks…

The silver metal market is in all likelihood gone for a very long time and they only way to garner supply is thru the stocks themselves.

… but like all massive manipulations, sooner or later they blow up. Inevitably someone breaks ranks and the game will be afoot. That is what I am looking for in 2011.

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